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Strategy: How to Manage Inclement Weather

November 22, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Ryan Dodson

"Bundle up everyone, it's getting cold out there." This advice from your mother can easily be applied in outdoor stadiums across the league. As the mercury drops and the winds pick up in the north, fantasy owners need to account for this. Green Bay, Chicago, Buffalo, New England and Pittsburgh, are some of the more celebrated venues. After the Thanksgiving holiday, owners need to scrutinize their roster and give thanks if their schedule stays indoors. But for the majority, changes prompted by weather are coming.

Let's look at some common scenarios.

RUNNER UP

The logic is simple: When the cold turns and winds buffet the field, coaches like to play ball security. What does this mean to owners? It means that the ground game takes precedence. If you own Detroit Lions wide receiver Roy E. Williams, then heads up during Week 13 when they head to New England. If the weather is a factor, head coach Rod Marinelli will lean on the ground game and likely call more of a run-heavy ratio in his plays. Actually, the Patriots defense may cause that to happen as well.

How about another example? The Jacksonville Jaguars head north to Buffalo in Week 12. If you own running back Fred Taylor or Maurice Jones-Drew, anticipate them getting more touches. And more touches mean more chances to score points. The Jaguar receivers have been having trouble holding onto the ball anyway and unpredictable weather patterns can only exacerbate that flaw. Head coach Jack Del Rio may button down his game plan, favoring conservative ball control in order to lessen the risk of turnovers.

LISTEN UP

Coaching press conferences are often available via the internet, usually from a team's web site. Skim through the answers and see if there are indications on game planning. Terms like ball security, limiting mistakes and practicing in simulated conditions are all hints. You may have to practice your art of reading between the lines, but the signs are there to be seen. Reading them correctly will assist you in adjusting your roster. This approach extends to coordinators and players as well, since they quite frequently get interviewed in the days leading up to the game.

"D" IT UP

Whether you play standard defensive teams or individual defensive players, winter is the time of year to start switching up your defensive matchups with an eye towards weather. In many leagues there are a number of defensive teams sitting on waivers because they don't return significant points on a regular basis to warrant a roster spot. In IDP leagues the waiver pool is laden with players just waiting to make an impact to your roster. Take, for instance, the New York Jets. In fantasy terms they are not even noteworthy. But in Week 12 they entertain the Houston Texans at home. During the last four games the Men in Green have only given up 0.3 running touchdowns and just 1.3 passing scores per game, while grabbing a pick in each. Good for leagues that award on opponents' point totals. Add in 2.3 sacks per game over that same stretch and things become more interesting. They may not be the Ravens, but this is a matchup that could pay dividends. Chances are they're available in your league. Or if you play IDP, take a look at individual players. Linebacker Jonathan Vilma is likely taken, but how about safety Kerry Rhodes? In the last four games he's logged 27 tackles, a pick, a sack and a fumble recovery.

Face it; defensive players are coached up when an indoor or warm weather team comes north. They are expected to go for the strip and the tip, to create turnovers in order to create a win. Against offensively challenged teams this presents quite an opportunity. A calculated gamble may result in a few extra points, which may be all you need to win.

Thus far in the 2006 season, we haven't had any extreme examples of weather affecting a game, unlike the memorable Nov. 2005 tilt between Chicago and San Francisco when the winds in Soldier Field tore the ball sideways on field goal attempts. And while a drop in temperature will not immediately mean a team stops throwing the ball, it will influence coaching decisions.

Owners with losing records allow those decisions to hurt them. Winning owners know how to use all factors in a game to their advantage.