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Z - Impact Analysis

Brandon McCarthy, SP, Texas Rangers

February 16, 2007 @ 16:00:00

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By Mike Barner
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

To say the Texas Rangers have had some difficulty finding quality arms to fill out their starting rotation would be an understatement. They have tried spending big money on free agent starters such as Chan Ho Park and Kevin Millwood. They have also tried to develop starters from within with the likes of pitchers Chris Young, Joaquin Benoit and R.A. Dickey. No matter which combinations of veterans and youths the Rangers have tried, they have found little success. Over the last seven seasons, the Rangers have finished in the top five in the American League in ERA only once, while finishing last three times. The Rangers hope their most recent acquisition will give their pitching staff a much-needed boost.

The Rangers acquired starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy and outfielder David Paisano from the Chicago White Sox for pitchers John Danks, Nick Masset and Jacob Rasner. McCarthy, 23, will be given a chance to be a starter over the course of a full season for the first time in his major league career.

The Rangers are hoping that McCarthy can translate his minor league numbers into major league success. McCarthy moved up the White Sox's minor league system in a hurry. After two seasons pitching at the rookie league level, McCarthy's third season in the minor leagues included pitching at the low Class A, high Class A and Double-A levels. The following season, he started 19 of his 20 appearances at the Triple-A level before being called up to the major leagues. In almost four full minor league seasons, McCarthy was 37-21 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. McCarthy was viewed as not only one of the bright young pitching prospects in the White Sox organization, but also in all of baseball.

Table: Brandon McCarthy's minor league statistics (2002-2005)

IP
W
L
SO
BB
CG
SHO
ERA
WHIP
470.2
37
21
536
92
5
2
3.39
1.09

McCarthy first appeared in the majors during the 2005 season. He started in 10 of his 12 appearances, going 3-2 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. McCarthy was used primarily out of the bullpen for the 2006 season because of the depth the White Sox had in their starting rotation. McCarthy came out of the pen in 51 of his 53 appearances for the season, compiling a 4-7 record to go along with a 4.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Going into the offseason, it appeared the White Sox were going to find a spot for McCarthy in the starting rotation. They traded starting pitcher Freddy Garcia to the Philadelphia Phillies, apparently paving the way for McCarthy. However, the White Sox felt the Rangers' package was worth parting ways with what was believed to be a fixture in their starting rotation for years to come.

Pitching at Ameriquest Field should not have much of an effect on McCarthy because U.S. Cellular Field is nearly as hitter-friendly. At 6-foot-7, McCarthy can be very difficult to hit no matter where he pitches.

McCarthy will likely be slotted into the No. 3 spot in the Rangers' starting rotation behind pitchers Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla. Both Millwood and Padilla had solid 2006 seasons, winning a combined 31 games. Behind them, no other starter won more than seven games. While both Millwood and Padilla had good seasons, neither could be considered among baseball's elite starting pitchers. In the American League, two good starters are not enough to take any team very far. McCarthy not only helps lengthen the Rangers' starting rotation, but it also gives the team a young arm that has a chance to be a staff ace for years to come.

McCarthy should have a very good season for the Rangers this year. He could have been a good starter for the White Sox last season if the team had given him a chance. The workload shouldn't be too much for him to handle. Looking back at his 2005 statistics, he pitched a combined 186 1/3 innings in the minor and major leagues. However, it should be noted that pitching over 200 innings in the Texas heat is no easy task. McCarthy could win between 11 and 14 games this season and have a decent ERA in the 4.50-5.00 range. While he shouldn't be counted on to be anyone's ace, he is a solid starter that could help any fantasy team. McCarthy should be available in the later rounds of most fantasy drafts, making him an attractive option with some upside. He has gone on average in the 21st round in mixed league drafts. He holds more value in keeper leagues considering his potential.

It seems like the Rangers have tried anything and everything in recent years to find reliable starting pitchers. By adding McCarthy, it appears they have finally found a starter who can help propel their rotation to the next level.



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Author Bio

Mike Barner
Mike Barner has been a KFFL Hot Off The Wire Analyst and KFFL contributing writer since 2007.

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