Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants

May 23, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Kent Wilson
Edited by Ryan Dodson

San Francisco starting pitcher Tim Lincecum, a 5-foot-11 right-hander out of the University of Washington, has generated more buzz since his call-up earlier this year than a sack full of angry hornets.

Drafted 10th overall in 2006, Lincecum was 4-0 with a 0.29 ERA and unearthly 0.74 WHIP at Triple-A Fresno this year when called upon to replace Russ Ortiz (elbow) in the rotation. Ahead of schedule, Giants management hoped he'd made adjustments after three so-so Spring Training appearances (6.43 ERA). 

His first start May 6 was a nationally broadcast game against the Philadelphia Phillies. The 22-year-old phenom struggled with control, walking five of 23 batters while surrendering two home runs in a no-decision. Not exactly the stuff of legend, but, five strikeouts, a 100-mph heater, K-generating curveball and bulldog mound presence garnered storybook attention.

Three starts later, Lincecum was 2-0 with a tidy 3.08 ERA. An iron-clad 1.03 WHIP and dominating 8.54 strikeouts per nine innings spoke of boundless potential. As the adage goes, to whom much is given, much is expected. And a lot is expected from Lincecum.

In 2006, the sociology major capped off an outstanding NCAA career going 12-4 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP (not to mention 199 Ks in 125 innings). This remarkable Husky also won the Golden Spikes Award (top collegiate player), was voted both first-team All-American and Pac-10 pitcher of the year (the pitching award for the second time) and displayed an all-around outstanding pedigree - definitely Best in Show. He then breezed through two stops at Single-A (1.73 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 16.73 strikeouts per nine innings) before being shut down after reaching a ceiling for innings pitched.

What's not to like?

Considered small by many scouts (an inch under 6-foot, 170 pounds), there is concern that his modest frame will break down under the repetitive stress of his powerful delivery. These are concerns that the athletic pitcher (he does back-flips with ease and walks on his hands to rest his feet) has taken in stride.

Many, including Lincecum, compare his body type to Houston Astros starting pitcher Roy Oswalt. 

"He's one of the guys who helped me motivate myself to say size doesn't matter when people said I was too small," said Lincecum. 

Ironically, Lincecum has come up against his Houston doppelganger twice this season, and in both cases has come out on top.  

Finally, there are two areas of concern in Lincecum's otherwise unblemished chart. 

The first is bases on balls. He is the Pac-10 leader in career strikeouts (491), but he's also the University of Washington record holder for walks allowed (216). In his final collegiate year he issued a free pass 4.52 times per nine innings. Buried in his WHIP by an outstanding strikeout rate was a little wildness. He did, however, show progressively more control each year in college. After walking five in his MLB debut, Lincecum has walked only three in the next 22 innings. This seems to be under control.

The second concern, and perhaps the most disturbing, is the number of pitches Lincecum has thrown per start. Two words: Tommy John. Young power arms, in theory at least, are to be nurtured and brought along slowly. Initially on a 100-pitch count, four games into his MLB career Lincecum's rate was 103.3 after being allowed to close out some late innings. This is something to keep an eye on, both for the short term and long haul. Has anyone heard from Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Mark Prior lately? His pitch count per start in his rookie year was 107.1 and was widely deemed as unconscionable abuse.  

Owned in more than 75 percent of leagues, a healthy Lincecum is the straight (and late breaking!) goods. That number will be 100 percent before long. Get him if you can, if not, start looking for the deed on the family farm. You won't be stung.  

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Kent Wilson
Kent has been with KFFL since 2007.

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