Strategy: Building for the Playoffs: Part I

November 9, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Watch that turn ahead, it comes up quick. Around the other side is the rest of the 2006 NFL season, and if the first nine weeks were any indication, it's going to be a wild ride indeed.

So, it's time to start thinking playoffs.

Whoa, pal, you say. Aren't you jumping the gun? KFFL's response is to think about those owners who get left on the outside of the playoff brackets every year. Maybe they waited until Week 12 to strategize. Maybe you were even once one of them. Well, nevermore! In this report, we'll start taking a look at quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers with an eye towards trades that will help improve your team for the Week 13-16 playoff window in most online leagues.

Before we begin, a couple of caveats:

We will be targeting those consistent second-tier players. Face it, much as you'd like to believe otherwise, no sane owner is going to trade out San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson no matter who you throw at him.

Many league formats halt trading in early December, so familiarize yourself with the deadline of your league.

OK, onward...

QUARTERBACKS TO ACQUIRE

Alex D. Smith, San Francisco 49ers: 1,525 yards, nine touchdowns. Lost amid the 49ers' three lonely wins is the improved play of Smith. Although he has yet to set the world on fire, fans have hope. His 60 percent completion rate and 82.1 quarterback rating are good enough to compete. Better yet, his late season schedule has good matchups, and some owners may not be married to him, thus allowing you to pry Smith away.

• Week 13 - at New Orleans: Weak defense in the last four games. Allowing two touchdowns, 204 yards on average. Also allowing quarterbacks a 103.1 rating while hauling in just one pick. 
• Week 14 - Green Bay: Leads league in passing yards allowed for the season, at 2,145 yards. In last four games, allowing average of 223 yards and 1.5 touchdowns while only snagging one interception per game.
• Week 15 - at Seattle: Divisional foe giving up 256 passing yards on average for the last four games, along with 1.5 touchdowns. Only has one interception during same period.
• Week 16 - Arizona: Giving up just under 224 yards and one touchdown per game to the position. Six total interceptions in last four games are weighted heavily by four picks in Week 6 against Chicago.

Jake Plummer, Denver Broncos: 1,385 yards, eight touchdowns. After lagging to open the year, "Jake the Snake" has turned up the wick in recent weeks. He may even still be on waivers in a number of leagues. His year-end stretch looks good for him.

• Week 13 - Seattle: Divisional foe giving up 256 passing yards on average for the last four games, along with 1.5 touchdowns. Only has one interception during same period.
• Week 14 - at San Diego: Giving up 252 yards, along with just under two touchdowns per game. Only averaging one interception per game as well.
• Week 15 - at Arizona: Giving up just under 224 yards and one touchdown per game to the position. Six total interceptions in last four games are weighted heavily by four picks in Week 6 against Chicago.
• Week 16 - Cincinnati: Just two interceptions in last four games. Allowing 239 yards and just fewer than two touchdowns per game to the position.

QUARTERBACKS TO TRADE AWAY

The signal-callers listed below have a couple of strikes against them. They've either had a sub-par year thus far or are facing a tough stretch defensively during Weeks 13-16 and could be used for trade bait now.

Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears: 1,849 yards, 14 touchdowns. As much as anyone else, Grossman is responsible for the rampant enthusiasm in Chicago with his level of play. Of course, some could also say that he's responsible for the one loss last week to the Miami Dolphins. Welcome to a quarterback's life - no one said it would be fair.

Grossman is probably taken in your league since his production has not gone unnoticed by many. However, his point-draining penchant for throwing wild passes under pressure was on full display in Week 9. Grossman's schedule during Weeks 13-16 has just one lockdown defense, but five of his next seven games are on the road where he has performed miserably this year. In three road games this year he has thrown for 228 yards per game. More alarming would be the fact that he has just two touchdown passes and seven interceptions in those same contests! In the confines of Soldier Field, Grossman has thrown 12 touchdowns to just three picks and is averaging 233 yards per game. In addition, as the weather worsens in Chicago, passing comes at a premium.

• Week 13 - Minnesota: Of the six passing scores allowed by the Vikings in the last four games, four of them came in the Monday night debacle against the New England Patriots, which shows their inconsistency.
• Week 14 - at St. Louis: Allowing two touchdowns, 211 yards and have a solid pass rush from defensive end Leonard Little.
• Week 15 - Tampa Bay: The once-feared defense is allowing two touchdowns and 252 yards to the position. Worse, they've only tagged three interceptions during the last four games, all in the tilt against Philadelphia. However, the Bucs can outscheme Grossman's sophomoric coverage-reading skills with little effort.
• Week 16 - at Detroit: Giving 1.3 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks but also grabbing 1.3 picks per game, Detroit looks alright on paper. This could be a decent game for Grossman in your championship game, but you have to make it this far to reap the benefits.

Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions: 2,174 yards, 12 touchdowns. At New England, Minnesota, at Green Bay, Chicago. Though matchups in three of the four contests could provide trouble for the Lions' clicking offense, so it may be time to get what you can for Kitna.

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers: 1,730 yards, eight touchdowns. At Philadelphia, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, at Atlanta. Overall inconsistency by the team is the story here. Under head coach John Fox, Carolina has been very streaky, and fantasy success isn't built upon spotty play down the stretch.

RUNNING BACKS TO ACQUIRE

As with the quarterbacks above, we're not going after the Tier 1 backs that were most likely the first draft pick. You'd have to give up too much to get true value. Instead we'll target the next tier of guys taken after the second round in most leagues. These are players who won't necessarily become your No. 1 running back but can bring some great depth points, especially in leagues that allow flex players or award points per reception. Oddly enough, three of the players come from the same division.

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: 919 offensive yards, three touchdowns. Gore has brought stability and production to a position that has been wallowing for some time in San Fran. The youth in many of the skill position slots has fans anticipating an offensive resurgence in the years to come. For now, adding Gore to your squad should bring double-digit points on a frequent basis.

• Week 13 - at New Orleans: Allowing 122 rushing yards in last four games, along with 0.8 touchdowns.
• Week 14 - Green Bay: Allowing 97 rushing yards per game and 0.5 touchdowns.
• Week 15 - at Seattle: Allowing 122 rushing yards in last four games, along with 1.3 touchdowns.
• Week 16 - Arizona: Allowing 107 rushing yards and one touchdown per game.

Ahman Green, Green Bay Packers: 734 offensive yards, four touchdowns. Green is starting to show the burst that made him a fantasy favorite several seasons ago. It is likely he's vaulted into the No. 1 spot for a lot of owners, depending on how they drafted. This will make it harder to leverage a fair trade. Also, watch the Week 16 tilt with Minnesota, as the Vikings are stiffest run defense in the league.

• Week 13 - New York Jets: Allowing 145 yards and just over one rushing score per game since Week 5. Only three forced fumbles in same time span.
• Week 14 - at San Francisco: Giving 130 yards and 1.5 touchdowns to the position, as well as 4.3 yards per carry.
• Week 15 - Detroit: Allowing 151 yards, one touchdown and 5.1 yards per carry since Week 5.
• Week 16 - Minnesota: Toughest matchup. League leader, allowing measly 49 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game over last four weeks.

Thomas Jones, Chicago Bears: 699 offensive yards, three touchdowns. Jones has had an average year thus far, making him expendable to some owners. So, why should you want someone else's castoff? Winter is a-coming to Chicago, and that means Bears football: run, run and run some more.

• Week 13 - Minnesota: Toughest matchup. League leader, allowing measly 49 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game over last four weeks.
• Week 14 - at St. Louis: Giving up 162 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game, along with 5.4 yards per carry, since Week 5.
• Week 15 - Tampa Bay: Allowing just 104 yards and 0.5 touchdowns but have only recovered one fumble in last four games.
• Week 16 - at Detroit: Allowing 151 yards, one touchdown and 5.1 yards per carry since Week 5. Defensive tackles Shaun Cody and Shaun Rogers should be back in the fold at this point, which will improve their numbers down the stretch.

Chester Taylor, Minnesota Vikings: 917 offensive yards, two touchdowns. A mid rounder in many leagues, Taylor has amply rewarded owners. A pass-catching threat, Taylor leads the Vikings in receptions with 32 on the year. As anemic as the passing game has been, Taylor is the lone offensive spark. Aside from a tough matchup in Week 13, there are good points to be had after that.

• Week 13 - at Chicago: No rushing scores allowed since Week 5 but run defense gashed in last two games for 291 total yards and 5.9 rushing average.
• Week 14 - at Detroit: Allowing 151 yards, one touchdown and 5.1 yards per carry since Week 5. Defensive tackles Shaun Cody and Shaun Rogers should be back in the fold at this point, which will improve their numbers down the stretch.
• Week 15 - New York Jets: Allowing 145 yards and just over one rushing score per game since Week 5. Only three forced fumbles in same time span.
• Week 16 - at Green Bay: Allowing 97 yards per game and 0.5 touchdowns.

