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IDP: Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 14

December 7, 2006

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - STRONG PLAYS

Chike Okeafor, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks' offensive line could welcome back offensive guard Sean Locklear (ankle) to the starting lineup next week, which should improve their running game. As if they need any more reason to run the ball. Last week, running back Shaun Alexander ran the ball 26 times; the week before he carried the ball 40 times. How does this benefit Okeafor you ask? It should provide him with plenty of opportunities to improve on his four-week average of 3.5 tackles, and he has also averaged 0.9 sacks per game in that time. He will also likely be starting against Locklear, who might not be up-to-speed after missing five starts and just getting into a game last week. The Seahawks are allowing 27 tackles, 1.3 sacks and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks to the position. Okeafor's numbers aren't great and he is only ranked as a No. 3 defensive lineman, but he is a strong play.

Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Haynesworth should be hoping to repay his coaches' faith after his on-field incident (stomping on Dallas Cowboys center Andre Gurode's face) earlier this season, which resulted in a five-game suspension. He has been decent against the run and is averaging 4.33 tackles per game over the past four weeks (three games). This week, he will be up against what has been in most formats the best offense in the league for lineman to face over the past four weeks. The Texans are allowing 24 tackles, 3.3 sacks and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game to the position since Week 10. This offensive line has shown some improvement over the course of this season, but it is still among the league's worst. This should benefit Haynesworth, who is a strong play as a No. 3 or injury replacement this week.

Igor Olshansky, San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler did not get off to a great start last week and Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan could scale back the offense and focus on the running game. Olshansky hasn't put up great numbers over the last four weeks, averaging only 2.5 tackles and 0.3 sacks per game. However, you should expect his numbers, especially the tackle total, to get a boost this week when he faces an offense which is allowing 20 tackles, 1.8 sacks, 0.5 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions per game to this position over the past four weeks. Olshansky is only an injury replacement at the position, but he is a strong play.

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - WEAK PLAYS

Robert Mathis, Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Mathis has been a beast for the Colts, averaging 3.8 tackles, one sack and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks. Their run defense might be struggling but that clearly has not spread to Mathis. The Jaguars' offensive line has performed well over the past four weeks, allowing opposing defensive lineman 17 tackles and 2.1 sacks per game to this position. Although he still comes ranked as a No. 1 or No. 2 defensive lineman, Mathis is considered a weak play.

Shaun Ellis, New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

In the 3-4 defense used by the Jets, the linemen are expected to occupy blockers, leaving linebackers free to make plays. This means it's doubly hard for Ellis to picks up fantasy points, which makes his four-week averages of 6.5 tackles and 0.8 sacks per game even more impressive. In that same period, the Bills are allowing 16 tackles, one sack and 0.3 fumble recoveries to the position per game over the past four weeks. Don't expect him to hit those averages against the Bills this week, meaning he is a weak play, but he should still be considered a No. 1 or No. 2 defensive lineman.

Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants

The Eagles did a good job of shutting down Peppers last week, holding him to just four tackles, and his job won't get any easier against the Giants this week. Peppers is averaging 3.3 tackles, 0.8 sacks and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game over past four weeks. But the Giants are allowing 13 tackles, 0.8 sacks and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game to the position over the past four weeks. Peppers is solid against both the pass and the run so he isn't taken out of many plays. He is being double-teamed a lot, though, and draws most of the attention on this line. It may be hard for Peppers to live up to his value this week, thus he is considered a weak play as a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive lineman.

LINEBACKERS - STRONG PLAYS

Caleb Miller, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Oakland Raiders

The Bengals defense has turned itself around over the past few weeks, which also coincides with the team's recent winning streak. Miller is averaging 10 tackles, 0.3 sacks and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks. In that same time, the Raiders are allowing 31 tackles, 1.4 sacks, 0.5 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions per game to the position. Expect Miller to exceed his four-week averages this week, and he should be used as a No. 1 or No. 2 linebacker who is a strong play.

Larry Foote, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

The Steelers might be having a disappointing season but Foote has performed well for them, especially of late. Over the past four weeks he is averaging 10 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions per game. Against the Browns, who are allowing 32 tackles, 1.6 sacks, 0.5 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions per game, Foote comes recommended as a No. 2 linebacker and is a strong play.

Kirk Morrison, Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

The Raiders defense will likely be spending a lot of time on the field this week as the Raiders offense is one of the most inefficient in the league and Bengals have one of the better offenses in the league. This should keep Morrison, who is averaging 7.8 tackles and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks, on the field with plenty of opportunities to make plays. The Bengals are allowing 37 tackles, 1.3 sacks, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions per game to the position over the past four weeks. Morrison shouldn't find it too hard to hit his averages this week and comes ranked as a No. 2 linebacker who is a strong play.

