Jake Peavy, SP, San Diego Padres

June 13, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Ryan R. Bonini
Edited by Ryan Dodson

In the world of fantasy sports and normal sports for that matter, sometimes it is amazing what a difference a year can make.

Entering last season, fantasy owners were ready to jump all over San Diego Padres starting pitcher Jake Peavy as one of the better pitching options in leagues. By the end of the year, those who had him were pretty Peavy'd off!

Looking Back...

On the heels of his 2005 season, which saw him record 13 wins (seven losses), a 2.88 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP with a solid 1.06 strikeout-per-inning average, Peavy looked like he was on his way to bigger and brighter things in 2006.

To make matters even worse, fantasy owners now had back-to-back seasons of strong play to bank on. During 2004, Peavy won 15 games, averaged 1.04 strikeouts per inning, had a 2.27 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Peavy strained his oblique early in spring training that season. He also had his season interrupted at the end of May due to a strained tendon in his forearm. He was only able to pitch 166 1/3 innings that season.

He also has had some minor ailments such as cutting his hand taking out the trash, and he missed a start due to shoulder soreness late in 2005. He also suffered a broken rib in the 2005 National League Divisional Series against the St. Louis Cardinals that hindered his performance.

After his strong production in 2004 and 2005, fantasy owners couldn't help but become excited about his potential in 2006. Unfortunately for fantasy owners and the Padres, Peavy posted a miserable 4.09 ERA, while winning just 11 games (14 losses).

He missed a start in 2006 due to shoulder tendonitis. He still averaged a strong 1.06 strikeouts per inning, but fantasy owners didn't expect his earned run average to balloon like it did, and he fell well below expectations of the higher draft picks invested in him.

A New Year, A New Result

Peavy has been dynamite for fantasy owners thus far. He's posting a career-best 1.97 ERA and is averaging 1.09 strikeouts per inning pitched. He once again has a dominant K-rate, his WHIP is down to 1.02 and he is sporting a 7-1 record this season. If you own him, life is good right now for at least one of your starting pitchers!

In 13 games, he has only allowed 19 earned runs. With 95 strikeouts under his belt, fantasy owners are tickled pink they were able to land him at a reduced rate in many fantasy drafts earlier this spring.

He's also quickly showing last year was more an aberration than an early decline to what appeared a very promising career.

Fantasy Value Moving Forward

His fantasy value may not be any better than it is right now, which forces fantasy owners in dire straights at other positions to start considering moving him.

That begs the question: Should you trade him?

Parting ways with a red-hot player is tough; but, sometimes, it's necessary. It's even more difficult when you look back through his 2004 and 2005 seasons and realize he's more than capable of continuing with a solid K-Rate and bolstering a productive balance to your win column. You also must take into consideration his handful of injuries.

Looking back over the last three years, however, Peavy offers a mixed bag of results during the final three months of the season and could start to frustrate his owners during the month of July.

Table: July Production - Last Three Seasons

Year	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	K	ERA	WHIP
2004	6	6	3	1	0	0	35.1	31	11	11	4	30	2.80	1.27
2005	5	5	1	2	0	0	31.2	30	16	16	3	36	4.55	1.23
2006	4	4	1	2	0	0	24	29	19	19	3	27	7.13	1.75

The last two seasons are alarming when considering his ERA bounced to 4.55 in 2005 and 7.13 during 2006, which could point to troubling times during the month of July this year.

Table: August Production - Last Three Seasons

Year	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	K	ERA	WHIP
2004	5	5	4	0	0	0	31	20	9	7	2	32	2.03	0.87
2005	6	6	4	2	0	2	44.2	33	11	11	4	51	2.22	1.01
2006	6	6	2	3	0	0	37.2	30	13	12	3	38	2.87	1.17

Despite his struggles in July, Peavy has come back nicely each of the past two seasons during the month of August. With 2.22 and 2.87 respectively over the past two years in the ERA column and sound K-rates, August is a month Peavy could help put your fantasy team over the top if you're in a tight race for your league's crown.

Table: September Production - Last Three Seasons

Year	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	K	ERA	WHIP
2004	6	6	3	3	0	0	40.1	37	15	10	4	47	2.23	1.21
2005	4	4	1	1	0	0	26.2	24	7	6	1	19	2.03	1.24
2006	6	6	4	1	0	1	40.2	32	11	11	3	41	2.43	1.08

Much like August, September should make Peavy's fantasy owners smile again this year if history holds true. Again, like August, he has delivered to close out the season; he's held strong numbers in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and wins with only one year where he had a strikeout rate less than one per inning pitched.

Unless you are simply loaded at pitcher, Peavy should be off-limits in trades right now barring a ridiculous deal you simply cannot say no to. Be prepared to ride through a potentially rough July, as he has historically struggled during that month.

If you can hold back the frustration he could bring during that time, August and September will be the months you should be able to reap the rewards of your patience. If you are forced to move him, be ready to make a move before July hits because his value could start decreasing with a couple rocky starts.

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Ryan R. Bonini

Founding KFFL in 1996, Bonini serves as KFFL's General Manager and VP of technology for KFFL's parent company, USA TODAY SPORTS Media Group. Bonini was named the 2009 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year by the FSWA and received honors with the Best Fantasy Football Series in '10, making him the first two-time FSWA football award winner.

His work has been found in USA Today, Yahoo! Sports, FOX Sports, CBS Sports, NFL.com, and many others. He has also been featured on numerous radio programs around the country. Bonini is a member of the PFWA, FSWA and FSTA.

Follow Ryan on Twitter @ryanbonini

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