IDP: Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 16

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - STRONG PLAYS

Andre Carter, Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

The Redskins were able to confuse the Saints offense last week with a combination of different packages and blitzes. With the Saints being one of the top offenses in the league, the Redskins should be able to have even more success against a Rams offense allowing 18 tackles and 2.9 sacks per game to this position over the past four weeks. In that same period, Carter is averaging 7.5 tackles and 0.5 sacks per game. Those numbers put him second from the top of KFFL's rankings for defensive linemen since Week 12. In our Week 16 rankings, however, he is the top defensive lineman and should be played as a No. 1 lineman and a strong play.

Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

The Colts defense must have been sick of hearing how bad they were all last week as they limited the Bengals to only 16 points. Freeney was a huge part of that as he had three tackles, three sacks and three forced fumbles. Over the past four weeks, Freeney is averaging 2.8 tackles, 0.8 sacks and 0.8 forced fumbles per game. The Texans perennially seem to have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and this year's version is no exception. Since Week 12, they are allowing 24 tackles, 2.8 sacks, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions to this position per game. Being left off the AFC Pro Bowl roster should only give Freeney more motivation, and he comes ranked as a No. 1 or 2 defensive lineman and a strong play.

Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Ogunleye and the Bears defense have been somewhat disappointing over the past four weeks, none more than when they allowed the Buccaneers to score 21 fourth-quarter points and force overtime in Week 16. Since Week 12, Ogunleye is averaging 3.8 tackles and 0.8 sacks per game. His numbers should spike this week, however, as he is facing an offense allowing 20 tackles, 3.8 sacks and one fumble recovery per game over the past four weeks. Ogunleye comes ranked as only a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive lineman in Week 16, but he is a strong play.

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - WEAK PLAYS

Trevor Pryce, Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers offensive linemen better be ready as Pryce is most likely going to be fired up after missing out on an AFC Pro Bowl spot. Over the past four weeks, Pryce has averaged 5.5 tackles and 1.4 sacks per game. The Steelers have been on a tear lately, winning three straight since a 27-0 shutout loss to the Ravens in Week 12. Over the past four weeks, they are allowing 20 tackles and 1.1 sacks to this position per game. Pryce comes ranked as a No. 1 defensive lineman this week and is a weak play.

Will Smith, New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

Expect Smith to be fired up not only because his celebrity namesake released a movie that was tops at the box office last weekend, but he was also nominated to his first Pro Bowl. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 3.8 tackles and one sack per game. It will be tough for him to match those four-week averages, however, as the Giants are the worst offense for this position to face. Since Week 12, they are allowing only 16 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game to the position. With averages that low, it makes Smith a weak play this week as a No. 1 or No. 2 defensive lineman.

Derrick Burgess, Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

If the Raiders offense could put the ball in the end zone this team might have had an outside shot at the playoffs. As it is, they are looking at one of the top picks in the draft and most likely, their new franchise quarterback (which still might not make up for passing over Cardinals quarterback Matt Leinart or Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler in last year's draft). Burgess was named to the AFC Pro Bowl roster as a reserve this week. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 4.5 tackles and 0.8 sacks per game. His numbers should dip, however, as this week he faces a Chiefs offense allowing only 16 tackles and 1.1 sacks per game to this position since week 12. Burgess should be used as only a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive lineman against the Chiefs, and he is a weak play.

LINEBACKERS - STRONG PLAYS

Thomas Howard, Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The first-year linebacker out of Texas El-Paso has been solid, but not spectacular, for the Raiders this season. Making his job easier has been strong play from the defensive front four, giving him plenty of opportunities to make plays. Over the past four weeks, Howard is averaging 8.8 tackles per game. The Chiefs have one of the top offensive lines in the league, along with one of the top running backs in Larry Johnson. Howard should come face-to-face many times with Johnson in Week 16. The Chiefs are allowing 34 tackles, 2.4 sacks, 0.5 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions per game since Week 12. Howard comes ranked as a No. 2 or No. 3 linebacker this week and is a strong play.

Gary Brackett, Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

The Colts might have turned a corner last week as they held the Bengals to just 16 points, and Bengals running back Rudi Johnson to only 79 rushing yards on 22 carries. The team is talented but their biggest problem still remains poor tackling. Brackett has been a part of the problem as he is only averaging 7.8 tackles per game since Week 12. The Texans are allowing 32 tackles, 0.8 sacks and 0.8 fumble recoveries per game to the position over the past four weeks. The Colts linebackers should see a spike in their numbers this week, which makes Brackett a strong play as a No. 3 linebacker.

D.J. Williams, Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Broncos linebacker Al Wilson might have gotten the Pro Bowl selection this week; however, it is Williams who has been the top fantasy linebacker for the Broncos over the past four weeks. In that time, Williams is averaging 5.5 tackles per game. He will be put against an offense that is giving up an average of 37 tackles and 0.5 sacks per game to the position since Week 12. Those averages make Williams a strong play this week as a No. 3 linebacker.

