Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis, SPs, Chicago Cubs

January 4, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Chicago Cubs fans have long been critical of their franchise's ownership, the Tribune Company, for their stubbornness towards spending money to improve personnel on the team. The Cubs ownership has shed that cheap label for now since they have been the most aggressive and active club in free agency this winter. Coming off a National League-worst 66-96 season, general manager Jim Hendry made headlines by hiring Lou Piniella as the Cubs new manager, a skipper with Hall of Fame type credentials. Hendry did not rest there as he resigned All-Star third baseman Aramis Ramirez for $75 million and landed the most sought after free agent in outfielder Alfonso Soriano, reaching an agreement on a $136 million deal. The Cubs have spent almost $300 million on players this in a winter shopping spree that resembles the New York Yankees approach. Not all critics were pleased as some felt the Cubs went overboard in their aggressiveness. Heads were scratched when the Cubs committed $61 million to free agent pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Lilly is considered at best a third-to-fourth starter and Marquis is coming off a season in which the St. Louis Cardinals completely left him off their postseason roster. 

Ted Lilly

On Dec. 15, the Chicago Cubs reached a deal with Lilly on a four-year, $40 million contract. Lilly, formerly of the Toronto Blue Jays, is coming off a solid 15-win season in which he posted a 4.31 earned run average and fanned 160 batters in 181 2/3 innings pitched. It was a drastic improvement for Lilly after shoulder problems limited him to just 126 1/3 innings pitched and a sub-par 5.56 earned run average in 2005.

Standing at 6-foot-1, 190 pounds, Lilly has quality stuff for a southpaw. He throws an old-fashioned, big looping curveball that he utilizes as his strikeout pitch when he gets ahead of batters. He complements the curveball with an above-average changeup and a fastball that consistently sits in the 86-to-88 mph range, nothing atypical of a left-handed pitcher. Lilly ranked seventh in strikeouts per nine innings in the American League last season, a strong indication his pitch repertoire is more than sufficient to retire big league batters.

Lilly is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which could haunt him at Wrigley Field in 2007. His 1.00 groundball-to-fly ball ratio was the third lowest in the American League. Wrigley Field posted a 1.2 home run park factor last season, a figure that indicates the field can be less than forgiving to flies especially when the infamous winds are blowing out. Lilly's other weakness is his tendency to adopt bad habits in his delivery which have led to mechanical issues and was partially responsible for the shoulder woes that plagued him in 2005.

With a potent lineup backing him that includes first baseman Derrek Lee, Soriano and Ramirez, Lilly is licking his chops knowing he will have the run support to notch win totals in the low-to-mid teens. Lilly is an underappreciated pitcher who quietly gets his share of punchouts, but his earned run average is likely to take a negative hit with likelihood of more long balls landing in the bleachers and the neighborhood streets at Wrigley.

Jason Marquis

Just days after picking up Lilly, the Cubs reached an agreement with Jason Marquis on a three-year contract worth $21 million. The signing was one of the most controversial of the winter after Marquis' nightmarish 2006 season in which he led the National League in games lost (16), runs allowed (136) and home runs surrendered (35). Marquis single-handedly ruined fantasy squads last season with his horrid marks in both earned run average (6.02) and WHIP (1.52). The only saving grace was Marquis miraculously won 14 games last season thanks to the Cardinals' famed lumberjacks. 

Marquis is also known to be very stubborn. He clashed with former Atlanta Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone about his makeup. Mazzone tried to teach Marquis to worry more about pitch location rather than velocity. Many times, he would try to blow batters away. Marquis was traded to the Cards before the 2004 season and was hitting 95 mph on the radar gun. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan tried repeatedly to get Marquis to utilize his sinker instead of trying to strike batters out. He threw some masterful games when he followed that game plan. However, he clashed with Duncan over the same issue for much of 2006.

Critics felt the signing was unnecessary because the Cubs already have younger options in Rich Hill, Sean Marshall and Angel Guzman who couldn't do any worse than Marquis performed last season and are inexpensive. In the Cubs' defense, Marquis was a successful starter before the 2006 season and last year's rotten egg was most likely an anomaly than a true reflection of his current standing as pitcher.  In 2004, Marquis won 15 games with a 3.71 earned run average in helping the Cardinals win the National League pennant, and he won 13 games with a 4.13 earned run average the year after. In fact, Marquis' 42 wins over the last three seasons is a higher total than both San Francisco Giants starter Barry Zito and Los Angeles Dodgers starter Jason Schmidt compiled during the same timeframe. Both starters were the two most highly sought-after free agent pitchers of the winter. 

Marquis has never lacked talent, either. The 6-foot-1, 210-pound right-hander relies on a moving low-90s fastball that he both sinks and cuts to create outs. He also throws a curveball and changeup, but the location and movement of his fastball is the key to his success. Marquis signed with the Cubs because he hit it off with pitching coach Larry Rothschild in conversations before signing. 

Marquis has the talent to post double-digit wins and a sub-4.50 earned run average, but MLB universe players should take a wait-and-see approach for now. 

Outlook

Lilly was quietly one of baseball's best southpaws last year, he should get the run support to rack up wins and he has always been undervalued by the fantasy community. He's a great selection in the mid-teens of a MLB universe draft. Marquis is a sleeper to watch, especially in National League-only, but he should not be drafted in MLB universe drafts. 

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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