Mike Mussina, SP, New York Yankees

April 18, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Steven Kraser
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Usually, April 15 is a very early date in a baseball season to reflect anything of great significance within the overall scheme of the entire season. The New York Yankees may be re-thinking that philosophy, as they placed two starting pitchers, Mike Mussina (hamstring) and Carl Pavano (forearm), on the 15-day disabled list. The moves considerably decimate a starting rotation that has also seen starting pitchers Chien-Ming Wang (hamstring) and Jeffrey Karstens (elbow) on the disabled list since spring training. Starting pitcher Andy Pettitte is one of just two members of the projected rotation (Kei Igawa being the other) to avoid the disabled list - and even he had back problems that caused him to miss a start during the spring.

Mussina, seen as New York's No. 2 or No. 3 starter behind Wang and either just ahead of or behind Pettitte, struggled in his first start. He lasted just a few innings the next time on the mound before being pulled with his injury. Signed to a two-year deal for $22.5 million this offseason after the team declined a $17 million option, Mussina's status may be more of a concern to the Yankees than Pavano's situation given Mussina's consistency throughout his entire career.

THE GAME PLAN

The Yankees inserted starting pitcher Darrell Rasner in the rotation when Wang went down, and he has put up some pedestrian numbers (4.66 ERA with no wins in his first two starts). Now, with both Mussina and Pavano on the shelf, New York is hoping that the off-days in April allow for both pitchers to miss just two starts each. The team still needed to fill two roster spots and find at least one starting pitcher, and starting pitcher Chase Wright (lefthander from Double-A Trenton) was called up and won his first start on April 17. Relief pitcher Chris Britton (Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre) took the other open roster spot as the Yankees believe they can go with a four-man rotation in the short-term.

Rasner and Wang have been impressive in their rehab starts, and the team feels that Rasner could be back for a weekend series against the Boston Red Sox beginning April 20. Wang could follow a few days later in Tampa and make a start against the Devil Rays. Currently, given Pavano's dubious injury history while with the Yankees, Mussina is expected back on the mound first between the two. Seeing Wang, Mussina and Pavano with the big club can come no sooner, as the Yankees' starting pitching so far this season has been mediocre at best:

Table: Yankees' Starting Pitching Statistics (through April 17) 

W	L	ERA	G	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
3	2	4.85	12	0	59.1	68	40	32	7	21	28

CONCLUSION

A porous defense (14 total errors, most in the American League) has also not helped matters, and outside of Pettitte, the starting staff has underperformed. Averaging just about five innings per start, the starters have put too much pressure on a bullpen that has been very effective (2.39 ERA with 28 hits allowed in 52.2 innings pitched). That type of production from the bullpen will not hold up long if the starters do not step up.

BOTTOM LINE

Entering the 2007 season as a No. 3 fantasy starting pitcher at best, Mussina's recent trend of small-nature, nagging injuries may become more of a factor regarding his production. Even pitching in front of a lineup that will score a ton of runs, Mussina will likely be hard-pressed to reach his average numbers of 14 to 17 wins and 130 to 170 strikeouts. He should be viewed as a moderate-to-high risk with modest rewards in the 10-to-14-win and 120-strikeout range.

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Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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