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Z - Impact Analysis

Gary Sheffield, DH, Detroit Tigers

March 5, 2007 @ 16:00:00

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By Adam Barricklow
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

On November 10 the Detroit Tigers acquired former New York Yankees outfielder Gary Sheffield for three pitching prospects, ending peacefully what was starting to look like an ugly scenario. Sheffield was made expendable when the Yankees acquired right fielder Bobby Abreu from the Philadelphia Phillies near last season's trade deadline. Upon Sheffield's return from a wrist injury he was placed at first base, a position he stated this offseason he would not play without a contract extension, which the Yankees stated they were not interested in giving. Sheffield also claimed that he wanted to stay with the Yankees, but that "middle men" were keeping him from discussing the situation with team owner George Stienbrenner.

The trade between the two sides appears to be a win for both teams. The Yankees acquired pitching prospects for a player they viewed as expendable and the Tigers acquired a player that has proven to be a consistent power hitter. The Yankees exercised Sheffield's 2007 option before dealing him to Detroit. After the trade, the Tigers gave Sheffield a $28 million extension that will keep him under contract through 2009.

Sheffield put up solid numbers in his first two years with the Yankees, averaging 35 home runs and 122 RBI per season as well has posting a .290 batting average. His 2006 season was cut short May 29 when he tore ligaments in his left wrist that resulted in him missing nearly four months. He finished the season with a .298 batting average, six home runs and 25 RBI in 39 games. Prior to 2006, Sheffield hit over 30 home runs and had 100 RBI in six of his last seven seasons. Sheffield is not just a power hitter though, demonstrated by his .297 career batting average. It is this ability to hit for average and power that has made him a valuable commodity to major league teams and fantasy teams alike.

Sheffield has stated that he is happy to be reunited with Detroit manager Jim Leyland, who was manager of the Florida Marlins when Sheffield was with the team in 1997, and the Tigers appear to be happy to have him. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said that one of the goals of the team was to acquire a big bat during the offseason. With such bats in short supply, the Tigers were forced to part ways with three pitching prospects: relief pitchers Kevin Whelan and Anthony Claggett as well as highly regarded pitcher Humberto Sanchez. Despite the high price, both sides appear to be happy with the deal. According to Leyland, Sheffield will mostly likely be used in the designated hitter slot, but there is also the possibility that Sheffield could see time in one of the corner outfield spots as well. The current projected lineup has Sheffield batting third, but Leyland has said that he could also bat fourth or even fifth. Regardless of where Sheffield finds himself in the lineup, unless there is a large drop-off in production from the other Tigers, he should have plenty of chances to produce numbers for fantasy owners.

Table: Detroit Tigers Projected Lineup and 2006 Statistics

Player
BA
OBP
HR
RBI
OF Curtis Granderson
.260
.335
19
68
2B Placido Polanco
.295
.329
4
52
DH Gary Sheffield
.298
.355
6
25
OF Magglio Ordonez
.298
.350
24
104
SS Carlos Guillen
.320
.400
19
85
C Ivan Rodriguez
.300
.332
13
69
OF Craig Monroe
.255
.301
28
92
1B Sean Casey
.272
.336
8
59
3B Brandon Inge
.253
.313
27
83

There are some things that fantasy owners should be concerned about with Sheffield. He is 37, and while his numbers are nothing to run away from they have shown signs of decline. After five straight seasons of batting at least .300, in 1999-2003, he has failed to reach that number since. His OBP has fallen each season as well. From 1995-2003, Sheffield's posted an OBP of .400 or better in eight of nine seasons. Numbers to be equally concerned about are his home run totals, which have fallen each season since 2003.

The decline in his stats certainly does not warrant the avoidance of Sheffield by fantasy owners. However, it does highlight that he is no longer in his prime; expecting him to produce his usual power and average numbers is probably unreasonable. It is difficult to pinpoint the year a player's production will see a significant drop-off, but Sheffield's increasing age and noticeable drop in his numbers suggest that year is coming soon. While he is not a player fantasy owners should avoid, they should certainly have a backup plan in place. In recent seasons, Sheffield would often go in the third, fourth or even fifth rounds, and in the latter cases he would seem to be good value. Now Sheffield goes on average in the fifth round, because owners recognize the risk involved. He goes as late as the seventh round, so he could also end up a bargain.



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Author Bio

Adam Barricklow

Adam Barricklow is based out of Central Ohio and has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003. Adam has been playing Fantasy Football since 1996 and has been addicted since day one. Adam plays in various leagues, running one of them and uses his experience and knowledge to create reports that are able to help the fantasy player look at every perspective.

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