Moises Alou, OF, New York Mets

December 2, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Anthony Agolia
Edited by Ryan Dodson

The Story

On Nov. 20, 2006, the New York Mets inked free-agent left fielder Moises Alou to a one-year, $7.5 million contract, with a $7.5 million team option for 2008. The signing marks the end of veteran left fielder Cliff Floyd's tenure with the Mets and could also signal the departure of once-prized prospect Lastings Milledge, whose statistically and temperamentally challenged 2006 debut has rendered him an expendable commodity. In Alou, the Mets have acquired one of the most unheralded stars of his generation at a nominal price, as well as a polished right-handed bat to plug into an extremely left-handed lineup. 

However, Alou turns 41 in July, and is coming off of a 2006 campaign in which he mustered only 345 at-bats due to a bevy of hamstring, calf and lower back problems. This, together with a 2005 season in which he made only 427 plate appearances, reveals a player who is approaching the twilight of a brilliant, yet injury-prone career. His 2005 and 2006 at-bats totals constituted his lowest since 1995, and since 1993 he has averaged only 485 at-bats per season. The latter statistic is the more troubling one, because it indicates that even when in his prime, Alou had a hard time staying on the field. Consequently, this move has drawn the ire of the New York media, for much the same reason that many fantasy GMs will inevitably shy away from Alou on draft day - a player can't help a club if he's always in the tub.

The Real-world/Fantasy Analysis

The criticism is not entirely unwarranted. The media quite reasonably asks: why swap one injury prone left fielder for another? The fantasy player on draft day wonders: why sign an old man like Alou when you can go out and get a younger, more reliable model to plug into your outfield? 

The answer to these questions is simple. Alou is one of the most underappreciated hitters in the game, and those players that are capable of matching what he offers are going to cost you - either a $100 million contract or a top 50 draft pick. 

This is why you cannot evaluate a signing, real or fantasy, without considering the price that was paid for the player and what the available alternatives were. 

The Mets, in a free agent market that is flush with cash and short on legitimate talent, obtained a hitter who has produced seven 20-homer, 90-RBI seasons in the past 10 years and only had to commit $8 million for one season to get him. 

By way of comparison, the only other free agent outfielders who have ever produced comparable stats to Alou were Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee and J.D. Drew. In November, Soriano signed an eight-year deal with the Chicago Cubs worth $136 million and Lee signed a six-year deal with the Houston Astros worth $100 million. Drew is reportedly close to signing a five-year deal with the Boston Red Sox worth an estimated $75 million. All of these contracts will possibly become albatrosses to the teams that offered them within the next three years. 

Meanwhile, back in fantasy land, you should be able to snag Alou somewhere in between the 12th and 17th round in most drafts. This puts him in the 120 to 170 pick range, meaning that he is being selected in the same breath as players such as Cubs outfielder Jacque Jones, Detroit Tigers outfielder Craig Monroe, Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Pat Burrell and Colorado Rockies outfielder Brad Hawpe, to name a few. 

What's the difference between Alou and these other players? Alou is the only one with a realistic chance of putting together a .300-32-107 season in 2007. All of the other players mentioned above, and those like them, possess weaknesses as hitters that Alou does not. Some of them, such as Burrell and Monroe, hit for power but not average; some, such as Hawpe, are certainly promising, but hardly proven commodities. That is why those players are being taken in the middle rounds - because they're just not that good. Alou is different; the only reason Alou is being mentioned with these third-tier fantasy options is because of his age and history of injury, not because he lacks ability.

At this point you should be raising your hand and asking: where did the .300-32-107 numbers come from? Glad you asked. They are far from arbitrary; instead, they represent Alou's 2006 stat line projected over 500 at-bats. Sure, he didn't come close to compiling 500 at-bats in 2006, but he did amass 427 at-bats in 2005 and over 600 in 2004. And does anyone remember what Alou did that season? How about 106 runs, a .293 batting average, 39 homers and 106 RBI with the Cubs? Does that sound good to you in the 13th round? And 2004 doesn't even represent Alou at his best. See what he managed to do in 2000 with only 454 at-bats:

Table: Moises Alou, OF, New York Mets - Stats from 1993-2006

Year	Team	AB	R	HR	RBI	BA	OPS
1993	Mon	482	70	18	85	.286	.824
1994	Mon	422	81	22	78	.339	.989
1995	Mon	344	48	14	58	.273	.801
1996	Mon	540	87	21	96	.281	.797
1997	Fla	538	88	23	115	.292	.866
1998	Hou	584	104	38	124	.312	.981
2000	Hou	454	82	30	114	.355	1.039
2001	Hou	513	79	27	108	.331	.949
2002	ChC	484	50	15	61	.275	.757
2003	ChC	565	83	22	91	.280	.819
2004	ChC	601	106	39	106	.293	.919
2005	SF	427	67	19	63	.321	.918
2006	SF	345	52	22	74	.301	.884
Career	-	6660	1054	319	1229	.301	.884

No, we are not predicting that Alou will repeat his 2000, or even his 2004 performance. But we are pointing out that Alou is an underrated fantasy asset even at his advanced age. Not many players would have managed to produce the 22 homers and 74 RBI he did last season with only 345 AB in San Francisco's anemic lineup. His 2006 on-base-plus-slugging percentage was .923, which, had he managed enough plate appearances to qualify, would have placed him 10th in the National League, ahead of Soriano, Drew and Lee, not to mention fantasy studs Mets third baseman David Wright, Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado, Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and Atlanta Braves outfielder Andruw Jones.

Draft-day Calculus

The question is one of value, and it is three-fold. When evaluating an established player coming back from an injury, you should always ask yourself: (1) how many at-bats is reasonable to expect from him next year?; (2) what kind of production can we expect from him in those at-bats?; and (3) what will cost me to find that sort of production elsewhere in the marketplace?

The Mets looked at the marketplace and saw Soriano, a mediocre defensive player with a career on-base percentage of .325, command a deal that will pay him $17 million at the age of 38. They saw Lee, a terrible defensive player who has hit more than 32 home runs only once in his career, receive $16 million per season. They heard that Drew, who has hit more than 25 homers and compiled more than 90 RBI only twice in an eight-year career, is likely to rake in $15 million per season.

They understood that they were not participating in a rational marketplace. And then they saw Alou, who rejected two-year deals from other clubs because he wanted to play for a winner. They saw a six-time All-Star with five 100 RBI seasons under his belt. They saw a player whose career OPS is among the top 80 of all-time. They surely asked themselves the same value-driven questions that you must ask yourself on draft day. And all things considered, it looks like they made a very wise decision, especially since they have Milledge and super-sub Endy Chavez there to replace Alou when he inevitably heads to the tub. 

When you do that draft day value-calculus, keep these factors in mind: (1) Alou moves from one pitchers' park to a neutral one, so playing in Shea should not hurt his power numbers; (2) he is likely to hit sixth in a fearsome Mets lineup and should see a wealth of RBI opportunities behind shortstop Jose Reyes, outfielder Carlos Beltran, Wright and Delgado; and (3) with its mighty offense and both Milledge and Chavez in the fold, New York has the luxury of resting Alou on a frequent basis, which should help him avoid the trainer's table. 

2007 Projection and Advice

Our official prediction: .315-25-90 in 425 at-bats. The move to New York tremendously increases his RBI and batting average figures, because it's difficult to pitch around a hitter when there are already men on base in front of him. This truly makes him a bargain in the 120-to-170 pick range, although his value is severely minimized in leagues that lack a disabled list roster slot, because he is sure to land there at some point next season. 

Beware, however, of equally astute owners. It is very possible that the move to New York will make him a popular “sleeper” come April, so be prepared to take him as early as the 10th round. 

And even when he makes that inevitable trip to the tub, remind yourself that's just the price of doing business with a masher in the 12th round - the only way he slips that far is if he's old, injury prone or both. 

The bottom line: although he often has trouble staying on the field, he has never had a problem producing when he's on it. 

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Anthony Agolia
Anthony graduated with a B.A. in Philosophy from James Madison University in 2002, and is currently attending Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law. His aspirations include becoming the GM of the NY Mets and establishing the MLBPA (Major League Beer Pong Association). He strongly believes that the Yankees are the devil, the words flammable and inflammable shouldn't mean the same thing, and that there is no intelligent life anywhere in our universe. He has been with KFFL since 2005.

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