LINEBACKERS - WEAK PLAYS

A.J. Hawk, Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Hawk has turned into a fantasy stud for the Packers, averaging 16 tackles, 0.4 sacks and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks. He comes ranked as a top-five fantasy linebacker in that time and may be in a battle with Houston Texans linebacker DeMeco Ryans for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The 49ers are allowing 24 tackles and 0.3 sacks per game over the past four weeks. The Packers give up too many plays downfield. As well, with the low numbers the 49ers give up to the position, it will be hard for Hawk to reach his lofty numbers. Hawk should be used as a No. 1 linebacker this week, although he is a weak play.

Tedy Bruschi, New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

The heart of the Patriots defense is averaging 15 tackles and 0.4 sacks per game over the past four weeks. The Dolphins are allowing only 19 tackles and 0.4 sacks per game over the past four weeks to this position. With only four tackles difference between the two, it is unlikely Bruschi will be able to reach his four-week averages. That makes him a weak play this week and he should be seen as a No. 2 linebacker.

Lofa Tatupu, Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Tatupu has not been making too many big plays but he is averaging 11 tackles per game over the last four weeks and has been solid for the Seahawks defense. He has been a sure tackler and that will come in handy this week against a Cardinals offense which is allowing 17 tackles, 0.3 sacks and 0.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks. The Cardinals' main threats are deep targets (see wideouts Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin) so Tatupu is not likely to be in position to make many plays. He should be considered a strong play as a No. 3 linebacker this week.

DEFENSIVE BACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Marquand Manuel, Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

The Packers defense is doing nothing right lately as they were burned by Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander for 201 rushing yards two weeks ago, and gave up 38 points (31 in the first half) to the Jets last week. Manuel has had a disappointing first season in Green Bay and is averaging 7.3 tackles per game in the last four weeks. San Francisco's offense could have a field day against the Packers this week and expect Manuel to get plenty of chances to make plays. The 49ers are allowing 27 tackles, 0.5 fumble recoveries and one interception per game to this position over the past four weeks. Manuel comes ranked as a No. 1 or No. 2 defensive back this week, and he is considered a strong play.

Artrell Hawkins, New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

With free safety Eugene Wilson (hamstring) being placed on Injured Reserve this week, Hawkins will likely be the Patriots' starting free safety for the rest of the season. It marks the second starting safety the Patriots have lost this season, with strong safety Rodney Harrison (shoulder) out indefinitely. However, judging by how they have dealt with injuries in the past, don't expect Hawkins to perform poorly in his new role with the team. Over the past four weeks, Hawkins is averaging 5.5 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game. The Dolphins are allowing 32 tackles, 0.5 fumble recoveries and one interception to this position per game over the past four weeks. With running back Ronnie Brown (hand) out, the team should be passing the ball more and this increases Hawkins' value. Expect him to improve on his four-week averages. He is recommended as a No. 2 defensive back and is a strong play.

Danieal Manning, Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams

It seems like someone on the Bears defense is always stepping up and scoring a touchdown, forcing a fumble or making a big play each week. Last week they overcame a horrible start from quarterback Rex Grossman while the defense and special teams scored 16 points. Manning could be the one to step up this week. He is averaging 5.3 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks. With the Rams giving up 25 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.8 interceptions per game to this position over the past four weeks, Manning should be considered a strong play as a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive back.

DEFENSIVE BACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Bailey is arguably the top defensive back in the league, shutting down his half of the field each week. With the Chargers possessing no true No. 1 wide receiver, it is unlikely he will see a lot of plays his way this week. Bailey is averaging 6.5 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks. The Chargers should rely heavily on running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates this week, meaning Bailey's value should take a hit. The Chargers are allowing only 26 tackles, 0.3 sacks and 0.8 interceptions per game to this position over the past four weeks. Bailey is still ranked as a No. 1 or No. 2 defensive back; however, he is a weak play this week.

Nick Harper, Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

With the Colts possessing one of the weaker run defenses in the league, it is expected the Jaguars won't rely too much on their passing game this week. The Jaguars also don't possess a strong passing game, with no true No. 1 wide receiver. This means Harper, who is averaging 6.8 tackles and 0.5 interceptions per game over the past four weeks, should find it tough to hit his four-week averages. The Jaguars are allowing 27 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.5 interceptions per game to the position over the past four weeks. All of this means Harper comes ranked as a weak play and is a No. 2 defensive back this week.

Bryant McFadden, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

The Steelers' starting cornerback has averaged 6.8 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks. The Browns are allowing 21 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 0.5 fumble recoveries and one interception per game to this position over the past four weeks. Those aren't great tackle numbers, so without a turnover, McFadden's output could be low. McFadden comes recommended as only a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive back this week, and consider him a weak play.







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Bryce McRae

Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

 

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