RUNNING BACKS TO TRADE AWAY

The nominees below can be considered trade bait based on their recent production and upcoming schedule.

Warrick Dunn, Atlanta Falcons: 746 offensive yards, three touchdowns. At Washington, at Tampa Bay, Dallas, Carolina: A tough schedule in the next month doesn't leave fantasy owners salivating. Sure, Dunn could surprise, but with injuries along the offensive line it may be best to part ways now.

Reuben Droughns, Cleveland Browns: 509 offensive yards, two touchdowns. Kansas City, at Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, Tampa Bay. A dismal offensive line and a tough schedule against the run doesn't bode well for Droughns during your fantasy playoffs.

Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: 629 offensive yards, six touchdowns. Baltimore, Oakland, at Indianapolis, at Denver. An offensive line that has more holes than a swiss cheese block doesn't offer a promising outlook for fantasy owners. 

WIDE RECEIVERS TO ACQUIRE

This group is a little easier to play with. Fantasy teams often start just one quarterback, making them precious. The big point gainers are usually running backs, so no one wants to let go of a stud. When it comes to wide receivers, the well is pretty deep. A receiver, even a stud, can disappear for stretches, while unknowns can erupt from nowhere. This year is proof to that as much as any. The downside is lack of touches for a receiver, they may only get a few looks per game, and your points have to come from those limited opportunities.

Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers: 50 receptions, 580 receiving yards, three touchdowns. Rookie standout Greg Jennings may be “The Guy” of the future, but Driver is still a Brett Favre favorite. He is simply clutch. His schedule down the stretch is also nice.

• Week 13 - New York Jets: Allowing 10 receptions, 102 yards and one touchdown per game to the position since Week 5.
• Week 14 - at San Francisco: Allowing 10.3 receptions, 128 yards and just less than one touchdown per game to the position since Week 5.
• Week 15 - Detroit: Allowing 11 receptions, 132 yards and just less than one touchdown per game to the position since Week 5.
• Week 16 - Minnesota: Allowing 11.8 receptions, 154 yards and one touchdown per game to the position since Week 5.

Terry Glenn, Dallas Cowboys: 36 receptions, 456 yards, four touchdowns. A new quarterback injected some offensive life back into the ‘Boys when he started. So far the attention seems to have swung to Glenn's battery mate, Terrell Owens, but Glenn has the surer hands, and his schedule features some teams that have trouble with the position.

• Week 13 - at New York Giants: Allowing 9.5 receptions, 107 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks.
• Week 14 - New Orleans: Allowing nine receptions, 133 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks.
• Week 15 - at Atlanta: Allowing 13.5 receptions, 231 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks.
• Week 16 - Philadelphia: Allowing 7.5 receptions, 102 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks.

Joe Horn, New Orleans Saints: 30 receptions, 507 yards, three touchdowns. Rookie Marques Colston is getting much of the attention, but Horn is the one who can reap the rewards of that. By extension, Horn's owners could be happy, too.

• Week 13 - San Francisco: Allowing 10.3 receptions, 127 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks.
• Week 14 - at Dallas: Allowing 10.3 receptions, 129 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game to the position since Week 5.
• Week 15 - Washington: Allowing 13 receptions, 181 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks.
• Week 16 - at New York Giants: Allowing 9.5 receptions, 107 yards and just 0.5 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks.

WIDE RECEIVERS TO TRADE AWAY

Marquee names headline this group, but due to upcoming schedule or production thus far, they've most likely peaked and may not get better before they get worse.

• Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: 40 receptions, 483 yards, two touchdowns. Baltimore, Oakland, at Indianapolis, at Denver. A tough schedule, a struggling quarterback, an offensive line in shambles and more frustration than a lame duck congress, Johnson's value has to be in question for fantasy owners.
• Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers: 41 receptions, 586 yards, five touchdowns. Tampa Bay, Cleveland, at Carolina, Baltimore. Much like Johnson, frustration may be the biggest concern here, as well as a struggling quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger.

As you near the last turn of the NFL season - just a few short weeks away! - jockeying for playoff spots will get fierce. Make sure to position yourself well.

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Kenneth Humphrey

Ken Humphrey has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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