Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

May 16, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Caleb Benoit
Edited by Ryan Dodson

If fantasy owners could count on one thing, it's production from St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols - until now.

After averaging Hall-of-Fame-type numbers the last three years (.331/45/126), Pujols has had a brutal first quarter of the 2007 season, disappointing owners that spent a top three pick or $30-plus on him. He's on pace for 26 homers and 92 RBI. Here are his numbers so far:

Table: Albert Pujols' 2007 stats

Month	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
April	92	13	6	15	0	.250
May	47	4	0	6	0	.234
Total	139	17	6	21	0	.245

Pujols' April was written off as a slow start, and he started to heat up as the month wore on, but his May numbers have been even worse. Even more frustrating is that there's no easy explanation.

It hard to blame Pujols' performance on injury, and he reiterated this week that he's physically healthy. He has played in all of the Cardinals' 37 games, and while he has complained of having sore legs this season, he played through a myriad of nagging injures in 2006 to post the best season of his career.

Also, Pujols' contact rate (88 percent) and walk rate (11 percent) are close to his career levels. His hit rate (24 percent) is a bit on the low side, helping explain the .245 average to-date. And Cardinals' beat reporter Joe Strauss, for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, is optimistic better days are ahead.

"Pujols looked Tuesday night as if he has found something," Strauss said in his Wednesday chat on STLToday.com. "I won't bore you with technical stuff, but his hand position and how he opens his hips have been issues this season... Seeing him drive the ball to the opposite field three times in one game and be on several pitches that he fouled straight back suggest better times are approaching."

But, as Strauss also noted, the same thing was said in April. And even if Pujols does rebound, the weak offensive lineup that surrounds him in the order may suppress his RBI and runs totals. Consider:

• The Cardinals rank near the bottom of both leagues in runs (29th), on-base percentage (26th) and extra-base hits (30th).
• Oft-injured outfielder Jim Edmonds and third baseman Scott Rolen, who protect Pujols in the No. 4 and 5 slots, respectively, are off to even worse starts than Pujols. There may be no reason to even pitch to Pujols if neither Edmonds (.214/.282/.277) nor Rolen (.216/.287/.328) can improve or stay healthy.
• Leadoff man Adam Kennedy's on-base percentage is .282, only 10th best on his own team. The alternative is David Eckstein, who had only been getting on base at a .305 clip.
• Having Chris Duncan hitting in the No. 2 hole is a positive - his on-base percentage is highest on the team - but there has been talk of moving him down in the order.

So fantasy owners have two options - hold Pujols or trade him. Trading Pujols will depend largely your team needs and your league structure (as having Pujols at a low salary in keeper league, obviously, makes him much more valuable).

If you can find an owner in your league to give you near full-value for him, it might be wise to pull the trigger. Here are five examples of what he has been netting in trades this week:

• Roy Oswalt (HOU - SP), Adam Dunn (CIN - OF) and Hank Blalock (TEX - 3B)
• Roy Halladay (SP - TOR, pre-injury) and Manny Ramirez (BOS - OF)
• Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS - SP) and Mark Teixeira (TEX - 1B)
• Chad Cordero (WAS - CL) and Carlos Lee (HOU - OF)
• Dan Haren (OAK - SP) and Nick Swisher (OAK - OF, 1B)

It's hard not to consider offers like these strongly, especially if you have pitching needs and have the depth to fill the first base slot with a second-tier player. The gap between Pujols and a hitter like Teixeira or Ramirez isn't so big that it can't be filled by a fantasy ace like Matsuzaka, Oswalt or Haren.

Bottom line: scope out Pujols' trade value among owners in your league. If you can fill other holes and not take a huge cut in expected production from Pujols, then strongly consider making the deal. But don't deal the prize of your draft on the cheap. Even with the two-month slump and a weak supporting cast, he's a lock for 30 homers and 100 RBI - if he's even close to healthy.

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Caleb Benoit
Caleb has been with KFFL since 2007.

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