J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

May 25, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Ryan R. Bonini
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Let us introduce you to Milwaukee Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy.

Who? While this third-year standout is not a household name, he is one fantasy players have started to drool over.

Through Friday, May 25, Hardy is hitting .311 with 41 RBI and 31 runs. Even more impressively, he has gone yard 14 times. His 14 homers are best in the league at the shortstop position and tied for second best amongst all batters.

We'd love to also impress you with his swiped bags on the year, but, unfortunately, he has yet to record any, so we'll just have to "settle" with him being a four-category hero.

He first started showing signs of life in his rookie season. While his production before the All-Star game in 2005 was nothing to write home about, his production the following half of the season was impressive.

That year, he hit .187 with 19 RBI, one home run and 22 runs the first half of the year. He followed it up by hitting .308 with 31 RBI, eight home runs and 24 runs in the final 57 games of the year.

His second season, however, never made it past May due to injury problems.

Injury Concerns?

His 2006 season was ended prematurely when he elected to undergo surgery to repair a loose tendon in his right ankle. In his short career, he has already dealt with ankle, back, toe, hip and foot injuries.

Hardy played 35 games in 2006, and he was only able to make 124 games in 2005.

Are his past injury problems something to be alarmed by? Should a fantasy owner start to sell high now? If injuries could be predicted, life for fantasy players would be much easier. Unfortunately, that's not the case, so we can only go with what we have to work with.

Will Hardy Fizzle?

All things considered, Hardy is on pace for a season that would have him hit 50 home runs with 146 RBI and 110 runs. That's fantasy MVP quality right there, baby!

The reality of him reaching those numbers, however, is slim. While he's playing lights-out right now, one has to realize Hardy hit .247 in 2005 and .242 in 2006. He's playing above his means right now, so keep that in the back of your mind while you continue to ride the hot hand.

Looking back at his time in the minors, Hardy never was a lights-out player, either. In Triple-A ball during 2004, he only hit .277 in 26 games. Furthermore, he hit just four homers with 20 RBI during his time there.

In extended action in Double-A in 2003, he hit .279 with Huntsville. That season he cranked 12 homers, 62 RBI and had 67 runs scored. He did manage to show some signs of life in the stolen bases department, recording six that season.

With that in mind, we go back to our thought process of him playing above his means. While he should continue to be rock solid, one has to expect his numbers to start to decline as the season unfolds. Don't get us wrong, that's not saying he's going to go from boom to bust overnight. However, what it is saying is you have to be realistic about your expectations of him as the season continues to plug along.

Expect to see his batting average and home run production lessen as time goes along. His runs should remain solid as long as his .353 on-base percentage doesn't decline much because of Milwaukee's potent offense, which is fifth in the National League in runs.

Hardy has, for the most part, seen the majority of his plate appearances in the No. 2 spot in the batting order. The team has first baseman Prince Fielder, who is hitting .287 with 14 home runs so far this season, working in the third or cleanup spot and outfielder Geoff Jenkins, who is hitting .290 with nine home runs, usually hitting in the sixth spot against right-handers.

Outfielder Bill Hall, who is hitting .268 with six home runs, also works the cleanup spot at times, but he has been dropped down the order because of his slow start; his track record suggests that he'll pick it up soon, though. With that firepower, the team has the necessary talent behind Hardy in the batting order to continue pushing him around the diamond. The Brewers have attempted to give the bats a boost, too, with the call-up of the organization's top hitting prospect, third baseman Ryan Braun.

Looking Ahead

Unfortunately, unless you play in a league all by yourself or with complete clowns, Hardy isn't someone you can acquire on the waiver wire in your league. Unless you're willing to give up the farm for him, he's probably not someone you can acquire via a trade right now, either.

Hardy, 24, is making himself look like a gem in any type of fantasy league; this holds especially true for those of you that have him and play in keeper leagues.

While it may be some time before he's able to be considered elite, Hardy is poised to continue contributing weekly to a rather slim position at which fantasy owners have, in the past, found themselves playing the waiver-wire game if they don't land an upper-echelon starter.

Even with the thought process that his numbers will start coming back down to earth based on how he has done historically, now isn't the time you should look to sever ties with him unless trade offers you just cannot say no to start crossing your screen.

In the meantime, continue to ride the hot hand and don't think twice. If, down the stretch, he even continues to produce at a 70 percent clip of what he has done so far this year, fantasy owners may be hoping he has surgery to repair loose tendons every year! Thus far, it has worked like a charm.

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Ryan R. Bonini

Founding KFFL in 1996, Bonini serves as KFFL's General Manager and VP of technology for KFFL's parent company, USA TODAY SPORTS Media Group. Bonini was named the 2009 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year by the FSWA and received honors with the Best Fantasy Football Series in '10, making him the first two-time FSWA football award winner.

His work has been found in USA Today, Yahoo! Sports, FOX Sports, CBS Sports, NFL.com, and many others. He has also been featured on numerous radio programs around the country. Bonini is a member of the PFWA, FSWA and FSTA.

Follow Ryan on Twitter @ryanbonini

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