NFL
MLB
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
NEWS
BLOGS
- All Blogs
GAMES
- Fantasy Football - Pick or Play
- College Football Bowl Pick'em
MOBILE
- Wireless
- RSS Feeds
APPS
- Android
- iPhone and iPad
SOCIAL
FORUMS
MyKFFL

Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

Strategy: Building for the Playoffs - Part II

November 16, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Last week we took a look at the major skill positions in fantasy with an eye toward trades that would help owners situate themselves for the upcoming playoff stretch. This week we'll follow up with three positions that many owners don't devote a lot of attention to, which can be a huge downfall.

Everyone at some time has won or lost a game by just a couple of points. Often that point differential can be found in the minor positions of tight end, kicker and defense, so that's whom we'll focus on. The following upfront disclaimers apply:

Except for season totals listed after each player, all stats are derived from the last four games. For most this will mean Weeks 7-10, except for when a team was on Bye. In that case we will also include Week 6.
Ensure you know when your league trading deadline is, so as not to waste all this useful information!
We will not be providing advice concerning top-tier studs in the tight end class, simply because it's often a futile exercise to trade for someone like San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates.
Lastly, more than a comprehensive list of trade scenarios, we're trying to show by example how you can identify players worth targeting.

TIGHT ENDS TO TRADE FOR

In order to determine some target players, we looked at how certain defenses have played against the position lately, as well as the upcoming schedule. KFFL provides in-depth statistical analysis beyond other web sites; these stats were used in the formulation of this report.

Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens: 38 receptions, 415 yards, five touchdowns. Heap has flirted with being a top-tier tight end throughout his career. Last year he finished with 75 receptions for 855 yards and seven scores. This year he is on pace to surpass those totals, so if he doesn't qualify as a stud after that, there is no justice in the world.

Week 13 - at Cincinnati. Allowing an average of 4.8 receptions, 67 yards and one touchdown to the position.
Week 14 - at Kansas City. Allowing an average of 6.3 receptions, 42 yards and 0.8 touchdowns to the position.
Week 15 - Cleveland. Toughest matchup, allowing an average of just 1.8 receptions, 19 yards and zero scores to the position.
Week 16 - at Pittsburgh. Allowing two receptions, 32 yards and 0.8 scores to the position.

Jerramy Stevens, Seattle Seahawks: Six receptions, 49 yards, two touchdowns. This may be a stretch projection for a tight end, given his current production levels. But Stevens has been battling injury all year and only started two games thus far. Don't forget, this is a player coming off a 45-catch, 455-yard, five-score season in 2005. His schedule has some favorable match-ups down the road. Better yet, he may be floating on waivers in your league.

Week 13 - at Denver. Allowing an average of 6.5 receptions and 65 yards, although no scores to the position. Good for leagues that award points on catches.
Week 14 - at Arizona. Allowing an average of four catches, 56 yards and 0.3 scores to the position.
Week 15 - San Francisco. Allowing an average of 4.5 catches, 56 yards and one score to the position.
Week 16 - San Diego. Allowing an average of 6.5 catches, 76 yards and 0.3 scores to the position.

Desmond Clark, Chicago Bears: 30 catches, 431 yards, four scores. Clark has been a surprise player this year. He is on pace to surpass his career bests of 51 catches, 566 yards and six scores back in 2001 with the Denver Broncos. As long as your fellow owner isn't a rabid Bears fan, you may have a chance to trade for Clark. His schedule during the playoff stretch is deceiving, although be aware that that the Bears may be resting players if they clinch home-field advantage early.

Week 13 - Minnesota. Allowing an average of four catches, 40 yards and 0.3 scores to the position.
Week 14 - at St. Louis. Allowing an average of four catches, 47 yards and one score to the position.
Week 15 - Tampa Bay. Allowing an average of 3.5 catches, 31 yards and zero scores to the position.
Week 16 - at Detroit. Allowing 3.3 catches, 29 yards and 0.5 scores to the position.

TIGHT ENDS TO TRADE AWAY

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys: At N.Y. Giants, New Orleans, at Atlanta, Philadelphia. Philadelphia is the best in the league defending against the tight end position. New Orleans is just a few spots back.

Benjamin Watson, New England Patriots: Detroit, at Miami, Houston, at Jacksonville. None of these defenses have given up more than 0.3 scores per game to the position in the last month.

Kellen Winslow Jr., Cleveland Browns: Kansas City, at Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, Tampa Bay. Two strong divisional defenses and three outdoor northern contests make for a gloomy passing picture.

PLACE KICKERS TO ACQUIRE

When looking at place kickers, weather plays a significant factor. The swirling winds in places like Chicago, Buffalo and New York often influence a coach's decision whether to attempt fields goals or not. Obviously kickers with a predominant indoor schedule will have an advantage over outdoor kickers, but that is simply one piece of the puzzle.

Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis Rams: 17-for-17 extra point attempts, 23-for-26 field goal attempts. In addition to playing for a consistent scoring team, Wilkins enjoys the cozy confines of the Edward Jones Dome. Though he has a couple of tough matchups during playoff weeks, they come inside at home.

