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Strategy: Looking to the Future

November 30, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

For owners who belong in keeper leagues, the end of the NFL season brings more than just the playoffs. It also becomes the time when players need to be evaluated. They need to look at their roster to determine who to protect and who to dump back into the pool. In deep leagues it's more than just next year; players expected to have an impact in several years should be identified now.

In this report we'll take an early look at some targets to protect in keeper leagues, at the major skill positions. However, in the spirit of not insulting owners, we won't bother with whether to protect acknowledged studs like San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson or Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. If you need to be told that, you're in more trouble than you know. Instead, we'll focus on players with four years or less in the league. Some recommendations will be no-brainers, others will be more of a leap.

QUARTERBACKS TO PROTECT

None of the selections below should come as a surprise. It's the watch list that may intrigue some owners.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers - The Bolts have not missed a beat in transitioning to Rivers. In fact, they may even be better than last year from an offensive standpoint. For opponents, that's a depressing thought. Rivers is carrying a 65.0 percent completion rating and a 94.5 quarterback rating. Additionally, he is surrounded by youth and tremendous skill on the offensive side. Adding another threat in the receiving crew next season will only add to the upside of Rivers, which is likely due to wide receiver Keenan McCardell's age (37 in January.)

Alex D. Smith, San Francisco 49ers - Of all the surprises during this season, the 49ers have to rank in the top five. They are competitive in their games, and Smith is one of the reasons (the other reason appears below.) While his stats do not place him at stud levels - yet - they are markedly improved from the dismal 2005 campaign he endured. He's completing 60.9 percent of his passes and has an 80.0 quarterback rating. The skill positions around him are young, talented and he plays in one of the weaker NFC divisions from a defensive standpoint.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - After chucking five touchdowns in his Thanksgiving Day game, Romo should be flying under no one's radar. Don't expect performances like that to be the norm, however. His completion percentage is at a gaudy 69.4 percent, and he is at the top of the league with a 110.8 quarterback rating. His numbers will eventually regress to the mean as defenses compile more tape, but his future is bright. An outstanding defense, two starting-caliber running backs behind him and a quality receiving crew, all point to continued success. The biggest concern comes from the age of his starting receivers and the coaching situation after this year.

QUARTERBACKS TO WATCH

Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos - Cutler gets the nod starting Week 13, now let's see what he does. In his corner: a stout defense, a usually reliable run game and an offensive coach. Counting against him: a tough division and high expectations.

Vince Young, Tennessee Titans - Classify Young as a long-term watch candidate. His numbers for much of this season aren't even up to snuff for your bench quarterback. Anyone with a smidge of football knowledge can see that he's starting to put it together. His Week 12 performance against the New York Giants may be an indication of what owners can expect in the next year or two. The young Titans (pun intended) will grow with him.

J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills - Losman has yet to knock anyone over with his performance, but the pieces are in place for him to succeed. A solid running back, potential in their receivers and a defense capable of providing short fields should be enough for him. Only one thing can stop Losman now: himself.

RUNNING BACKS TO PROTECT

As with the quarterbacks list, the recommendations here are common sense. All of these players should deliver immediate returns regardless of league depth.

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts - If anyone needed a sign whether Addai was for real, it came during his Week 12 game when he logged four touchdowns and 171 yards. With 781 rushing yards and seven scores, Addai leads all rookie backs. He is averaging 14 carries per game and reeling off 5.1 yards per carry. Playing in the NFL's top offense year in and year out will ensure Addai stays a top tier ‘back.

Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots - Coming in with high expectations, Maroney has fulfilled each one. He has the power to run between the tackles, speed to get outside and is capable of contributing to the passing attack. He has logged 610 yards, four touchdowns and has averaged 4.0 yards per carry splitting time with an aging Corey Dillon. Expect Maroney to assume the starter role in 2007, and playing for a team never out of contention makes him one to keep.

Chester Taylor, Minnesota Vikings - When Taylor joined the Vikings in free agency, he was tagged as the workhorse, and thus far that's been the case. He is second in the league in carries and has racked up 999 yards with five touchdowns as of Week 12. Even better, he's in a run-heavy offense and has the left side of his line locked up for years. The 2007 season will likely bring changes to the quarterback and receiving core, but the Vikings will remain a run-first team.

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers - Gore is the other primary reason for San Fran's surprise success this year. With 1,177 yards, five touchdowns and a staggering 5.6 yards-per-carry average, Gore is capable of taking over a game. He is also a receiving threat, as he's pulled in 41 receptions for 318 yards thus far. The young offensive talent surrounding Gore makes him the very definition of a keeper.

RUNNING BACKS TO WATCH

Cedric Benson, Chicago Bears - Benson could be in the section above for many owners, but there are a couple of caution flags concerning Benson as a full time starter. The coaching staff has kept his touches static, not increasing them over the course of the year. Benson is also managing just 3.5 yards per carry, versus Thomas Jones' 4.0 average. In Benson's favor is the fact that Jones' contract expires after 2007 and there is minimal cap impact to cutting him sooner.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers - Despite missing three games, Williams is carrying a healthy 4.8 yards per carry, to go along with 335 yards on 70 touches. The Panthers, preseason favorites to make a Super Bowl run, have been rather enigmatic this year. This should not diminish the talent at the skill positions. Over the last two games, Williams' workload has increased in the number of touches he's seen, especially in Week 12 when he replaced fellow running back DeShaun Foster. Also working in his favor is the fact that Foster has a history of injuries, and Nick Goings is an unrestricted free agent at year's end, which opens up the competition a little more.

