Andy Pettitte, SP, New York Yankees

December 30, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Steven Kraser
Edited by Ryan Dodson

The New York Yankees brought back a favorite son on Dec. 21, signing starting pitcher Andy Pettitte to a one-year, $16 million deal with a player option for 2008. While it always seemed a possibility that Pettitte would return to New York after his contract was up with the Houston Astros, it was somewhat of a surprise that Houston did not go all out to retain the left-hander.

If he remains healthy, there is a good chance that Pettitte will stay for two years and retire as a Yankee. After leaving for Houston after the 2003 season, Pettitte left a hole in the Yankees' rotation that has seen several pitchers fail to fill (Javier Vazquez, Jeff Weaver, Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano to name a few). Pettitte's signing is a major boost to a New York starting pitching staff that has failed repeatedly since the Yankees' last world championship in 2000.

THE GAME PLAN

Coming off a three-year contract with Houston, Pettitte instantly becomes the No. 2 starter behind starting pitcher Chien-Ming Wang. The team re-signed starting pitcher Mike Mussina this offseason and is counting on a second lefthander in the rotation, Randy Johnson, back for the entire 2007 season after offseason surgery (back). The No. 5 spot is now up for grabs between Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa, who has a reached an agreement in principle with the Yankees, and Carl Pavano, who has not done much (17 starts since the beginning of the 2005 season) since signing a $40 million deal. With his history of injuries and some mischievous off-field incidents, Pavano is on shaky ground and may seem himself completely off the team in 2007. There have some teams, notably the St. Louis Cardinals, who have inquired about Pavano this offseason. They will have to see him healthy in spring training before any potential deal is struck.

A huge part of the Yankees' decision in 2003 to not heavily go all out and retain Pettitte was concern about his pitching elbow - and Pettitte indeed underwent season-ending surgery (torn flexor tendon) during his first year in Houston (2004). He bounced back nicely since the surgery and overall put in solid work with the Astros.

Table: Andy Pettitte, SP, New York Yankees - Statistics (2004-2006) 

Year	GS	IP	H	WHIP	R	ER	BB	SO	W	L	ERA	BAA
2004	15	83.0	71	1.32	37	36	31	79	6	4	3.90	.296
2005	33	222.1	188	1.37	66	59	41	171	17	9	2.39	.268
2006	35	214.1	238	1.11	114	100	70	178	14	13	4.32	.339

CONCLUSION

In averaging 34 starts and 218 innings pitched during the past two seasons, Pettitte has shown there are no serious threats to his health after his surgery. With his average of 16 wins since 2005, Pettitte performed on par with the Yankees' top starters (Wang, Mussina and Johnson) during that time period. He was hit fairly hard last season (.339 BAA), and now facing a designated hitter again, will need to bear down more against more potent American League lineups. But his past experience in New York should help his adjustment back to the American League go smoothly. His addition to New York gives the team a solid postseason playoff performer (14-9, 4.08 ERA overall) - and something that may go a long way in returning the Yankees for a chance at winning their elusive 27th world championship.

BOTTOM LINE

With a lineup behind him that remains potent, and capable of lighting up the scoreboard almost each game, there is no reason that Pettitte cannot match his recent production averages. Factoring in a possible off-and-on adjustment to the American League early in 2007, look for Pettitte's usual 30 to 35 starts and 13 to 17 wins. With his playoff experience and the ability in the past to succeed with the Yankees, Pettitte carries minimal risk and potential very good award.

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Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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