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IDP: Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 13
November 30, 2006
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - STRONG PLAYSBryan Thomas, New York Jets at Green Bay Packers This week's match-up should be a good one for Thomas. The Packers have a very young line, and Thomas has not had problems getting to the quarterback lately. Over the past four weeks (three games), he is averaging 3.33 tackles and one sack per game. The Packers are giving up 24 tackles and 1.1 sacks per game to this position over the past four weeks. There could be snow in Green Bay for the game, which means Green Bay could be running the ball lots. Thomas should have no problem hitting his four-week averages this week. He comes recommended as a strong play as a No. 1 defensive lineman. Colin Cole, Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets With a young line, and Jets quarterback Chad Pennington struggling lately it could be a big week for Packers defensive lineman. There could also be snow at game-time which makes it more likely that mistakes will be made by both teams. Cole should benefit from this and improve off his four-week averages of five tackles and 0.3 sacks per game. The Jets have been allowing 23 tackles, one sack and 0.33 interceptions per game to the position over the past four weeks. Consider Cole a strong play as a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive linemen this week. Justin Smith, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens This week's match-up will provide the Bengals with a real test of whether or not they are playoff contenders. They have beaten up on some weaker opposition in past weeks and could finally get a good challenge from the 9-2 Ravens. Smith has cooled off after a quick start to the season and is averaging 5.8 tackles and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks. The Ravens are allowing 26 tackles and 0.6 sacks per game to this position over the past four weeks. Smith comes recommended as a strong play as a No. 3 defensive lineman this week. DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - WEAK PLAYSLeonard Little, St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Little has been a beast for the Rams over the past four weeks, averaging 3.8 tackles and 1.5 sacks per game. However, all that success has brought more attention to him, and he is now facing more double-teams, and this week is up against the worst offense to this position. The Cardinals are allowing only 11 tackles, 0.33 sacks and 0.67 fumble recoveries to this position over the past four weeks. That works out to about an average for 15.7 fantasy points per week, by far the lowest in that time. Thus, Little should be seen as a weak play as only a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive lineman this week. Mathias Kiwanuka, New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Kiwanuka's non-sack of Titans quarterback Vince Young last week opened up the debate on whether or not quarterbacks are too protected or not. Regardless of your position on it, from a fantasy standpoint it didn't help as he missed out on some valuable fantasy points that he could have used. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 3.8 tackles, 0.3 sacks and 0.3 interceptions per game. The Cowboys offense has improved by leaps and bounds since quarterback Tony Romo was inserted as the starter. They are only allowing 15 tackles and 0.8 sacks to this position over the past four weeks. In what should be a big divisional game this week, Kiwanuka should be used as a No. 3 defensive lineman and is a weak play. Bobby McCray, Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins The Jaguars could be getting defensive tackle Marcus Stroud (ankle) back this week, which will greatly improve the value of the other lineman as Stroud is a beast in the middle, constantly demanding double-teams and eating up offensive lineman. However, even if he does return, it is not the week for Jaguars lineman to be played as the Dolphins are allowing only 16 tackles, 0.4 sacks, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks. It is should be hard for McCray to reach his four-week averages of two tackles and 0.5 sacks per game. He is considered a weak play as an injury replacement this week. LINEBACKERS - STRONG PLAYSDeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders Ryans sits behind only Packers rookie A.J. Hawk as the top fantasy linebacker this week. The 2006 second-round pick out of Alabama has averaged 9.8 tackles and 0.3 sacks per game over the past four weeks. The Raiders will have a new offensive coordinator for this game, and it could lead to Raiders quarterback Aaron Brooks utilizing his tight ends more often as he both becomes acclimated to the offense and it is likely going to be a bigger part of John Shoop's offense. The Raiders are allowing 29 tackles and 1.5 sacks per game to this position. Ryans comes ranked as the second best linebacker overall (a No. 1) and is a strong play. Gerald Hayes, Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams Hayes has been a tackling machine lately for the Cardinals, picking up nine tackles per game over the past four weeks (three games). Rams running back Steven Jackson is one of the strongest backs in the league. The two should meet early and often this week and Hayes will have a good chance of improving on his four week-week averages. The Rams are giving up 22 tackles, 0.9 sacks and 0.3 interceptions per game to the position over the past four weeks. Consider Hayes a strong play as a No. 1 or No. 2 linebacker this week. Akin Ayodele, Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants The Cowboys defense has had the best job in the world lately; defending a lead and being able to sit back and wait for opposing teams to try and force the ball and make mistakes. Ayodele has benefited and it shows in his numbers as he is averaging 6.8 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.5 interceptions over the past four weeks. The Giants are a team struggling and that could mean a big day for the Cowboys defense this week. Over the past four weeks, the Giants are giving up 25 tackles, 0.3 sacks and 0.3 interceptions per game. Ayodele should be considered a strong play as a No. 2 