LINEBACKERS - WEAK PLAYS

Victor Hobson, New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Hobson ranks in the top five for linebackers over the past four weeks according to KFFL's rankings. In that time, he is averaging 12 tackles and 0.8 sacks per game. The Dolphins offense, however, has not given up a lot of tackles per game to this position. Since Week 12, opposing linebackers are averaging only 24 tackles, 0.4 sacks and 0.3 interceptions against them. This means it will be hard for Hobson to hit his four-week averages, making him a weak play as a No. 1 or No. 2 linebacker.

Karlos Dansby, Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

With little to play for this week, the Cardinals will be hoping to put an end to their division rivals playoff hopes. Way back in Week 1 of this season, the Cardinals came out 34-27 winners over the 49ers. Dansby has been solid for the Cardinals over the past four weeks, averaging 9.5 tackles and 0.5 sacks per game. The 49ers, however, rank as the fourth-worst offense for linebackers to face since Week 12. In that period, they are allowing 21 tackles, 0.3 sacks and 0.3 interceptions to the position per game. Dansby comes ranked as a No. 2 linebacker this week and is a weak play.

DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Ware and the Cowboys can end the Eagles hopes at a division title this week with a win. Last week against the Saints, Ware made an incredible play to haul in an errant throw from Falcons quarterback Michael Vick, which he ran back 41 yards for the touchdown. Over the past four weeks, Ware is averaging 4.8 tackles and 0.4 sacks per game. The Eagles are only allowing 22 tackles, 0.3 sacks and 0.3 fumble recoveries to this position per game since Week 12. Don't expect as much from Ware this week, as he is only an injury replacement at the position and a weak play.

DEFENSIVE BACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Marlon McCree, San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

McCree was not one of the nine Chargers selected to AFC Pro Bowl roster this week. However, McCree does come listed as the top-ranked Chargers defensive back this week. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 3.8 tackles per game. The Seahawks are allowing 26 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 1.5 interceptions to this position over the past four weeks. McCree comes recommended as a No. 1 defensive back this week and is a strong play.

Nick Collins, Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

With the Vikings giving rookie quarterback Tarvaris Jackson the first start of his NFL career, it could be a big day for Packers defensive backs. Jackson might be an unknown commodity, but rookie quarterbacks usually make at least a couple mistakes in their first games. As well, Collins is better at coming up and stopping the run, which the Vikings should be doing more this week. Over the past four weeks, Collins is averaging 6.8 tackles per game. The Vikings have been allowing 31 tackles, 0.5 fumble recoveries and 0.8 interceptions to this position per game over the past four weeks. Collins comes ranked as a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive back and a strong play this week.

Walt Harris, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

With one of the worst offensive lines in the league, Harris could see a lot of passes thrown his way against the Cardinals this week. Over the past four weeks, Harris is averaging six tackles per game. The Cardinals are giving up 26 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and one interception per game to this position over the past four weeks. Harris should at least be able to reach his four-week averages, and most likely will exceed them. That makes him a strong play in Week 16 as a No. 3 or injury replacement at the position.

DEFENSIVE BACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Even though the Bears defense struggled last week, expecting that to happen two weeks in a row, and especially against the Lions, is a bit of a stretch. The Lions offense is lacking in both rushing and passing offense and it appears as though the Lions players are struggling with the complex offense put in place by offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Because of their struggles, they are allowing only 22 tackles, 0.3 sacks, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 1.8 interceptions per game to this position since Week 12. Tillman, who is averaging 7.5 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks, comes ranked as a No. 1 or No. 2 defensive back this week and is a weak play.

Corey Chavous, St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins

Both of these teams have essentially been eliminated from the playoff race and will be playing for draft position in Week 16. Chavous has played well for the Rams in his first season with the team. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 6.8 tackles per game. Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell might be the quarterback of the future for the Redskins, but over the past four weeks he and the Redskins have not performed well. Since Week 12, they are allowing 26 tackles, 0.3 sacks and 0.8 interceptions to this position. Chavous should get fewer opportunities to make plays this week, which is why he is a weak play as a No. 2 defensive back.

Adam Jones, Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

Jones was one of three Titans defensive players to score last week as they accounted for all but three of the Titans points in their 24-17 win over the Jaguars. Jones is finally rewarding head coach Jeff Fisher for sticking with him after his NFL career got off to a rocky start. Over the past four weeks, Jones is averaging 5.8 tackles, 0.4 sacks and 0.8 interceptions per game. The Bills, however, will pose a challenge as they do not throw the ball enough for Jones to make much of an impact. With rain and snow showers predicted for Sunday, Jones comes ranked as only a No. 3 defensive back and a weak play this week.

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Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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