Adam Loewen, SP, Baltimore Orioles

March 23, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Buck Davidson
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

The Baltimore Orioles' pitching rotation is in a state of flux. The loss of starter Kris Benson (shoulder), who resorted to rotator cuff surgery and is likely out for 2007 season, plus the signings of starters Jaret Wright and Steve Trachsel, have shuffled the rotation. These events may have also created opportunities for at least two young starting pitchers to make their mark in 2007. The best-known of this pair is the talented but wildly inconsistent (emphasis on "wildly") starter Daniel Cabrera, whose upside is well-documented in fantasy baseball circles everywhere.

It's the second of these up-and-coming hurlers, second-year lefty Adam Loewen, who is the main topic of discussion here. Loewen made a meteoric rise through the Orioles farm system, culminating in a fairly successful 112 1/3 inning stint with the big league club in 2006. Though he's still a diamond in the rough, Loewen's potential as a strikeout pitcher has many fantasy baseball sleeper seekers drooling on their cheat sheets as the 2007 campaign approaches. But the question remains: Is Loewen a legitimate fantasy force or just a flash in the fantasy pan? Good question. Grab your cheat sheet (a clean one please) and take a look at this potential fantasy gem.

Upside

Loewen rose like a veritable phoenix from the ashes of the Baltimore farm system last season, tossing only 49 2/3 innings at Double-A Bowie before earning a call to The Show. In those 49-plus innings, the 6-foot-5, 235-pound lefty carved up minor league hitters to the tune of a 2.72 ERA while recording 55 strikeouts. High K rates are nothing new to Loewen, as he racked up 146 punch-outs in 142 innings back in 2005 at high Class A Frederick.

His first stint with the Orioles was a bit of a disaster, though. In 30 1/3 innings after his first call-up, Loewen allowed 24 earned runs. After multiple opportunities to redeem himself, Baltimore finally sent him back down. The demotion to Triple-A Ottawa, though, was short-lived. After three starts, in which he went 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA and 21 strikeouts, the Orioles decided that he got the message. They brought him back up following the All-Star break.

He carried that wicked K-ball back with him to the majors, striking out a total of 98 batters in his 112 1/3 innings for Baltimore last year. Loewen's final 6-6 record was solid enough, especially considering that his O's finished the year with a dismal 70-92 mark. Though his 5.37 ERA and 1.54 look problematic on the surface, it's important to remember that Loewen posted a more respectable 4.72 ERA and 1.43 WHIP after the All-Star break.

As the 2007 season approaches, Loewen is making a strong case to become a fixture in the Baltimore rotation. The soon-to-be 23-year-old has posted a nifty 1.38 ERA through his first four spring training starts, which include a hefty 18 strikeouts in his 13 innings of work. It's easy to see Loewen stepping into the middle of the Baltimore rotation and like his potential in that role.

Downside

While Loewen may indeed have a bright future, it's his past that is rather troubling. Before his dominant stints in the minors last year, Loewen had pitched exactly zero innings above Class A ball. His numbers during his four stops in the low minors don't exactly foretell greatness. He had a 2.70 ERA at low Class A Aberdeen in 2003. In 2004 he posted a 4.11 ERA at Class A Delmarva and a 6.75 ERA at Frederick. He spent all of 2005 at Frederick, recording a 4.12 ERA.

Wildness has always been a problem for Loewen, and his 191 free passes in 329 2/3 minor league innings tell that tale loud and clear. His command didn't improve once he made it to the bigs, as Loewen issued 62 walks in 112 1/3 IP. Though he undeniably possesses a wicked strikeout arsenal, it's tough to imagine Loewen posting great ERA or WHIP totals in the majors until he gains command of his electric stuff.

Run support may be a problem for Loewen as well. The Orioles were one of baseball's worst offensive teams in 2006, ranking 10th in the AL with 768 runs scored, and haven't markedly improved their lot over the offseason. Wins figure to again be few and far between for the O's - and their pitchers - in 2007.

The Bottom Line

From a fantasy standpoint, Loewen could be an absolute bargain on draft day, as he's not even being drafted in most mixed leagues. He is an enormously talented prospect who's flying under a lot of fantasy radars. Wildness figures to be a problem for the promising southpaw in 2007, but no mentor may be more able to help a young fireballer find his command than O's pitching coach Leo Mazzone.

Consider Loewen a late-round flier worth taking in 12-team or larger fantasy leagues, and a player to put on your watch list in smaller leagues. The Baltimore lefty's proven strikeout pitch makes him especially valuable in rotisserie leagues with low maximum-innings limits, and he's a must-have in full-retention keeper league formats.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Buck Davidson

Buck Davidson is a lifelong (the team's, not his) Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan who has been involved in fantasy sports since 1992....and been watching sports since his eyes first focused. He's far too skinny and slow to have ever played the game on a serious level, but enjoyed a notable and prosperous sandlot QB career until, at last, advancing years and condominium construction brought an end to both his NFL aspirations and the Florida sandlots. He has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Brian Roberts seeing the light at the end of the rehab tunnel (05/24)
Fantasy baseball players in the news (05/24)
Fantasy football players in the news (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Dee Gordon's problems at bat (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Will Smith, Yordano Ventura, Wil Myers, more (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: How trade talks develop (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Tyler Clippard, J.J. Putz (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Mark Teixeira's ill beginnings (05/23)
Fantasy NASCAR race preview: Coca-Cola 600 (05/23)