Bobby Abreu, OF, New York Yankees

March 23, 2007 @ 03:28:23

By Steven Kraser
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

As outfielder Bobby Abreu (oblique) got set this spring to begin his first full season as a New York Yankee, he was sidetracked by an injury suffered while taking batting practice during the second week of spring training. Abreu got back into game action March 20 and is not expected to miss Opening Day. However, any setback that occurs before the regular season arrives comes with the potential to affect not only Abreu's 2007 fantasy production but also any contract issues next winter.

The Game Plan

With former Yankee outfielder Gary Sheffield traded away to the Detroit Tigers this offseason, Abreu has the right field spot all to himself. Due to the conditions of his trade to New York from the Philadelphia Phillies last July, Abreu will be auditioning for a new contract for 2008. The Yankees wanted Abreu but didn't want to pick up Abreu's $16 million option in 2008. They were able to acquire him because the Phillies paid a reported $1.5 million to Abreu to waive his no-trade clause.

With the Yankees' payroll philosophy a bit more conservative these days, the team seems content to play the season out and assess the situation with Abreu next offseason. They did the same with starting pitcher Mike Mussina last year and eventually re-signed him. They may also be putting relief pitcher Mariano Rivera in a situation similar to Abreu's next winter. The Yankees can buy out Abreu for $2 million in lieu of exercising the 2008 option.

For 2007, Abreu will once again be part of a formidable Yankees' lineup that will most likely have Abreu in the third spot, sandwiched between shortstop Derek Jeter and third baseman Alex Rodriguez. With outfielder Johnny Damon at the leadoff spot and likely more comfortable in his second season in New York, Abreu should have his fair share of opportunities to bulk up his fantasy production. The Yankees led the majors in runs scored (930) last season, even with Sheffield (wrist) and outfielder Hideki Matsui (wrist) missing for most of the campaign. There's no reason the team cannot match or even surpass that run total in 2007.

Table: Bobby Abreu Statistics (2004-2006) 

Year	Team	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	PHI	574	118	173	30	105	127	116	40	.301	.428	.544	.972
2005	PHI	588	104	168	24	102	117	134	31	.286	.405	.474	.879
2006	PHI/NYY	548	98	163	15	107	124	138	30	.297	.424	.462	.886

Abreu picked up his production after his trade to New York, posting an average of one home run every 30 at-bats (versus one every 42 at-bats with the Phillies), and a .330 BA versus the .277 he hit in Philadelphia.

Looking Toward 2008

A wild-card factor in the Yankees' upcoming decision on Abreu may be the play of Melky Cabrera, who is slated to be the fourth outfielder in 2007. Cabrera came up with a steady season in 2006, batting .280 with seven home runs and 50 RBI in 130 games. His defense also immensely improved from his 2005 rookie campaign. Cabrera was a big reason the Yankees didn't offer a franchise cornerstone, outfielder Bernie Williams, a major league contract this past winter. Teams that talked trade with the Yankees frequently brought up Cabrera's name, but New York held firm. With more of an emphasis on acquiring young arms to bolster its pitching staff, New York may opt to have Cabrera take over in right field in 2008 and again focus on pitching by utilizing money that could have been earmarked for Abreu. Of course, if Abreu comes up big this season, the Yankees could also very easily offer him a contract extension. Cabrera may not have enough pop for the team to live with.

Bottom Line

As with any player going into a contract year, Abreu should have extra motivation to produce at a hefty clip. His spring training injury should not be a factor in his regular season output, as it occurred very early in spring training and he should get enough at-bats before Opening Day. The only concern is that an oblique injury can easily recur. So far Abreu, who has also returned to the outfield in exhibition games, has had no issues during his recovery.

Look for the overall team offensive output to be at Yankees standards with Abreu in the lineup for a full season. Rodriguez and Matsui should also be able to bolster their 2006 numbers with Abreu getting on base frequently. Abreu has the potential for high reward with minimal risk, with 20-25 home runs, 100-110 RBI, 25-30 stolen bases and a .300 BA within reasonable range. When news of Abreu's injury struck, the veteran outfielder was sliding a round or two in fantasy drafts. With Abreu on the mend, he should be returning to his former roost - somewhere late in the second round or early in the third round. Considering his age, however, Abreu's keeper value could dwindle considerably should he leave the Bronx.

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Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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