Jorge Julio, CL, Florida Marlins

April 2, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Nothing frustrates fantasy baseball managers more than a shaky closer situation with no glaring go-to guy. If there are four publicized contenders for an unnamed closer position, it's not unusual to see all four relievers get drafted or picked up in highly competitive leagues. During the first three weeks of March, the Florida Marlins had more uncertainty regarding their closer role than any other club in the National League. Relievers Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom, Henry Owens and Taylor Tankersley were all vying for the glamorous ninth inning duties, but the collective four had a combined career total of four saves. The suspense of the closer competition ended on March 26 when the Florida Marlins acquired reliever Jorge Julio and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for pitching prospect Yusmeiro Petit. Florida general manager Larry Beinfest announced Julio, with 99 career saves, would immediately assume the closer role.

Table: Jorge Julio - Career Statistics

Year	Team	W	L	ERA	WHIP	SV	BS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K
2001	BAL	1	1	3.80	1.59	0	1	21.1	25	9	2	9	22
2002	BAL	5	6	1.99	1.21	25	6	68.0	55	15	5	27	55
2003	BAL	0	7	4.38	1.52	36	8	61.2	60	30	10	34	52
2004	BAL	2	5	4.57	1.42	22	4	69.0	59	35	11	39	70
2005	BAL	3	5	5.90	1.40	0	2	71.2	76	47	14	24	58
2006	NYM	1	2	5.06	1.45	1	0	21.1	21	12	4	10	33
2006	ARZ	1	2	3.83	1.25	15	4	44.2	31	19	6	25	55

Positives

The arrival of Julio in South Florida is a significant fantasy event considering the Marlins are expected to be a competitive team and the potential is there for a 30 to 35 save season, granted the Venezuelan can hang onto the job for the duration of the 2007 campaign. The move immediately catapults Julio in fantasy closer rankings over unsettled and cloudy situations in both Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. Julio will also be a more attractive stopper than the likes of Pittsburgh Pirates closer Salomon Torres and Kansas City Royals closer Octavio Dotel, both of whom will likely get fewer opportunities and have other factors affecting their status such as competition (Mike Capps) and injury concerns (Dotel's Tommy John recovery). 

Julio has a prototypical closer's arsenal and mentality. The 6-foot-1, 236-pound right-hander throws a mid-to-high 90s four-seamer and has a hard slider to complement it. Julio does not let off the gas, either, as he loves to go after hitters repeatedly with his fastball. The 27-year-old hurler's stretch with Arizona last season was his finest performance since the 2002 season. The Marlins are banking on Julio carrying over his success when he served as Arizona's closer late last season and racked up 15 saves. He averaged 12 strikeouts per nine innings last season, which was his best mark of dominance since entering the big leagues. His earned run average and WHIP with Arizona were also his lowest figures in five years as well.

The best thing Julio has going for him is experience, which seems to be overemphasized these days when clubs decide on pitchers to finish games. Julio has closed regularly in parts of four different seasons, and none of Florida's other relievers has a resume that even remotely resembles his in that role. For the time being, Julio's job appears safe because Florida lacks a clear-cut, alternative to challenge him. 

Negatives

Julio's track record as a closer can be characterized as mediocre at best. He has struggled with his command throughout his career, and he is not as dominating as he should be given his repertoire. Many of Julio's problems arise from his stubbornness. He rarely resorts to finesse when he gets into trouble. Instead, he tries to throw his fastball harder when circumstances get bad, and this approach results in more walks and bad pitch locations. Pitching coaches have tried to get Julio to take some velocity off his fastball, trading radar readings for pinpoint accuracy and movement.

Julio's saves will be a valuable contribution to a fantasy squad, but the buyer should be willing to withstand the negatives that are included with his services. This includes damage done to earned run average and WHIP. From 2003-05, Julio did not post an earned run average lower than 4.38 and a WHIP under 1.40. Fantasy mangers with Julio should also have a top ten closer on their staff to buffer the downside.

