Josh Beckett, SP, Boston Red Sox

May 23, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Joe Loncarich
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Boston Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett had a fantastic start in 2007, notching wins in his first seven starts while posting a 2.66 ERA with 47 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.03. Unfortunately, he was forced to the disabled list with a cut on his right middle finger. 

Finger injuries are nothing new to Beckett as he succumbed to blisters numerous times while with the Florida Marlins. In 2006, the Red Sox kept the problems under control, which led to Beckett reaching 200 innings pitched for the first time in his career. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, outside of innings pitched, it was the worst season of Beckett's career.

Beckett has shown flashes of brilliance, but his 3.9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is way out of line with anything he has ever done before in the regular season in his career as he's never even had a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio before this season. The eerie thing about Beckett's 2007 is how similar it is to his amazing playoff run in 2003.

Table: Josh Beckett's Playoff/2007 Comparison

YEAR	G	IP	ERA	K	BB
2003 Playoffs	6	42.2	2.11	47	12
2007	8	50.2	2.66	47	12

As Cubs and Yankees fans will remember, Beckett was really, really good during those playoffs. Since he's had more innings pitched in 2007, his control would appear to be better while he is not striking out as many guys. Still, striking out nearly a batter per inning is something only elite starters can do. 

Some will point to his strong start last year of going 3-0 in his first four starts with a 2.54 ERA, but, he struck out only 15 in 28.1 innings. Therefore he was not the dominant pitcher he has been so far this year, so we do not believe that this is just a good start to the season.

His BABIP is .270, a little lower than league average, but nothing to get concerned about, especially considering his BABIP was just .265 last year in the worst season of his career. We do not believe this is anything to worry about.

Beckett has had 18 percent of fly balls stay in the infield this year, as opposed to 9.8 percent last year, but he did have 17 percent of flies stay in the infield in 2004, so this rate is not unprecedented for him. His home run rate is extremely low, so expect his ERA to rise once his home run level gets back to normal levels, because only 5 percent of fly balls going for home runs is not a ratio that Beckett will be able to sustain.

The finger problems are an ongoing problem for Beckett, but the Red Sox have done an excellent job of managing them since he joined them last year. Still, we won't be surprised if they resurface. Considering this was a pretty severe cut on his finger and he should be coming back in the minimum 15 days, don't expect him to miss much time if a blister does reoccur for him. 

Beckett got rocked for two reasons in 2006, he had the fifth most walks in the American League, and he tied for giving up the second most home runs in the majors. He has improved both of these categories an immense amount in 2007. Beckett has raved about new pitching coach Jeff Farrell, so it may be that Farrell has helped Beckett find a way to use his incredible stuff while still keeping control of his pitches. If he can harness control of his pitches while keeping the ball in the park more often, there is no reason that this couldn't be a career year for Beckett. 

How's he going to react coming back? It's tough to say. Right now, it seems as though everything is fine as he is scheduled to pitch against the Cleveland Indians on May 29 when he is eligible to get off the disabled list. That's as good of a thing a person can see as a Beckett owner, so we believe that he will continue to have an excellent year. Expecting him to keep his ERA in the mid twos is a little lofty, but an ERA between 3.10 and 3.30 is not out of the question. That would be an excellent accomplishment in the American League.

If needing someone to replace Beckett for just one start before he comes back, we recommend St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Anthony Reyes. When looking at record and ERA, Reyes may seem like a ridiculous pickup, but he has been a much better pitcher than those stats show. He is striking out over seven batters per nine innings while walking less than three. He has induced many more groundballs this year as well. His problem has been that he has let 46 percent of runners that get on base to score so far this year, which is more bad luck than anything else. Pitchers on average allow a little less than 30 percent of runners to score, so expect this to even out and help his ERA. Plus, he is playing the Nationals on Friday, who have scored the second fewest runs in the majors this year.

A good long-term option would be Minnesota Twins starter Boof Bonser who is striking out over a batter per inning this year. In his last five starts, he has a 2.10 ERA while striking out 34 batters. Control is a problem as his WHIP is 1.44, but because of the strikeouts, he still makes for an excellent fantasy option.

Again, we believe that Beckett will continue to be a dominant pitcher in the American League. This is not a time to sell unless you get blown away by an offer. He has been throwing without pain already, so it does not appear that this injury will affect him in the long run.  

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Joe Loncarich
Joe has been a contributor to KFFL since 2007.

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