Roger Clemens, SP, New York Yankees

June 4, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Steven Kraser
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

The fact that starting pitcher Roger Clemens is coming back for a second stint with the New York Yankees should surprise very few due to New York's pitching woes during the first month of the season. What may surprise more casual observers are the terms of the deal, $28 million, prorated to about $18 million for the last four months of the season. It's no small fact that the $28 million figure represents the highest salary in baseball, even more than Clemens' new teammate and ex-foe, third baseman Alex Rodriguez.

The 2007 season has gone all wrong for the Yankees, who woke up June 4 12 1/2 games behind the Boston Red Sox in the AL East, so Clemens' arrival could certainly help a bit. The Yankees were consistently mentioned as the primary suitors for Clemens going back to last winter, and there is little doubt that they have the greatest need for him compared to the other potential suitors (Red Sox and Houston Astros). New York utilized 10 different starting pitchers (six of which are rookies) during the first 30 games of the season. That is the first time in major league history that this has occurred. The back of the starting rotation has been an issue all season for the Yankees.

The Game Plan

Clemens (groin) is slated to begin his New York comeback Saturday, June 9, after making three minor league starts. He recently suffered a strained groin and has had his first major league start of 2007 pushed back. While his first two starts prepping for his major league return were not spectacular, Clemens' last outing in Triple-A produced six scoreless innings with zero earned runs, two hits allowed and six strikeouts. The positive grades from observers all pointed to Clemens being ready to go. Potential fantasy owners should note that the June 9 activation date is a bit later than the 2007 start date speculated during the offseason.

The right-handed Clemens, turning 45 in August, now gives the Yankees a fourth potential formidable starting pitcher behind starting pitchers Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina. Out of those three, Pettitte is the only one not to spend some time on the disabled list this season, but Pettitte had experienced some problems with his back during spring training. Rookie Philip Hughes, who was injured (hamstring) during a bid for a no-hitter in his second career start May 1, now has another injury (ankle) to deal with and is not expected back to fill the fifth starting spot until mid July at the earliest. Rookie starting pitcher Kei Igawa, whom New York spent a total of $46 million on to bring him over from Japan, has been a huge disappointment so far (7.63 ERA with eight home runs allowed in 30 2/3 innings pitched). Igawa was optioned to the minor leagues last month and is continuing his mechanical adjustment program. Igawa may be a candidate to fill the fifth spot soon as two other rookie pitchers, Matt DeSalvo and Tyler Clippard, have been inconsistent over the past month in that starting spot. Starting pitcher Darrell Rasner, who has pitched fairly well (1-3, 4.01 ERA) this season, also joined the list of wounded Yankees pitchers (finger) and is out until at least until August.

In projecting Clemens' fantasy production for this season, the switch back to the American League should not be discounted, but Clemens could certainly expect significantly more run support from the Yankees' lineup than he had in Houston the past three seasons. Here's how Clemens fared on the mound during his stint with the Astros:

Table: Roger Clemens - Statistics (2004-06)

Team	W	L	ERA	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
Hou	18	4	2.98	33	0	214.1	169	76	71	15	79	218
Hou	13	8	1.87	32	1	211.1	151	51	44	11	62	185
Hou	7	6	2.30	19	0	113.1	89	34	29	7	29	102

Conclusion

Although Clemens is no longer a one strikeout-per-inning pitcher, his control has remained intact (2.8 walks per nine innings pitched). It should be noted that if Clemens follows the same path he had in 2006, his strikeout totals should start to ramp up beginning with his fourth or fifth start in 2007. Given the shakiness of the Yankees' bullpen, Clemens, by necessity, may be looked upon to go more than the 6.41 innings pitched per start he produced in 2006. However, given his advanced age, it's unrealistic to expect that from him every fifth day.

Bottom Line

Even at age 44, Clemens will most likely bolster New York's rotation significantly and help a tired bullpen as well. We don't expect his groin injury to set him back too much initially, athough he could be in for a shorter than usual outing in his first game back, likely no more than five innings. The expected additional run support may offset the potential increase in ERA with Clemens now facing American League lineups. However, the Yankees' offense has been in a slump over the past month with everyone in the lineup slumping, except shortstop Derek Jeter (.343 BA) and catcher Jorge Posada (.357). The team is also facing losing first baseman Jason Giambi (foot) for at least the next three weeks and possibly the remainder of the season.

Clemens can reasonably target winning about half (nine to 11 wins) of his expected 20-23 starts in 2007. The unsteady New York defense could potentially knock the projected wins down a notch. Given his production the past three seasons, Clemens could settle in as a No. 3 fantasy starting pitcher - putting up 100-120 innings pitched with 90-110 strikeouts to go with an ERA hovering around 4.00. He should be viewed as a pitcher with moderate risk and moderate award.

If you have held onto Clemens all season, you could have a nice trading piece in a couple of weeks. His hype will probably outweigh his production, but he should still be a good pitcher for the second half of the fantasy season.

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Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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