Jason Schmidt, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

January 4, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Over the past couple of weeks, some Jason Schmidt jerseys and memorabilia have most likely found their way to the bottom of Bay Area landfills. That's because San Francisco Giants fans feel betrayed after their former ace starting pitcher headed south to sign a three-year, $47 million contract with the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. The deal reunites Schmidt with Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti, who served as the Giants assistant general manager and vice president from 1994 to 2004. The addition of Schmidt bolsters a deep Dodgers staff that already includes Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, newly acquired southpaw Randy Wolf and promising youngsters Chad Billingsley and Hong-Chih Kuo.

Table: Jason Schmidt, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Year	Team	W	L	ERA	WHIP	IP	K	H	BB	ER	HR	BAA
1995	ATL	2	2	5.76	1.80	25.0	19	27	18	16	2	.287
1996	ATL	3	4	6.75	1.72	58.2	48	69	32	44	8	.296
1996	PIT	2	2	4.06	1.59	37.2	26	39	21	17	2	.271
1997	PIT	10	9	4.60	1.43	187.2	136	193	76	96	16	.265
1998	PIT	11	14	4.07	1.40	214.1	158	228	71	97	24	.275
1999	PIT	13	11	4.19	1.43	212.2	148	219	85	99	24	.262
2000	PIT	2	5	5.40	1.77	63.1	51	71	41	38	6	.284
2001	PIT	6	6	4.61	1.30	84.0	77	81	28	43	11	.256
2001	SF	7	1	3.39	1.36	66.1	65	57	33	25	2	.230
2002	SF	13	8	3.25	1.19	185.1	196	148	73	71	15	.218
2003	SF	17	5	2.34	0.95	207.2	208	152	46	54	14	.200
2004	SF	18	7	3.20	1.08	225.0	251	165	77	80	18	.202
2005	SF	12	7	4.40	1.42	172.0	165	160	85	84	16	.246
2006	SF	11	9	3.59	1.26	213.1	180	189	80	85	21	.238

Positives

After suffering through an injury-plagued 2005 season, Schmidt bounced back in 2006 and demonstrated he is still one of the National League's top 10 starting pitchers. Schmidt's 3.59 earned run average placed him eighth among National League qualifiers and he also finished eighth in the Senior Circuit with 180 strikeouts, just four shy of Chris Carpenter. When batters did get a piece of Schmidt's offerings, they had a difficult time getting good lumber on the ball. Schmidt surrendered the fifth lowest opponents' batting average (.238) and the seventh lowest opponents' slugging percentage (.379) among National League hurlers. This was encouraging news because there were a number of critics who wrote off Schmidt after his fastball lost velocity due to shoulder problems in 2005. Even though Schmidt has lost several miles per hour off his fastball, he still throws one of the finest changeups in the game, and scouts feel he has become a craftier pitcher as a result. Changeup artists such as New York Mets starter Pedro Martinez have proven time after time they can still pitch effectively as they age and their velocity wanes.  

Regardless of the velocity issues, Schmidt still has the pitch arsenal and the savvy to remain as one of baseball's top 15 to 20 pitchers in 2007. Being the victim of 12 no-decisions in 2006, Schmidt is due for better luck and an increase to the mid-teens in win totals as well. 

Negatives

Schmidt was arguably baseball's finest pitcher for two years in which he finished runner-up in the National League Cy Young voting in 2003 and fourth in 2004. Schmidt more than likely will never return to that level of dominance again due to his age (34) and the decline in velocity of his four-seamer. Two years ago, Schmidt was being drafted in the top three rounds in MLB universe leagues based on those great seasons. Fantasy owners should temper their expectations and not reach for Schmidt in their draft with the expectation that he can return to that level. Schmidt is not an elite pitcher anymore, albeit he is still a very good one.

The change in ballparks is also a minor concern. Ever since its opening in 1962, Dodger Stadium has long been recognized as one of the most extreme pitchers parks in baseball. Over the past few years, Dodger Stadium has gradually leaned more towards the hitters' favor, most likely from the depletion of foul territory from the recent installation of additional field boxes. In 2006, Dodger Stadium had a hitter-friendly, home run park factor of 1.22 (1.00 being indifferent to hitters or pitchers), while AT&T Park in San Francisco had a home run park factor of 0.69. If this trend continues in 2007, Schmidt could surrender more home runs in 2007 since he's a fly-ball pitcher who had the fifth lowest groundball-to-fly ball ratio in the National League last year.  

Last but not least, Schmidt's shoulder weakness in 2005 is another negative factor to consider given his age is 34. Shoulder problems are a red flag because generally they are the most devastating ailments to a pitcher's career. In Schmidt's defense though, he did instill a rigorous workout regimen last offseason in which credited to his healthy turnaround in 2006. 

Outlook

Schmidt was a dominating power pitcher not long ago, but he has begun to reinvent himself as more of a finesse guy who relies more on command. Barring injury, Schmidt will post solid, across-the-board numbers in all relevant categories to starting pitchers. Schmidt is worthy of being selected in the seventh-to-eighth round range of a MLB universe league.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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