Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

March 9, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Just when it seems the St. Louis Cardinals are down, they seem to throw something back at you to knock you off your rocker. For 25-year-old starting pitcher Adam Wainwright, things couldn't be better after being thrown into the Cards' rotation and making a killing in spring training.

The 6-foot-7 righty stepped up big in 2006 where he made countless clutch pitching performances out of the bullpen. Closer is a position that has overwhelmed a plethora of quality pitchers in the majors over the years, and when All-Star Jason Isringhausen went down, a lot of question marks were raised. Wainwright not only filled this essential role, but he helped lead St. Louis to their first World Series championship since 1982.

Background

The Cardinals rotation going into the offseason consisted of just starting pitchers Chris Carpenter and Anthony Reyes. General manager Walt Jocketty was hoping to trade for a couple of starters and was able to bring in starting pitcher Kip Wells. Jocketty also re-signed left-hander Mark Mulder (shoulder), but his recovery from a partially torn rotator cuff is expected to keep him out until June or July. Holes still remained. With question marks still surrounding the health of Isringhausen (hip), manager Tony La Russa has still been timid to slip Wainwright into the rotation, but it seemed inevitable. With the huge hole in the rotation the Cards have given him a shot there, and he has not let down thus far, leaving opposing batters hitless in seven innings of work.

In 2006, Wainwright put up some great numbers, compiling 72 strikeouts in 75 innings of work and posting an ERA of 3.12 in his first full big-league season. His WHIP finished at 1.15. Things are suddenly looking bright for the defending champs.

Outlook

The bats Wainwright will have supporting him are nothing to take lightly. Of course the Cards will send out arguably the best player in the game, first baseman Albert Pujols, and they still have third baseman Scott Rolen and outfielder Jim Edmonds. This year outfielder Chris Duncan as an everyday player could be the biggest addition to the Cardinals. He gives them pop, and he could probably mash out 30-plus homers. Role players and good defense should leave the Cardinals in pretty good shape.

Some concerns about Wainwright's move will naturally be that he hasn't pitched at the major league level before in this position. If his 2006 season and early spring training numbers are evidence, then he should be just fine. A concern would definitely be his durability, as pitching 175 plus innings will probably be required of him. That is about 100 innings more than he threw last season, so conditioning will be a key to his transformation. However, Wainwright was a starter throughout his five-plus years in the minors. He made 135 starts in the minor leagues. In 2005 he made 29 starts with Triple-A Memphis and went 10-10 with a 4.40 ERA. He pitched 182 innings that season, before joining the parent club that year and tossing another two innings. With pitching coach Dave Duncan, it's hard to imagine him not making a relatively smooth transition.

Bottom Line

Wainwright is a quality pitcher and his 2007 campaign should reflect it. Playing on a winning team will allot him the opportunity to grab 15 wins, although that total is likely a bit lofty. He is very capable of finishing the season with an ERA in the high 3.00s or low 4.00s with a strikeout rate of 8.0 or so.

Wainwright holds a unique fantasy value because he is entering the season as a starter after never performing at that capacity in the majors. He is being drafted the mid-to-late rounds - 16th round on average - but has fluctuated from as early as the 11th round to as late as the 19th. What makes him so attractive is that he could very well fill in as a quality third starter for you at times. Maybe that will allow you to focus those earlier picks on big bats. If you desire Wainwright, ensuring that you have him may require you to spend a pick on him a round or two earlier than you intended, which makes him a risk.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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