Juan Pierre, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

December 2, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Mitch Fortner
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Nov. 22 the Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to a five-year, $44 million contract with speedy free-agent outfielder Juan Pierre. Last season with the Chicago Cubs the 29-year-old centerfielder hit .292 with 58 stolen bases, three home runs, 87 runs scored and 40 RBI. The Dodgers, a team believed to be in search of power this offseason, decided to sign another bat to help the top of its lineup due to the lack of power hitters on the free-agent market.

Pierre will likely lead off for the Dodgers, although current shortstop Rafael Furcal handled the role during the 2006 season. Furcal hit .300 on the year with 15 home runs, 63 RBI and 37 stolen bases. Furcal brings more power to the lineup, while Pierre brings more speed; however, they are players with similar capabilities and the leadoff role could be interchangeable for Los Angeles next season. In Furcal and Pierre, the Dodgers now have two impressive bats at the top of their lineup, both of whom have the ability to get on base with the threat to steal every time.

Background

For his career Pierre has an on-base percentage of .351; however, over the past two seasons this number has been lower, with last season's on-base percentage at .330. Despite the decline in his on-base percentage, Pierre is a solid hitter, and his 1,182 hits since 2001 are the second most in the majors, behind only Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki. In addition to his hit total, Pierre is a difficult batter to strike out; the lefty struck out just 38 times in 699 at-bats last season.

For the Dodgers, who will likely lose outfielder J.D. Drew (.283, 20 home runs and 100 RBI in 493 at-bats) after he opted out of the final three years of his contract, it figures to be a season of small ball. The offense will probably rely on Pierre and Furcal’s ability to get into scoring position and make things easier for the rest of the lineup, namely, first baseman Nomar Garciaparra (.303, 20 home runs and 93 RBI in 469 at-bats) and second baseman Jeff Kent (.292, 14 home runs and 68 RBI in 403 at-bats). Pierre has been among the elite when it comes to stealing bases and hasn’t finished lower than second in the National League in that category since 2000. Pierre and Furcal at the top of the lineup give the Dodgers a duo which has amassed 551 stolen bases since 2000, including 95 last season.

Factors

Dodger Stadium, one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the majors, should help the style of play the team figures to have this upcoming season after choosing to add Pierre rather than a slugger. With other teams struggling to find offense without the long ball, the Dodgers will likely adopt a style of play that does not rely on home runs. This could help the team steal (no pun intended) games from some of the more potent offenses in the majors.

When the Dodgers take to the road against NL West opponents such as the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, small ball will be useful as each of these parks is pitcher-friendly. Their other two division rivals, the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks, each have two of the more hitter-friendly parks in the majors; however, last season Coors field saw more shutouts than any other park in baseball. Each of these parks' tendencies should have little or no impact on Pierre’s power numbers, as he has just 12 home runs in his seven-year career.

Pierre will be leaving the NL Central, where the Cincinnati Reds led the NL in opponents caught stealing percentage at 41 percent. He isn't likely to miss the Pittsburgh Pirates (34 percent, tied for third) and St. Louis Cardinals (34 percent, tied for third), either. The NL West's toughest team to steal on last year was Arizona (33 percent, fifth), and that division included the league's worst team in that category, San Diego (15 percent). The Padres may be able to improve on that figure without catcher Mike Piazza (12 percent last year, 23 percent in his career), to whom they declined to offer arbitration. However, catcher Josh Bard, the team's top option for now, threw out just 17 percent of potential base stealers while with the team last year and has a 29 percent success rate in his five-year career. Pierre may be able to improve on his career stolen base percentage of 74 percent, which was the same figure he posted last season.

Fantasy Outlook

With the addition of Pierre the Los Angeles Dodgers have added another talented baseball player to a team that made the playoffs in 2006. If the Dodgers hope to return to the playoffs, they will probably have to ignore the claims that chicks dig the long ball, and focus on small ball. Pierre shouldn't lose opportunities with Los Angeles, who finished second in the league with 128 steals last year. His value figures to remain high because he'll be one of the top stolen-base options in the NL.

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Mitch Fortner
Mitch Fortner has been a KFFL contributor since 2006.

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