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Z - Impact Analysis

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs

November 22, 2006 @ 16:00:00

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By Steve Ungrey
Edited by Ryan Dodson

There's nothing like looking out at Wrigley Field and seeing empty seats.

For a team that prides itself on filling Wrigley for 81 games and selling out pretty much every home contest, the sight of fans staying home was too much to bear. Sure, they'd already purchased their tickets back in February, but they chose to eat the tickets rather than go watch what Chicago Cubs baseball had become.

How the mighty had fallen. It was almost as if Steve Bartman's ill-timed grab for a foul ball cast a pall on the team, a curse that didn't make its ugly presence known until three years later. The year 2006 was the year everything dropped into the toilet for the Cubbies, with the team falling to a 66-96 record and vying instead for basement honors in the National League Central with the Pittsburgh Pirates. For a team that prided itself on competing with St. Louis and Houston each year in the Central, it was a spectacular comedown.

No sooner had the postseason ended than third baseman Aramis Ramirez dropped another bomb on the team. Ramirez had an opt-out clause in his contract similar to the one Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder J.D. Drew used in his quest to become a free agent. After contract talks stalled out in October Ramirez used the opt-out and entered what looked like a decent free-agent market for power hitters.

His stay in the market was a brief one. Two weeks following the void of the last two years on a $42 million contract, Ramirez inked a five-year deal worth $73 million that also includes an option for 2012. The total package looks spectacular on paper, but does it hurt the Cubs?

In one word: No.

Let's review. Ramirez was a highly touted prospect in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization throughout the late 1990s, and his first taste of big-league success came with a .235-6-24 performance in 1998. He spent parts of the next two seasons with the parent club before putting together a 2001 season to remember. While the Pirates tanked as a team, Ramirez became a hero in the Steel City with a .300 batting average, 34 homers and 112 RBI. While Pittsburgh didn't know how long it could keep a potential star slugger in the system before free agency gobbled him up, it was willing to take the chance.

Ah, but with youth comes the inevitable attitude. Whispers in the Pittsburgh media were that Ramirez was immature, with an expanding ego to match. Granted, he wasn't a head case like Albert Belle or Barry Bonds, but he still frustrated fantasy players by regressing in 2002 with a season that included half his homer total of the year before.

He seemed to rebound a bit in 2003, with a .280-12-67 total through 96 games. That was enough to entice the Cubs, who were in the middle of their 2003 stretch drive at the time and needed some speed and power in the lineup. Ramirez came over to the Cubs along with outfielder Kenny Lofton in a trade that sent shortstop Jose Hernandez and a couple minor leaguers to the Pirates.

In 63 games with the Cubs, Ramirez hit .259-15-39 and was a big reason why the team eventually made it to the National League Championship Series. The next three years were productive ones for Ramirez, who hit no worse than .291 (in 2006) and recorded 105 home runs and 314 RBI in that 2004-06 span.

At times this season, Ramirez was left unprotected in the lineup thanks to injuries to key players like first baseman Derrek Lee, and the team suffered because of injuries to pitchers like Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. The end result was 66 wins, general disinterest in the team come September (empty seats at Wrigley??) and a profound sense that something needed to change, and fast.

Credit general manager Jim Hendry for recognizing the need to keep Ramirez in Cubbie blue and white. With a healthy Lee and the addition of slugging outfielder Alfonso Soriano, Ramirez is part of a solid 3-4-5 contingent. The exit of center fielder Juan Pierre to the Los Angeles Dodgers may force Hendry to break up that lineup into individual pieces, but the best bet is Hendry isn't done dealing and signing players.

Ramirez is only 28 years old and will be in his early 30s when this five-year contract expires, so there is no age risk with this deal (unlike Soriano, who will be 38 years old when his deal expires). With Soriano in the lineup, Ramirez will get a bit more protection to do what he does best: hit.

There is no question the Cubs need to change the way they do business if they are to succeed in the NL Central, and this will help out big-time. The Ramirez deal looks like a bargain now compared to the $136 million doled out to Soriano (around $17 million a year for Soriano and $14 million for Ramirez). With a more power-laden lineup, the hitting has been achieved. Hendry just needs to find some pitching now.

From a fantasy standpoint, Ramirez is a solid top-tier selection as a third baseman thanks to his high batting average, low strikeout totals (185 whiffs in the past three seasons combined) and ability to blast the long ball. This should not change even with a five-year contract in hand. Ramirez's maturity hasn't been in doubt for a few years now, and there's more room for improvement. Could he hit 40 home runs someday? It remains to be seen.



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Author Bio

Steve Ungrey

Steve Ungrey has been playing fantasy baseball since 1994. An avid baseball nut, he may be one of the only people who starts the spring training countdown immediately after the final out of the World Series. If there's a fantasy baseball or baseball preview magazine for 2003, chances are he has it. A sportswriter at The Grand Rapids Press, Steve has written for KFFL since 2001, concentrating on improving the site's baseball coverage but also helping the site with its unparalleled football coverage.

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