Hunter Pence, OF, Houston Astros

May 29, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Brad Berreman
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Since making his major league debut April 28 of this season, Houston Astros outfielder Hunter Pence has made his mark on the team, hitting .365 with four home runs, 18 runs batted in and three stolen bases in 27 games. He also has a .606 slugging percentage and .400 on-base percentage in that time. As a result of his stellar play, he has taken over the starting job in center field for the Astros. Pence was named co-National League Player of the Week for the week of May 14-20, after hitting .591 during that week.

Background

The Astros were having a difficult time keeping Pence in the minors. They had traded outfielder Willy Taveras to the Colorado Rockies this past offseason, knowing full well that Pence was their center fielder of the future. The plan, however, was to have Chris Burke play in center until second baseman Craig Biggio retired. Burke would then move to second, and Pence would duly take over in the outfield.

Plans changed when Burke struggled at the plate. He was hitting .238 and had struck out nearly as many times (18) as he had hits (19) in 80 at-bats. With a career .256 average, it was becoming apparent that Burke, 27, didn't yet have the tools to succeed as an everyday major leaguer. Pence, on the other hand, seemed more than ready.

This season, at Triple-A Round Rock, Pence was hitting .341 with three home runs, 19 RBI and two steals in 85 at-bats. He had also struck out 14 times and walked eight times, lending some evidence to his reputation for patience at the plate. The scouting report on him says that he does a lot of things well, even though he's not the most natural ballplayer. Pence has good bat speed, tremendous strength and a great makeup.

Pence in the Majors

Here are a couple of interesting stats about Pence so far in his major league career: 13 strikeouts and five walks in 104 at-bats. Neither of the former numbers really stand out as excessively high, but the walk total is extremely low. Pence has taken a base on balls roughly once every 21 at-bats so far this season. He has only struck out once every eight at-bats, though, too.

As seen in his minor league numbers, such a positive rate is something that Pence should be able to maintain. In his minor league career, he homered once every 18 at-bats or so. In the majors, he has gone yard roughly once every 26 at-bats. He could conceivably pick up the pace in that department. However, it's unrealistic to expect Pence to maintain such a high average. He had a career .302 average in the minors. Historically he has hit both left-handers and right-handers well, and he's continuing that trend in the bigs. Once major league pitchers get more of a book on him, though, and perhaps try to prey on his affinity for sliders out of the strike zone, reality may set in.

Bottom Line

Pence is unlikely to be available in your fantasy league right now due to the fantastic start to his career. He is owned in approximately 74 percent of fantasy leagues polled. If your team needs help in the outfield, Pence could be a good player to try to trade for. Waiting until the price isn't likely to be quite so high would be a good idea, however. If you own him and need help at other spots but are set in the outfield, Pence could be a good player to sell high right now.

It is reasonable to expect Pence to finish the season right around .290-.300, with 20 home runs and 80-85 RBI. Obviously, because of that, owners should expect somewhat of a drop-off. However, Pence is a gamer, so it shouldn't be very dramatic. Throw in the possibility of double-digit steals, and you have a pretty solid outfield option. He seems to be in the major leagues to stay and has a firm grip on the center field job, so playing time issues seem to be nonexistent. Since he is only 24 years old, his value in keeper leagues is even greater.

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Brad Berreman
Brad Berreman has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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