Roy Halladay, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

May 25, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Scott Ehrlich
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

For a starting pitcher who made his mark as a workhouse by throwing over 500 innings between 2002 and 2003, Toronto Blue Jays right-handed pitcher Roy Halladay has spent a lot of time on the disabled list the last few seasons. After Halladay threw a remarkable 266 innings in 2003, he threw just under 275 innings combined the next two years. Just when it looked like all that work had worn out his arm, Halladay rebounded for 220 terrific innings last season. Now, with the big Denver native back on the disabled list, owners must be wondering is this just a bump in the road or the beginning of another injury-plagued season for Halladay?

Table: Roy Halladay - Statistics - (2002-07)

Year	W-L	GS	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2002	19-7	34	239.1	223	62	168	2.93	1.19
2003	22-7	36	266	253	32	204	3.25	1.07
2004	8-8	21	133	140	39	95	4.20	1.35
2005	12-4	19	141.2	118	18	108	2.41	.96
2006	16-5	32	220	208	34	132	3.19	1.10
2007	4-2	8	57.2	58	9	38	4.37	1.16

For those who believe the former, some good news. An appendectomy is not elbow tendonitis or a torn labrum as far as pitcher injuries go. The routine treatment shouldn't have any season-long effect on Halladay. Add to this the news that Halladay looks like he'll be back by the first week in June, nearly a month earlier than the initial prognosis, and this injury appears to be much ado about nothing. Meanwhile, in Halladay's absence, the struggling Blue Jays have righted the ship, and closer Jeremy Accardo has thus far proven more than a capable replacement for injured left-handed pitcher B.J. Ryan. Therefore, when Halladay returns, it will be to a much better situation than the one he was in when he last had an appendix.

There is even a silver lining in this injury. After throwing 47.1 innings in April, Halladay threw just 10.1 in May. Even with his injury, he's still tied for 12th in the American League in innings pitched. When one considers that his strikeout rate is the highest it has been in four years, perhaps taking most of May off will be a service to Halladay later in the season.

With Halladay's career ERA being nearly half a run better after the All-Star break compared to before, this lessened wear and tear on his arm could make a nice difference. Considering Halladay, if he comes back in early June, is still on pace for 200 innings. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, so now would be a great chance to acquire him, especially if an owner hasn't heard about his positive prognosis and my want to dump him cheaply. Consider the low-end production on Halladay from this point on equal to his 2004 numbers and the high-end equal to his 2005 numbers, with the likely results in the middle. Still, with the worst-case scenario still being solid, and Halladay's penchant for freak injuries, he should still be a must-start every time he pitches after returning from the disabled list.

If you need a pitcher to supplant Halladay in your lineup, take a look at Minnesota Twins starter Boof Bonser. In his last two starts, he won both games while posting a 2.25 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 17 strikeouts in 12 innings. He's available in 88 percent of leagues polled.

Another option is San Francisco Giants starter Noah Lowry. He is 5-4 with a 2.69 ERA on the season. He won't produce a really good WHIP or many strikeouts, but he is pitching well enough to help your ERA and wins categories.

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Scott Ehrlich

Scott Ehrlich has been involved with sports for the last four years. He spent parts of three seasons working with various minor league baseball teams and internet sports sites. In 2004 he hosted his own sports talk show on 790AM in South Florida, featuring guests from all four major sports. Scott currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, FL but will be attending law school at the University of Florida in August, where he hopes to one day be the guy responsible for holding your favorite player out of training camp.

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