or No. 3 linebacker this week. LINEBACKERS - WEAK PLAYSRandall Godfrey, San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills The Chargers will get linebacker Shawne Merriman back this week, which will be a big boost to the team, as if they didn't already have enough. Godfrey, who is averaging 8.8 tackles and 0.5 sacks per game over the past four weeks, has been a beast for them on the inside left; however, with Merriman now manning the outside again, teams might not go at them as much anymore. It doesn't help they are playing a Bills team that is allowing only 21 tackles and 0.3 sacks per game to the position over the past four weeks. This week, Godfrey is still considered a No. 2 linebacker but he is a weak play. Will Witherspoon, St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Part of the reason defensive players struggle to hit their four-week averages against the Cardinals is because the Cardinals offense ranks in the bottom third of the league in time of possession. They are not on the field long enough to give defensive players chances to make plays. Witherspoon is averaging 8.3 tackles and 0.5 sacks per game over the past four weeks could struggle against the Cardinals this week. The Cardinals are allowing only 19 tackles, 0.33 sacks and 0.33 interceptions per game over the past four weeks to this position. Because of the poor match-up, Witherspoon should be used as a No. 3 linebacker and is a weak play this week Andra Davis, Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs This week it is all about the match-up for Davis. Davis might be averaging 8.5 tackles per game over the past four weeks, but he is up against the worst offense to face if you are a linebacker. They are allowing only 16 tackles and 0.3 sacks per game to this position over the past four weeks. That more than anything is why Davis is considered a weak play and should be viewed as nothing more than a No. 3 or injury replacement at the position. DEFENSIVE BACKS - STRONG PLAYSTerrence Holt, Detroit Lions at New England Patriots The Patriots are tied atop the league for fantasy points allowed to defensive backs over the past four weeks (32 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 1.3 interceptions allowed per game). It is because of that Holt comes highly recommended this week. Holt has averaged 7.5 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks. This week he should be viewed as a strong play as a No. 2 defensive back. Danieal Manning, Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings The Vikings explosion on offense opened some eyes last week (even if it was against the Cardinals), and it has raised Manning's value this week. The Bears defense is one of the most opportunistic in the league, and Manning should be able to hit his four-week averages of four tackles and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game. The Vikings are allowing 36 tackles, one fumble recovery and 0.5 interceptions per game to the position over the past four weeks. The tackle total is the highest allowed among offenses over that period. Manning comes recommended as a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive back and is a strong play this week. Richard Marshall, Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles With quarterback Jeff Garcia's Pro Bowl days long behind him, it could be a feast day for Panthers defensive backs this week. As well, the Eagles like to sling running back Brian Westbrook out as a receiver quite often, and he remains their top offensive weapon. Expect whoever is covering him to have a big week. Marshall is averaging four tackles, 0.33 fumble recoveries and 0.33 interceptions per game over the past four weeks (three games). Opposing defensive backs are averaging 32 tackles, 0.33 fumble recoveries and 0.33 interceptions per game over the past four weeks (three games). Marshall is only a No. 3 defensive back this week; however, he is a strong play. DEFENSIVE BACKS - WEAK PLAYSShawn Springs, Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons With Falcons quarterback Michael Vick passing for only 84 yards last week, it killed pretty much any value defensive backs had. Springs and the Redskins get to play him this week and it could be tough for them to reach their four-week averages. Over that time, Springs is averaging 6.3 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game. The Falcons are giving up just 21 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.8 interceptions per game to the position over the past four weeks. Springs still comes recommended as a No. 2 defensive back, however, he is a weak play this week. Marquand Manuel, Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets Manuel has been solid for the Packers against the run; however, his pass coverage skills have been exposed this season. With the Jets lacking a strong running game, Manuel could find it hard to make plays this week. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 4.5 tackles per game. The Jets are among the worst to face fantasy-wise for defensive backs. They are allowing only 29 tackles and 0.33 interceptions per game to the position over the past four weeks (three games). Manuel should be viewed as no better than a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive back this week, and is a weak play. Marcus Trufant, Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos The Broncos will be giving rookie quarterback Jay Cutler his first start of the season, and it is up in the air what this means for the offense. They could scale it back and focus on the running game (always one of head coach Mike Shanahan's favorite things to do), or with the increased arm strength they get out of Cutler, it could mean they take more shots downfield. Combine that uncertainty with them only allowing 18 tackles and 1.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks and it will be a tough match-up this week. Trufant, who is averaging 6.5 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks, is considered a No. 3 defensive back this week, and is a weak play. Check out these other reports....
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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies. Other reports you'll enjoy.... |
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