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Strategy: Coaches on the Hot Seat

December 7, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

On the eve of playoff rounds for most fantasy leagues, we're skipping the usual strategy advice to take a look at a different aspect of the NFL. We'll focus on some coaches who may be looking for new jobs when the NFL playoffs conclude. A coach on the edge of his job may not have much impact on the bottom line production of your fantasy team, but it is a change that bears watching, especially for dynasty leagues.

Before diving into our coaching speculation, we'll give passing mention to Arizona Cardinals coach Dennis Green. Aside from providing one of the most entertaining post-game conferences this season, he's already been tagged for a replacement by the organization. He is what we thought he was: fired after the season. No need to spend any more time on him than that.

Coaches Feeling the Heat

The entrants in this category have a number of factors making them prime candidates to get the boot. From contract situations to player morale to playoff expectations, each coach has an uphill battle ahead.

Tom Coughlin, New York Giants - Coughlin's name on this list should come as no surprise. The media have been speculating on his future for much of the season. Of late, the wheels appear to be spinning right off the Giants' wagon. Players are sniping at coaches through the media, at each other through the media and at the media through a crowd of other media. They are currently tied with Philadelphia at 6-6 and have a meeting with the Eagles in Week 15. Other games against the just-as-desperate Carolina Panthers and NFC South leading New Orleans Saints don't paint a rosy outlook. Coughlin is only signed through 2007 and many owners dislike having lame duck coaches. On the other hand, ownership wants coaching stability for the team. At this point, your guess is as good as ours.

Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars - After taking the Jags from 5-11 in his first year to 12-4 with a playoff appearance in 2005, expectations were high for Del Rio. After all, the team had not been to the playoffs since the 1999 season. In February 2006, owner Wayne Weaver awarded Del Rio with a contract extension through the 2007 season, which is a vote of support but not an overwhelming one. Jacksonville is currently in second place in their division, tied at 7-5 with the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets for conference record. If the Jags fall short of making the post-season with a poor showing down the stretch - they still have two divisional matchups against the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans - it could be Del Rio who takes the brunt of it all.

Jim Mora, Atlanta Falcons - Trivia point: Mora is often mistakenly referred to as Jim Mora Jr., since he shares a name with his father. The two have differing middle names, technically ruling out the "Junior" connotation. Now go make a bet with your buddy over that. Mora is making bets of his own, namely that the contract extension he signed in March 2006 will keep him employed through 2009. If the 6-6 Falcons fail to make the playoffs for the second straight year under his watch, things could get ugly. There have been the publicized spats he's had with media in recent years, compounded by his fathers' "coach killer" remarks. Mora has failed to develop NFL superstar quarterback Michael Vick much beyond what he was as a rookie. To make things worse, Atlanta is tied with divisional rival Carolina in the standings and still has a second meeting to go. In the NFC, Philadelphia and New York also hold identical records, while three other teams are just one game behind. Mora could need a winning season and playoff appearance, but it will be a tough row getting there.

Marty Schottenheimer, San Diego Chargers - Schottenheimer's name here may surprise some. After all, he coaches what is arguably the best team in the league, but that could also be his downfall. Anything short of a conference championship will be seen as failure. That, taken in light of Schottenheimer's poor post-season record over his career will have the owner's suite in a tizzy. The extension he signed in January 2005 runs through 2007 essentially makes him a lame duck coach next year. The remaining spat of games don't help Schottenheimer much. First on the docket would be Denver and Kansas City back to back, divisional opponents clinging to wild card hope. They follow up at Seattle, a division-leading playoff contender. The Week 17 tilt against Arizona is the only seemingly easy game, but by then, playoff seedings will likely be set. Schottenheimer's long-running battle with general manager A.J. Smith is not secret, so this could play into the situation as well.

Art Shell, Oakland Raiders - Most would bet when owner Al Davis named Shell as his coach he never thought he'd be responsible for the soap opera that Oakland has become. National media outlets panned Shell's choice of Tom Walsh to the offensive coordinator position. (The bed and breakfast jokes have been done to death, so we'll spare you.) In the draft they passed over the need position of quarterback. The team then commenced to lose, and lose poorly, on the way to a 2-10 record. Only once in those 10 losses has the team been within a field goal of tying. They've been shut out twice. Worse, the locker room is in turmoil. Players have commented on the lack of morale. Shell demoted his offensive coordinator to tight ends coach. The remaining schedule features three playoff contenders and likely a top two draft pick next year. Then there is the owner factor. Never one to sit still, it is not out of character for Davis to dump a coach quickly. Just look at the run of Oakland coaches in this decade alone. For that reason, and the many other ones above, Shell has to be toasting his buns.

Coaches That May Notice the Room Has Become Warmer

The names here are just beyond the focus of national media, yet the factors for dismissal are there. At least one of the following coaches could be off the team's payroll come February.

Romeo Crennel, Cleveland Browns - No doubt Crennel has the credentials: five Super Bowl championship rings, three of them since 2001, will make any owner take notice. However after a 6-10 campaign in his rookie year, the expectations for a winning record this season were high. To date, the Browns have won just four games, although three of those victories were against potential wild card teams. Crennel is not getting satisfactory results from his quarterback Charlie Frye and could be accused of failing to develop him. A few player quotes in the media don't add much to his chances, but general manager Phil Savage has gone on recent record in Crennel's favor. Plus, for most organizations based outside of Oakland, two years is not enough time to adequately judge a coach.

Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans - For the first month of the season, pundits were predicting which team would grab Fisher when Tennessee jettisoned him after the season. Now, with the Titans' riding a three-game winning streak (over playoff contenders no less), enthusiasm is rampant. Funny how perspective can change so quickly, isn't it? At 5-7 and with their remaining schedule, the Titans are little threat to make the post-season. Signs of hope are there, however. Of their losses, four came by less than a touchdown. They have won on the road and they've beaten division opponents, including the upset of Indianapolis in Week 13. However, as one of the youngest teams in the league, they've also suffered from inconsistency and embarrassing losses. With two more divisional games left, the Fisher-led Titans have a decent chance to end the year at .500. Given the state of the team prior to the season, any fan or owner should be happy with that.

Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - In 2002, Tampa Bay received everything they paid for - and more - when their brand spanking new head coach took them to Super Bowl glory. They should have, considering the price they paid to get him. Unfortunately the next three years featured two losing seasons and just one playoff appearance in 2005. This year failed to follow up on last year's 11-5 record. Gruden's placement in this article may be a stretch but no more so than some others. Gruden has an aging defense, questions at the quarterback position and offensive line issues. The slate of draft picks Tampa Bay surrendered to Oakland as part of his contract has hurt the franchise's ability to bring in quality youngsters. Gruden's contract is set to expire after 2007, so this offseason will be telling as far as his future.

Again, as noted in the opener, a coach's situation with his team has minimal impact for you during this year's playoff run. It's only next year, when the music has stopped for the coaching staff shuffle, that different play-calling and offensive philosophies will affect player rankings. For now, we just sit back and watch the drama unfold in certain front offices. It can be better than prime time television.