Secondary options

In case Julio falls flat on his face, fantasy players should be cognizant of four arms that could potentially get saves. Kevin Gregg has three years of bullpen and swingman experience under his belt with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The 6-foot-6, 235-pound right-hander posted a 4.14 earned run average in 2006, and he throws a lot of moving junk such as sinkers, splitters and sliders. His success can be attributed to his deceptive delivery as hitters have difficulty picking up the ball when he throws across his body during the conclusion of his windup. Gregg has the least amount of upside among the early-to-mid March closer candidates, but has the most experience working in his favor. Southpaw Taylor Tankersley saved three games at the end of the season last year for the big league club. Tankersley was Florida's first-round selection out of Alabama in 2004. The lefty fanned 46 batters in 41 innings pitched, which was largely responsible for his brilliant 2.85 earned run average. On the flipside, Tankersley was wild, and his 26 free passes and 1.44 WHIP are reflective of his inconsistency in throwing strikes.

Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens were both shipped to Florida in an offseason trade between the Marlins and New York Mets that sent Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick to the Big Apple. Both of them are 26-year-old, hard-throwing right-handers that are coming off successful seasons at Double-A Binghamton of the Eastern League. Lindstrom's heater gets up to triple digits, but he lacks quality secondary pitches. Lindstrom has yet to pitch above the Double-A level as well. Owens, a former catcher, put up phenomenal numbers at Binghamton last year. He struck out 74 hitters in 40 innings pitched and allowed just 29 baserunners via base hit or base-on-balls. His four-seamer tops out in the mid-90s, but he's more effective as a pitcher than Lindstrom thanks to an unorthodox delivery that makes it tough to see.

Yusmeiro Petit

Table: Yusmeiro Petit - Career Stats

Year	Team	Level	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K
2003	Kingsport	Rookie	3	3	2.32	12	62.0	47	16	2	8	65
2003	Brooklyn	SS A	1	0	2.19	2	12.1	5	3	0	2	20
2004	Capital City	Low A	9	2	2.39	15	83.0	47	22	8	22	122
2004	St. Lucie	High A	2	3	1.22	9	41.1	27	6	0	14	62
2004	Binghamton	AA	1	1	4.50	2	12.0	10	6	0	5	16
2005	Binghamton	AA	9	3	2.91	21	117.2	90	38	15	18	130
2005	Norfolk	AAA	0	3	10.43	3	14.2	24	15	5	6	14
2006	Albuquerque	AAA	4	6	4.28	17	96.2	101	46	14	20	68
2006	Florida	NL	1	1	9.57	1	26.1	46	28	7	9	20

With Arizona, Petit will have a better opportunity to stand out in an organization that is not as abundant in young, pitching talent as Florida. After 2005, Petit was among the top 10-to-15 most highly regarded pitching prospects in baseball after a brilliant season at Binghamton in which he exhibited flawless command and won nine games with a 2.91 earned average. The right-hander took a few steps back in his development during the 2006 season after being acquired by Florida from the Mets organization in the Carlos Delgado trade. His strikeout rate plummeted after he made the full-time jump to Triple-A, and his earned run average took a hit as he surrendered 21 gopher balls in 123 professional innings. The Venezuelan native struggled mightily in the majors as he posted the highest earned run average in the major leagues among 460 different hurlers who recorded at least 21 innings of work.

Petit had a difficult time adjusting to more advanced competition in 2006 because hitters weren't fooled by his average array of pitches. None of Petit's four offerings are outstanding, his fastball tops out in the high 80s to low 90s. Therefore, Petit is forced to be exceptional with his pitch location and had to further master the art of changing speeds to enjoy the success he had in 2005. Since Petit still has options, Arizona is planning on sending Petit to Triple-A Tucson with hopes that he fine tunes his craft in his second go-around through the Pacific Coast League. Considering how brilliant Petit was with his command from Double-A level down, improvement should be expected this season, but his chances for stardom are quite slim. Petit most likely will be a fourth or fifth starter at the major league level if he sticks down the line.

Fantasy Outlook

Due to his weak bullpen competition, some managers may insert Julio in their top 20 and take him over some risky veterans such as Texas Rangers closer Eric Gagne, San Francisco Giants closer Armando Benitez of San Francisco and St. Louis Cardinals closer Jason Isringhausen. Julio's reserve options and Petit are only worth consideration in extremely deep National League formats.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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