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints - Once the hype machine throttled down, Bush found himself in a type of wonderland. As in: “Wonder where I'll line up on this play?” While Bush's numbers are not commiserating with his draft position, there's little doubt that he will be an important cog in New Orleans' offensive attack next year and many years following that. He is simply too much of an athletic marvel.

Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants - Jacobs is the heir apparent in New York, provided current starter Tiki Barber delivers on his retirement proclamation. With youth and talent at quarterback, tight end and receiver, Jacobs will have every opportunity to become a stud. He is already a goal-line demon. However, be sure to realize it is not a lock to be the team's starter next season, with or without Barber in the fold.

WIDE RECEIVERS TO PROTECT

There have been a handful of surprise performers at receiver position this year. Not surprising is our recommendation to keep them.

Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints - This seventh-round draft pick came out of nowhere to find himself a starter on fantasy rosters everywhere. The rookie has 54 receptions, 869 yards and seven scores - that includes missing one game! A prolific quarterback in Drew Brees and an aging vet in Joe Horn on the opposite side of the field could indicate that Colston makes the leap to becoming a No. 1 receiver in 2007.

Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills - With 60 receptions, 880 yards and four touchdowns, Evans is on pace to hit career highs. This also happens to be his third season, that magical mark when receivers are supposed to “get it.” Well, Evans apparently does. The reasons for success given in the J.P. Losman segment above apply here, although Evans will obviously rely more on the performance of his quarterback. Inconsistency is his biggest negative, which can largely be attributed to the offense as a whole.

Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets - Another third-year product, Cotchery is setting new career highs as well. With 51 catches, 666 yards and four scores, Cotchery has earned the trust of quarterback Chad Pennington. The Jets possess two prolific receivers and a rejuvenated quarterback. The caution for this team comes from the running game. If that facet of the team begins to perform consistently, it could make for a potent offense.

WIDE RECEIVERS TO WATCH

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - This rookie has become a favorite target of quarterback Brett Favre and a great complement to veteran wide receiver Donald Driver. He has 36 receptions, 561 yards and three touchdowns. In deep leagues he could flirt for the No. 2 receiver slot. As with the Pack every offseason, the annual "Favre Retirement Watch" will play a significant role in whether Jennings is worth protecting.

Mark Clayton, Baltimore Ravens - In his second year, Clayton is surpassing all his rookie numbers across the board. He has 48 receptions, 622 yards and three touchdowns. With Baltimore coming into offensive respectability, the skill players are garnering more respect.

Nate Burleson, Seattle Seahawks - Burleson gets attention here for a couple of reasons that have nothing to do with his performance in 2006. Fellow receivers Bobby Engram and D.J Hackett are free agents after the season. (In Hackett's case, he is a restricted free agent.) Burleson has a high-profile contract for seven years and $49 million, but in reality is a three or four year deal with $5.25 million in bonus money. Still, that is too much money for a bench receiver or special teams player, and he has too much talent to sit. Look for Burleson to team up with Darrell Jackson and Deion Branch to create one the league's most formidable aerial groups.

TIGHT ENDS TO PROTECT

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers - Hmmm, three 49ers have made it to this list. Could they be an up-and-coming group? Davis missed a good chunk of his rookie year to injury, but that should not dissuade owners from locking him up. Taken with the sixth pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, Davis will get every opportunity to shine. As well, fellow tight end Eric Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. As of this writing, the team has not come to a contract extension with Johnson.

Owen Daniels, Houston Texans - The rookie has been a surprise out of nowhere. So far he's logged 31 receptions, 316 yards and five touchdowns. Despite the Texans being a perennial doormat since their entry into the league, the offensive stars have fantasy value. Daniels could be the latest member of that group.

Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins - Now that we finally have the quarterback issue settled over there, we can start looking at other skill positions. Cooley had a productive 2005 season but started off slow in 2006, not scoring his first touchdown until Week 6. Right now he has 35 receptions for 470 yards and five touchdowns. At the current pace he could surpass last year's yardage and score numbers. As with all things Washington, pay attention to what the front office does, however.

TIGHT ENDS TO WATCH

Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans - After a non-descript rookie year, Scaife came into his sophomore season and has started to groove with rookie quarterback Vince Young. Scaife has 25 catches for 331 yards and two scores. The Titans are one of the youngest teams in the league, but they have talent in the skill positions. The caution with Scaife is the head coach position. If a new one is brought in, this will affect the offensive game planning. While we feel Jeff Fisher will stick with the team, it is worthy of note. One final aspect in Scaife's favor is that Young was also his quarterback at the University of Texas, so the two have chemistry and are familiar with each other.

Kellen Winslow Jr., Cleveland Browns - Sure he has 66 receptions for 649 yards and three scores, so why the watch status? Aren't those proven numbers? Sure, but if there's one thing Cleveland has, it's uncertainty at the quarterback position. Recent team reports hint that another signal-caller may be brought in next year. This throws a wrench into the receiving end of the pass. Winslow should - SHOULD - be a slam-dunk keeper based simply on his performance, but outside factors can influence an owner's decision.

There you have it - a few early stabs at players worth protecting in your dynasty league. As stated in the intro, many of these names are common sense, but it's the evaluation process that matters. Look for young players surrounded by other young players who can grow together. Hunt down contract information on some of the players in competing positions, especially aging veterans who are not likely to be extended. Measure the performance of connected players (how often a quarterback throws his tight end and who gets the touches in the red zone, etc.) Never, though, disregard the impact organizational decisions will have on an entire team.