J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox

December 30, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein was apparently feeling blue at the idea of filling two big holes in the lineup in such a player's market, but probably wasn't upset. The holes at shortstop and right field were filled when "Theo being Theo" spent big bucks to haul in a couple of ex-Los Angeles Dodgers, outfielder J.D. Drew and shortstop Julio Lugo. After paying an enormous posting fee and contract combination to starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox have easily been this offseason's big spenders along with the Chicago Cubs.

Drew's five-year, $70 million deal and Lugo's four-year, $36 million deal, have allowed the Red Sox to feel strong at key positions for the next few years. Both players have experienced success and have played at a high level in the majors.

Drew, 31, opted out of a deal with Los Angeles and is coming off of a 100-RBI season with a Dodgers offense that seemed to hold only one or two consistent, better than average bats. In Boston he will have the pleasure of hitting around outfielder Manny Ramirez and designated hitter David Ortiz, two of the games most lethal sluggers. A red flag occurred on Drew's MRI, and the deal is not official. There are some questions about his shoulder, and that is holding up the deal. The two sides are negotiating how much money will not be guaranteed now, but it shouldn't keep the two sides from agreeing.

Besides the potent lineup Drew joins, he will also benefit largely from the short porch in left at Fenway Park. Away parks probably won't hurt him as well. A move to the American League will surely add some "umph" to his already stocky numbers.

Over his nine-year career, Drew has put up a .286 batting average and an OPS of .904. His better than average defense will almost definitely be a step up from Trot Nixon and the other option, outfielder Wily Mo Pena.

Table: J.D. Drew's Statistics 2001-2006

Team-Yr	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	OPS
StL-01	375	80	27	73	.323	1.027
StL-02	424	61	18	56	.252	.778
StL-03	287	60	15	42	.289	.886
ATL-04	518	118	31	93	.305	1.005
LAD-05	252	48	15	36	.286	.932
LAD-06	494	84	20	100	.283	.891

Lugo, 31, was having an All-Star season with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays until he was dealt to the Dodgers, but figures to rebound. His pre-trade 2006 season was highlighted with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, a .308 batting average and an OPS of .871 in just 73 games. The following 49 games he hit no home runs, swiped six bags and hit .219 coupled with a .545 OPS. The Red Sox hope a return to the American League will reflect a rebound.

Lugo, who prior to 2006 had profiled as a borderline average to decent player offensively and defensively, is now in the upper echelon as far as salary among major league shortstops. In fact, for most of the offseason the Red Sox had been described as having little interest in signing Lugo. The annual failure of Epstein to deal Manny Ramirez and the absence of a better alternative left Boston with little options after the departure of Alex Gonzalez to the Cincinnati Reds. Lugo is seen in many circles an equal to Gonzalez.

These additions have filled up empty spots but are hardly a guarantee to be everyday All-Star additions. These pickups were risky on a few fronts. Already the official signing of Drew has come into question when the Red Sox were reportedly worried about an issue in Drew's medical past. In fact, Drew has played 136 or more games only twice in nine seasons (2004, 2006). The injury risk here should worry many Red Sox fans.

Lugo has different issues. He missed quite a few games after being traded to the Dodgers mid-season, but not to injury. During the stretch, he seemed to see more of the pine due to lack of performance. His track record does not suggest he is bad, just not as advertised early in 2006. His single season high in round-trippers is 15 and saying he has been a decent fielder may be overvaluing his defensive abilities. His patience at the plate also comes into questions when looking at his walk totals and on-base percentage.

Table: Julio Lugo's Statistics 2002-2006

Team-Yr	AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	SB	AVG
Hou-02	322	45	8	35	28	9	.261
Hou,TB-03	498	64	15	55	44	12	.271
TB-04	581	83	7	75	54	21	.275
TB-05	616	89	6	57	61	39	.295
TB,LAD-06	435	69	12	37	39	24	.278

Consistency is often an undervalued attribute among major league fans and the Red Sox are going to need it this year just like any other winning ball club does in a 162-game marathon. While Drew can and has been producing huge in the power department and putting up great on base numbers, injuries are a concern. Lugo just may not be that good.

For the Red Sox, they hope these two players will be the answer for the next few years. Who knows? These deals could end up turning into bargains depending on the free agent market in 2007 or 2008.

For fantasy owners, be very aware of Drew's injuries if you haven't been beaten over the head enough by this point. He is a big risk to take in the first couple rounds, but if he drops to the five-to-seven range, you may want to take a chance. The table is set for a career year statistically. With 500 at-bats, he could hit .310 with 27 to 31 home runs and drive in over 100 again.

Lugo is a solid option as a backup middle infielder because of his flexibility. He has stolen 20-plus bases in the past three seasons and he will probably hit near 10 homers. Don't expect him to hit higher than .275. He does hold value to leagues in which he can play multiple infield positions. He should be eligible at shortstop and second.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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