Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

March 27, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

When Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim second baseman Howie Kendrick was called up to the majors for the first time last April, he was already being labeled as a future big league batting champion. Lofty expectations they were, but not unreasonable given that the second baseman posted an astonishing .361 batting average in five seasons of professional baseball, all in the minors.

Background

Kendrick left quite an impression at every minor league stop along the way to The Show. The right-handed hitter batted .367 at Class A Cedar Rapids in 2004, .384 at high Class A Rancho Cucamonga in 2005, .342 with Double-A Arkansas in 2005 and terrorized Pacific Coast League hurlers to the tune of .369 at his final stop at Triple-A Salt Lake in 2006. The track record was so flawless that it was easy to expect Kendrick to step right in with the Angels and repeat his Rod Carew-like batting averages. Kendrick was humbled though as he batted .285 with four home runs in his initial 267 at-bats at the major league level, as he experienced his first true adjustment period in professional baseball. With incumbent Adam Kennedy out of the picture, though, Kendrick, in his sophomore season, is expected to play every day as the Angels' starting second baseman.

Table: Howie Kendrick Career Statistics (2002-2006)

Year	Level	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
2002	Rookie	157	50	6	0	13	24	7	11	12	.318	.368	.408
2003	Rookie	234	86	20	3	36	65	24	28	8	.368	.434	.517
2004	Rookie	12	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	.250	.308	.333
2004	A	313	115	24	10	49	66	12	41	15	.367	.398	.578
2005	High A	279	107	23	12	47	69	14	42	13	.384	.421	.638
2005	AA	190	65	20	7	42	35	6	20	12	.342	.382	.579
2006	AAA	290	107	25	13	62	57	12	48	11	.369	.408	.631
2006	MLB	267	76	21	4	30	25	9	44	6	.285	.314	.416

Kendrick's hitting success can be attributed to the exceptional bat speed generated by his consistent, compact swing. The 5-foot-10, 200-pound Kendrick has a knack for driving the ball to all parts of the field, from foul line to foul line. His low walk rates are not much of an issue since he makes contact almost 90 percent of the time.

Kendrick is far from a one-trick pony, though. He possesses some thunder in his bat as evidenced by his career .570 slugging percentage in the minors. Kendrick has the talent that could lead him to eventually develop into a 20-home run hitter at the major league level. In addition to some pop, the 23-year-old can provide double-digit figures in stolen bases.

Looking Deeper

While it's easy to anoint Kendrick as a perennial All-Star at a relatively fantasy-weak position, his 2006 performance in Anaheim indicates that he has a little ways to go to reach that level of success. Outside of the half-dozen stolen bases, Kendrick's statistical line with the Angels was fairly pedestrian for a second baseman. On the flip side, Kendrick is a rare breed of hitter and shouldn't struggle for too long. The native of Callahan, Fla., is likely to display growth this season, but the question is: How much?

Kendrick's batting average with the Angels in 2006 is a little misleading since he went 3-for-26 at the plate during his first cup of coffee, in April and May, in an unfamiliar role as a bench player. Kendrick got promoted again in July and, in a situation where he was playing every day, he batted .303 the rest of the way.

Expectations

Batting average is always difficult to project, but Kendrick could bat in the .295-.310 range this season, taking his experience and previous performance into consideration. Even though this is a possible scenario, all fantasy players should keep in mind that he is capable of outperforming this somewhat modest projection and planting himself amongst the American League's top 10 in batting. Remember that he could also disappoint, given his lack of experience. With is ability to swipe bases, though, he could rack up 15-20 thefts this season.

Kendrick is projected to bat sixth or seventh in the Angels' lineup. This is not an ideal location to produce statistics. Unless Kendrick gets bumped up in the order, 65-75 runs scored is a reasonable expectation. In the power department, Kendrick most likely will push double digits in round-trippers, and his figure will likely sit in the mid-teens at best. Those power numbers could translate to a 60-70-RBI season.

The last major question surrounding Kendrick is his long-term security at second base. Scouts have knocked his defensive play, but the Angels consider it a non-issue. Manager Mike Scioscia has characterized Kendrick as one of the most dedicated players he has ever managed. While Kendrick spent 39 games at first base last season, the extensive playing time had more to do with the Angels' lack of a capable bat at the position and their reluctance to bench Kennedy. Kendrick should be at second base for the foreseeable future, and keeper league players need not worry about a long-term move that will hurt his value.

Fantasy Outlook

In MLB universe formats, the draft position for Kendrick ranges from as high as the seventh round to as low as the 15th round. In order for Kendrick to justify the high end, he may need to hit .320 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Kendrick is certainly capable of doing so, but the likelihood is that he's going to fall a little short of those marks in batting average and home runs. Taking the downside of his numbers last year and the risk factor, Kendrick is a good value in the 11th or 12th round, where he goes on average.

Second base is indeed a thin position, but there are other youngsters, such as the Cleveland Indians' Josh Barfield and the Texas Rangers' Ian Kinsler, with 15-home run, 15-stolen base ability that could be had two to three rounds later. Kendrick is worth the risk in keeper leagues based on his potential over the long term, especially because he plays a prime position. In American League-Only formats, Kendrick is a quality selection in the sixth- or seventh-round range. Any which way you look at it, you may have to reach for him to get him.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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