Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston Red Sox

December 28, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Joshua Ellis
Edited by Ryan Dodson

During this baseball offseason, the Boston Red Sox were not only looking out for their current situation, but they are also planning for the future. The Red Sox came to terms with starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, inking him to a six-year, $52-million contract with performance incentives that could total $8 million more. This is the largest contract ever offered to a Japanese player. The Red Sox will also have to pay Matsuzaka's former team the Seibu Lions, of the Japanese Pacific League, a $51.1 million (6 billion yen) fee to negotiate with their ace. Many people consider this move a peek into the future for the Red Sox because they are trying to establish good relations with the Japanese League, which may lead to receiving more players in later years. This is also evidenced by the Red Sox signing left-handed relief pitcher Hideki Okajima to a two-year deal, who is also playing his first MLB season coming from Japan.

Who is Matsuzaka?

Matsuzaka, 26, was born Sept. 13, 1980 in Tokyo, Japan and named after Japanese baseball player Daisuke Araki. Matsuzaka first became known in 1998 when pitching in a high school tournament where he threw 250 pitches in a 17-inning win and came back in the finals to throw a no-hitter to win the tournament. After graduation from high school, Matsuzaka was the first pick in the 1998 draft by the Seibu Lions of the Japanese Pacific League. 

The 6-foot, 187-pound right-hander then spent the next eight seasons pitching for the Lions where he amassed a 108-60 record and a 2.95 ERA. During his career, Matsuzaka was named Rookie of the Year, and he also won the Pacific League ERA title in 2003.

Table: Matsuzaka's Stats from Japan

Year	W	L	IP	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
1999	16	5	180	151	87	2.6	1.17
2000	14	7	167.2	144	95	3.97	1.35
2001	15	15	240.1	214	117	3.6	1.25
2002	6	2	73.1	78	15	3.68	1.01
2003	16	7	194	215	63	2.83	1.18
2004	10	6	146	127	42	2.9	1.42
2005	14	13	215	226	49	2.3	1.03
2006	17	5	186.1	200	34	2.13	0.92
Total	108	60	1402.2	1355	502	2.95	1.17

In 2004, Matsuzaka participated in the Olympic Games in Greece and was valuable to Japan's bronze medal finish. He also pitched for Japan in the World Baseball Classic in 2006, and he had a very impressive tournament as he went 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 13 innings. He was named the tournament MVP.

Matsuzaka's success in the World Baseball Classic, where he faced very good talent and continued to dominate, may have been the final eye opener for MLB teams to finally ship the talented hurler to America.

With pitchers, it is not so much their raw numbers, but what kind of stuff they have. Matsuzaka's fastball ranges from 90-96 mph with late movement. He also throws a splitter, changeup, slider, curveball and cutter. In the major leagues, it is likely that he will mainly go with his top four or five pitches and seldom use the pitches he is not as confident in. It is also rumored that Matsuzaka is working on a pitch called the "gyroball." The gyroball supposedly moves much like a splitter, but it also moves sharply away from right-handed hitters and into left-handers.

Making the Jump: From Japan to America

Matsuzaka is not alone in his attempt to go from the Japanese League to the MLB. In fact, there have been 30 players born in Japan who have played in Major League Baseball, and that number will continue to rise. In order to project Matsuzaka's success, here are the Japanese and MLB totals for other pitchers who made the jump.

Table: Former SP Kazuhisa Ishii

League	W	L	IP	K	BB	ERA
Japan	85	51	1292	1375	833	3.44
MLB	39	34	564	435	354	4.44

Table: Former SP Hideo Nomo

League	W	L	IP	K	BB	ERA
Japan	155	92	2102.1	2449	1176	3.31
MLB	123	109	1972	1915	904	4.21

Table: Free agent SP Tomo Ohka

League	W	L	IP	K	BB	ERA
Japan	1	2	57.1	36	47	5.67
MLB	48	58	943	538	261	4.04

Table: Texas Rangers RP Akinori Otsuka

League	W	L	IP	K	BB	ERA
Japan	14	23	350.2	474	117	2.39
MLB	11	14	199.2	194	71	2.43

Table: Los Angeles Dodgers RP Takashi Saito

League	W	L	IP	K	BB	ERA
Japan	80	79	1450	1224	417	3.89
MLB	6	2	78.1	107	23	2.07

Table: Retired RP Kazuhiro Sasaki

League	W	L	IP	K	BB	ERA
Japan	43	38	627.2	851	250	2.41
MLB	7	16	223.1	242	77	3.14

Take from these transition stats what you will, but the general trend of the pitchers with the biggest sample sizes from both leagues is that they tend to do slightly worse in the MLB. That being said, many of these players, especially Nomo, who was NL Rookie of the Year, and Saito had very successful first seasons in the MLB.

How Good Can Matsuzaka be: The Bottom Line
Entering the Boston Red Sox rotation, which now stands at six, Matsuzaka should find himself as the No. 3 position behind Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett and in front of former closer Jon Papelbon, Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester. Maybe it would be best for the Red Sox to move Papelbon back to the closer role where he had so much success in last year. Either way you look at it, Matsuzaka will get ample run support in Boston and should have a decent win total. 

Matsuzaka's career stats had him throwing nearly nine strikeouts per nine innings. Looking at the past pitchers who made the jump to America, they had roughly the same success striking out batters as they had in Japan, so expect Matsuzaka to have decent K/9 totals.

Like any first-year pitcher, there will not be much film or knowledge on them. Most teams will have a few clips from Matsuzaka pitching in Japan and the footage from the World Baseball Classic to work off of. Expect Matsuzaka to start out hot at the beginning of the season, but once players get second and third looks at him throughout the season and his tendencies and mannerisms are known, he should become less successful.

There will be a lot of variance on where to draft Matsuzaka this season. Some people will draft him relatively high and buy into the hype, yet others will be skeptical and Matsuzaka may slip into the middle rounds of some fantasy drafts. Matsuzaka should have a good first half of the season and be effective in every 5x5 fantasy stat. The MLB season is 16 games longer than the Japanese season, and there is more travel and stress involved. So there's a chance he could slip up in the second half. However, it usually takes a good year to figure a pitcher out. That's what happened with Ishii, Nomo, etc.

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Joshua Ellis
Joshua has been a KFFL contributor since 2006.

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