Frank Thomas, DH, Toronto Blue Jays

December 4, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Scott Ehrlich
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Background

The Big Hurt may hurt no more. The year was 1999. One year after then Chicago White Sox designated hitter Frank Thomas hit .265, his first year below .300 in his to that point in his career, he wound up hitting .305, then the second lowest average of his career, and just 15 home runs. Worse, he played in just 135 games, and slugged what was a career-low .471. His big body seemed to have finally worn out at age 31. The seven-year, $64 million contract he had signed in that offseason would go down as one of baseball's biggest financial blunders.

Of course, it didn't quite turn out that way. Thomas rebounded the next season with a career high 43 home runs and 143 RBI. Was the Big Hurt back? Well, in 2001, the "hurt" part certainly was. He played in just 20 games because of a torn right triceps, with four home runs and a .221 batting average. Thomas rebounded slightly the next season, hitting .252 with 28 home runs, but clearly was no longer the dominant force he had been. The White Sox thought so little of the future that they invoked a "diminished skills" clause in his contract that would allow them to defer a large portion of the then 34-year-old Thomas's salary. A distraught Thomas chose to file for free agency.

Yet, as he had once before, Thomas rose like a phoenix from the ashes. He surprisingly stayed with the White Sox on a contract with year-to-year options, and rebounded with a .267-42-105 season. Much like his comeback before, this one fizzled out shortly thereafter, as Thomas combined for just 30 home runs and 75 RBI in 108 games over the next two seasons. In fact, in 2005, the face of the White Sox for so many years battled injuries all season and languished on the bench while the Sox took their first world championship in nearly a century. When the White Sox traded for first baseman Jim Thome shortly afterwards, it was clear that the injury-riddled Thomas' time in Chicago had come to an end.

However, he was not done yet. It seems that every time he has been written off, Thomas has managed to rebound. He signed an incentive-laden contract with the bargain-hungry Oakland Athletics before the 2006 season and eventually became their most feared hitter. Thomas hit .270-39-114 in a terrible offensive ballpark. It seemed assured that Thomas would stay in Oakland, with the team that had picked him up off the scrapheap and gave him a fourth chance to prove he wasn't washed up.

New Surroundings

That was before the Blue Jays swooped in and offered a two-year, $18.12 million contract with a $10 million vesting option for 2009. Thomas is penciled in as their every-day DH in a much better hitters' ballpark. He'll likely have guys such as third baseman Troy Glaus, outfielder Vernon Wells, first baseman Lyle Overbay and outfielder Alex Rios surrounding him in the lineup, which is a much better collection than he had during his renaissance in Oakland. Thomas has always feasted on American League East teams as well, posting an on-base-plus-slugging percentage of over 1.000 against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles, while posting a very good .907 OPS against the New York Yankees. In 250 career at-bats in Toronto, he has posted numbers of .288-12-47. All the ingredients seem right for a big year for the Big Hurt.

Except, that is, for the pivotal two. First is Thomas' age. He'll turn 39 May 27 and has never been known as the model for conditioning. He has had quite a few injury problems over the last few years, with the 137 games he played in last season more than he played over the previous two combined. Second is Thomas' motivation. With fewer doubters and more financial security than he has really had in about five years, it's questionable as to whether Thomas will be able to keep the edge that has made him such a great player. After all, he has followed his last two big comeback seasons with two bad years.

Fantasy Outlook

Based on his career path, expect this trend to continue. There is still some juice left in his bat, but playing 135-plus games in 2007 and 2008 seems too much to expect from Thomas at this point. While he is in a good situation with a good cast, it's hard to believe that he has enough left to simply mash if he feels like it. Thomas' career in Toronto could be closer to his 2002 and 2004 seasons of .252-28-92 and .271-18-49 respectively, depending on how healthy he remains. Those aren't bad numbers, but drafting him and expecting a continuation of his success from Oakland may be nothing more than a "Big Hurt" to your fantasy squad. However, he has the supporting cast to help him provide solid power numbers if he can stay on the field, making him an intriguing pick if he falls far enough.

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Scott Ehrlich

Scott Ehrlich has been involved with sports for the last four years. He spent parts of three seasons working with various minor league baseball teams and internet sports sites. In 2004 he hosted his own sports talk show on 790AM in South Florida, featuring guests from all four major sports. Scott currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, FL but will be attending law school at the University of Florida in August, where he hopes to one day be the guy responsible for holding your favorite player out of training camp.

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