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Strategy: Studs Sitting for the Playoffs

December 21, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

For fantasy owners the last few weeks of the NFL season bring equal amounts of pleasure and pain. The pleasure comes from making the playoffs with a chance to win it all. Once the second season starts, everyone is equal and even teams with losing records can run the table.

The pain is created when you lose by a few key points because your stud player was sat down by his coach to minimize injury risk. It happens every year. A few NFL teams have nothing to gain with two games to go and so rest the starters with the rationale that it preserves them for the post-season. The problem there? Week 16 is the championship week for many leagues.

In this report we'll take a look at some of the playoff-bound teams from both conferences and assess the likelihood of players sitting this week. Of note, the race for the playoffs is tighter this year than last. Things like home field advantage and first round Byes are not yet settled in the AFC. The NFC has a logjam at the Wild Card spots, so many teams will be charging hard during the next two weeks. This is good news for fantasy owners, as it ensures that teams will be playing starters, for one more week anyway.

AFC Division Leaders

San Diego Chargers, 12-2, Clinched Division Title: Owners who drafted running back LaDainian Tomlinson should be in contention for the championship trophy. If not, the rest of your team must have been run over by a car. Just as Tomlinson has carried San Diego, so has he done with his fantasy owners. With first-round Byes and home-field advantage yet unsettled in the AFC, there is little risk of San Diego sitting players like Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates - especially when they are looking at a Week 16 trip up to Seattle against a Seahawks team desperate to right the ship after two recent divisional losses.

Assessment: Little risk of stars sitting, barring a first-half blowout. If the team has a sizeable lead, look for L.T. to possibly rest some late in the game.

Indianapolis Colts, 11-3, Clinched Division Title: Last year, the Colts coasted into the playoffs resting players, having just missed out on a perfect season. After getting beaten at home by eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, head coach Tony Dungy may be re-thinking that strategy. For one, the Colts do not own the advantage of record that they did last year. Though they have a Week 16 tilt against divisional rival Houston Texans in what should be a walkover game, they cannot afford to let up. To earn a first-round Bye, Indianapolis needs to win and have the Baltimore Ravens lose. You will be safe starting your stud players here.

Assessment: The Colts can't afford to sit anyone of their marquee players - you're pretty safe here.

Baltimore Ravens, 11-3, Clinched Division Title: The Ravens are in the same boat as the Colts. They have a tough divisional matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers and need a win along with a loss or tie by the Indianapolis Colts. Expect players such as quarterback Steve McNair (hand), running back Jamal Lewis and tight end Todd Heap to see full action.

Assessment: Having to win outright to lock up a first-round Bye, you won't see the Ravens sit anyone, for Week 16 at least.

New England Patriots, 10-4: The division title has yet to be settled, although truth to tell, New England is in the driver's seat, with the New York Jets two games behind. They simply have to win their Week 16 game at the Jacksonville Jaguars to secure the division crown. Expect quarterback Tom Brady and running back Corey Dillon to see significant time, with rookie Laurence Maroney slowed by rib cartilage damage.

Assessment: Little risk of stars sitting, barring a first-half blowout.

AFC Wild Card Teams

Denver Broncos, 8-6: Wide receiver Javon Walker has performed as advertised in Denver. Rookie quarterback Jay Cutler earned his first win last week. Denver needs to win in Week 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals, and that win would virtually lock them into a playoff berth due to having the best conference record amongst the Wild Card teams. Seeing the Bengals have the second-best record at 6-4, a loss this week to Denver would set them back two games from the Broncos for the fifth seed. Start your Broncos players with the confidence they will play the entire game.

Assessment: No risk of stars sitting, barring a first-half blowout, and that would probably mean only Walker or Tatum Bell would be relieved. In fact, with the team thin at receiver, Walker would probably be forced to finish out the game.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-6: At second place in the AFC South, the Jaguars have no definite post-season scenario playing out in Week 16. They just have to win and the scenario will carry over to Week 17. This means they will be playing all out, especially with the New England Patriots coming to town. The good news is that human wrecking ball, running back Maurice Jones-Drew, is expected to play after jamming his knee during last week's game.

Assessment: Almost no risk of stars sitting, and even with a first-half blowout, the team isn't likely to sit anyone until the final minute or two. With running back Fred Taylor (hamstring) still banged up, look for Jones-Drew to get a huge workload while being occasionally spelled by LaBrandon Toefield.

Cincinnati Bengals, 8-6: The comments for Denver could just as well be cut and pasted here. The Bengals need help to secure a playoff berth this week, but it all starts with taking care of business in Denver. Expect to see all your starters in play.

Assessment: No risk of stars sitting, and considering the way Cincy hasn't been able to close out a few games this year, look for them to play all of their starters until the final tick in the second half.

New York Jets, 8-6: As with the Jaguars, those comments apply here. The Jets are tied with all three teams listed above; however, both Denver and Cincinnati have the better conference record. The "Men in Green" must simply focus on winning this week down in Miami. With a 5-5 conference record, the Jets are tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars, so even if the Jets lose this week, as long as the Jags lose, they are not out of the mix. However, if the Buffalo Bills win and the Jets lose, they become tied with the same overall record, but the Bills would have the tie-breaker in the conference record. None of the other 7-7 teams can catch the Jets' conference record, regardless of the outcomes this week.