Week 13 - Arizona. Allowing an average of 7.5 points per game. In last four games allowed 12-for-12 in XPAs and 6-for-6 FGAs.
Week 14 - Chicago. Allowing an average of 7.5 points per game. In last four games allowed 9-for-9 XPAs and 7-for-12 FGAs.
Week 15 - at Oakland. Allowing an average 7.8 points per game. In last four games allowed 4-for-4 XPAs and 9-for-10 FGAs.
Week 16 - Washington. Allowing an average of 9.8 points per game. In last four games allowed 9-for-9 XPAs and 10-for-10 FGAs.

Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers: 34-for-34 XPAs, 17-for-18 FGAs. San Diego's scoring prowess is reflected in the sheer number of extra points Kaeding has scored.

Week 13 - at Buffalo. Allowing an average of 5.2 points per game. In last four games allowed 9-for-9 XPAs and 4-for-5 FGAs.
Week 14 - Denver. Allowing an average of 7.5 points per game. In last four games allowed 6-for-6 XPAs and 8-for-10 FGAs.
Week 15 - Kansas City. Allowing an average of 6.2 points per game. In last four games allowed 10-for-10 XPAs and 5-for-6 FGAs.
Week 16 - at Seattle. Allowing an average of 6.5 points per game. In last four games allowed 8-for-8 XPAs and 6-for-7 FGAs.

Lawrence Tynes, Kansas City Chiefs: 20-for-21 XPAs, 13-for-15 FGAs. Despite an outdoor northern game in Cleveland followed immediately by a strong defensive team, Tynes could be a sleeper pick. He has very favorable match-ups in Weeks 15 and 16, right during your playoff run.

Week 13 - at Cleveland. Allowing an average of 6.3 points per game. In last four games allowed 7-for-7 XPAs and 6-for-7 FGAs.
Week 14 - Baltimore. Allowing an average of 6.8 points per game. In last four games allowed 9-for-9 XPAs and 6-for-8 FGAs.
Week 15 - at San Diego. Allowing an average of 10.5 points per game. In last four games allowed 12-for-13 XPAs and 10-for-11 FGAs.
Week 16 - at Oakland. Allowing an average 7.8 points per game. In last four games allowed 4-for-4 XPAs and 9-for-10 FGAs.

KICKERS TO TRADE AWAY

Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears: 29-for-29 XPAs, 23-for-23 FGAs. Minnesota, at St. Louis, Tampa Bay, at Detroit. Gould has had a surprising perfect season thus far. The recommendation to trade him is based purely on current value. With the winds starting to crank up in Soldier's Field, Gould may be at his peak right now. In Week 15 he faces a Tampa Bay team that has allowed just three FGAs in the last four games.

Matt Stover, Baltimore Ravens: 20-for-20 XPAs, 16-for-16 FGAs. At Cincinnati, at Kansas City, Cleveland, at Pittsburgh. The argument for Stover is somewhat similar. All of his remaining games are outdoors and three of them in notoriously difficult stadiums. With his perfect season, he has good value right now so it might be a good time to dangle him out there.

DEFENSES TO ACQUIRE

Minnesota Vikings: Nine interceptions, four fumble recoveries, 21 sacks, two defensive touchdowns, four special teams touchdowns. The Vikings have been raided through the air in the last couple of weeks, and that tends to make people forget that they are the third highest scoring defense in the league. They have upcoming games at Chicago, whom they controlled until the closing minutes during a Week 3 loss, at Detroit, the New York Jets and at Green Bay.

Oakland Raiders: 13 interceptions, one fumble recovery, 19 sacks, three defensive touchdowns. The offense has been abysmal, but Oakland's defense is holding up their end of the bargain. In the last four games they've logged two defensive touchdowns and nine interceptions. The coming schedule features Houston, at Cincinnati, St. Louis and Kansas City.

Arizona Cardinals: Nine interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries, 17 sacks, one defensive touchdown. Much of Arizona's defensive production has come during their last four games: six interceptions and five fumble recoveries. The road ahead features games at St. Louis, Seattle, Denver and at San Francisco.

DEFENSES TO TRADE AWAY

Cincinnati Bengals: Nine interceptions, five fumble recoveries, 20 sacks, zero defensive touchdowns. The Bengals' season-long stats may look fine, but they have slumped in the last four games, racking up just one interception and two sacks. Remaining games against Baltimore, Oakland, at Indianapolis and at Denver don't give much hope (Oakland contest aside).

New Orleans Saints: Four interceptions, six fumble recoveries, 25 sacks, two special teams touchdowns. Much like the Bengals, the Saints overall numbers look respectable, but have dropped significantly in the last four games. During that sprint they've only managed one interception, three fumble recoveries and 10 sacks. The sack total is fine, but you can't live off that for a playoff defense. The upcoming stretch holds San Francisco, at Dallas, Washington and at the New York Giants.

It's a hard game to play, jockeying for playoff position. Trades are difficult to assess for value, owners get attached to certain players and no one wants to be the guy who gave away a hidden stud. Just remember, if you aren't working to improve your team, someone else is, and that may be the guy who beats you during the playoff run.