Assessment: Don't expect the Jets to sit any of their star players this week, regardless of the score.

NFC Division Leaders

Chicago Bears, 12-2, Clinched Division Title, First-Round Bye and Home-Field Advantage Throughout: Co-owners of the best record in the NFL, the Bears have earned the right to rest their starters. There are two reasons they may not want to: Last year they rested starters and the defense came out flat against Carolina in the playoffs, allowing wide receiver Steve Smith to run amok in the secondary. They spent the rest of the playoffs at home watching. The other reason they should play the starters has to do with their recent quality of play. After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took them to overtime last week, there are a lot of questions surrounding this team. The defense, which has been a strength for years, is letting opposing running backs to rack up significant yardage (a deceiving 109 rushing yards per game - this is skewed by playing the Buccaneers, Patriots and leading the Rams by a large margin that forced them to abandon their running game). The quarterback situation, although better in Week 15, has not yet become consistent enough to satisfy fans or coaches. Count on the Bears playing their starters against the Detroit Lions in Week 16, if for no other reason than to fine tune game plans and execution.

Assessment: The only major risk for fantasy owners will be running back Thomas Jones (ribs). It remains to be known if he will start, and even if he does, our sources say to expect a heavy dose of running back Cedric Benson. It is also entirely possible to see very little of star middle linebacker Brian Urlacher as the game progresses.

Dallas Cowboys, 9-5, Clinched Playoff Berth: After quarterback Tony Romo became a viable fantasy starter and injected life into the team, they managed a record good enough to get them into the playoffs. However, the lure of that divisional title beckons, especially when there are divisional opponents in contention for the Wild Card. In Week 16 they entertain the Philadelphia Eagles, a suddenly hot team on the cusp of earning a playoff spot itself. Dallas wins this game and they win the division. Philly wins and they earn a playoff berth. Expect your starters to play lights out; this is for all the marbles at this stage of the season.

Assessment: No risk of stars sitting.

New Orleans Saints, 9-5, Clinched Divisional Title: A feel-good story in 2006, the Saints have surprised many. They can clinch that ever-important first-round Bye with a win and a Dallas Cowboys loss. While they can't control the Dallas outcome, they can do something about their half of the equation. The problem is that they must journey to do battle with the New York Giants, a team struggling to keep its own playoff hopes alive. New Orleans sports a number of fantasy starters, and you can expect them all to play with the exception of wide receiver Joe Horn (groin), who is listed as questionable.

Assessment: Very little risk of sitting, especially considering head coach Sean Payton's view toward taking a day off.

Seattle Seahawks, 8-6: The weakest of the divisional leaders, Seattle must win out to earn the division. However, they will be without wide receiver Darrell Jackson (toe) and face a tough matchup with the super-hot San Diego Chargers in Week 16. While we necessarily can't predict how your studs will fare in this game, we do know they will at least play.

Assessment: This may be the telltale week for what kind of franchise the Seahawks are after dropping back-to-back games to opponents they should have beaten. Considering the Seahawks' run defense is giving up quality yardage to the running back position in the past month (129 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game), look for Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson to tear them apart. This could be a strong day, in terms of mop-up duty, for Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck for fantasy owners. There is no risk of stars sitting while the team fights for their division lead.

NFC Wild Card Teams

Philadelphia Eagles, 8-6: Quarterback Jeff Garcia has become an excellent replacement for Donovan McNabb. His arrival sparked the team and ensured other players like running back Brian Westbrook and wide receiver Donte' Stallworth remained viable fantasy starters. The importance of their upcoming game with Dallas has been stated already above, so play your starters with confidence that they will see significant time.

Assessment: You are far more likely to win the lottery every day for the next month than to see any Eagles be rested this week.

Atlanta Falcons, 7-7: Playing for post-season life, the Falcons must host a divisional rival, the Carolina Panthers, in Week 16. The running game has been hurt by injuries, but running back Warrick Dunn did see 18 carries during Week 15. If you own any Falcons, start them with the knowledge that they'll remain in the game.

Assessment: With head coach Jim Mora likely playing for his coaching life, there is no reason to believe any of the Atlanta fantasy contributors will see the pine this week.

New York Giants, 7-7: It's entirely possible that both Wild Card slots could go to the NFC East. The thing is, no one knows. So teams have to play all out to earn those spots. The upcoming game with New Orleans, as noted above, has post-season implications for both teams. Play your Giants starters knowing they'll stay in the whole game.

Assessment: Much like Atlanta Falcons head coach Jim Mora, Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is arguably playing for this coaching life in the Big Apple. Read as: no one worth owning is sitting this week for the "G-Men."

Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers 6-8: Green Bay has the advantage over the Vikings due to a better divisional record (3-1 versus 2-3). The two teams face each other in Week 16, which will eliminate one from any post-season contention. If the Vikings beat the Packers in Week 16, they become the favorite of the remaining 6-8 teams (St. Louis Rams and Carolina Panthers) due to the better conference record. If the Packers win, they move into the No. 7 seed heading into a Week 17 showdown with a Chicago Bears team that may very well rest some star players. Conceivably, the Pack is not too far away from returning to the post-season, for as strange as it sounds to say! The 49ers would need to win outright to take the division from the Seattle Seahawks, and they would need help in the way of Seattle losing both of their next games.