Strategy: Information Overload

November 2, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey and Cory J. Bonini
Edited by Ryan Dodson

We live in a society with instant access to information. Every year another site pops up promising the latest and greatest in fantasy insight. Or, a major media outlet notices the sheer number of fantasy players out there and decides to take a piece of the pie.

How do you know who knows what? Are these people qualified to predict fantasy studs and duds?

KFFL has the qualifications. In addition to the number of championship trophies, fantasy and news analysis is all they do. There's no coverage of current events, no stock market observations or political commentary. Football analysis - that's our forte. In this article, we'll offer some tips to help filter out the avalanche of data coming at you 24 hours a day.

Riding Your Studs is a Marathon, Not a Sprint

There is a reason someone has earned the status of stud. They produce. Some weeks are better than others, obviously, but for the most part they are reliable.

A number of owners want immediate results, but falling prey to this mindset becomes like trying to time the stock market. You may win on occasion, but overall, you lose. This kind of owner, if they don't see someone like Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning putting up huge numbers out of the gate, they get a little crazy. After all, they drafted him as their first quarterback and a few even took him very high. If an owner pulled the trigger and traded him away early, you can bet they are regretting that decision. Manning's history is one of production, regardless of the team around him.

The slow start to stud running backs during the current season is a testament to this. If you started slow with Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson, you were surely smiling after his four-touchdown outburst in Week 8 play.

Bottom line: If you possess a stud on your roster, you play him. Period. Just like then-New York Jets head coach Herman Edwards preached: "You play to win the game," KFFL preaches to not bench your studs. That player, more often than not, is more likely to award you points than whoever is behind him on the bench.

Understand Your Stats

Mark Twain made famous the quote about "lies, damned lies and statistics." This bears relevancy to the fantasy world as well. However, it is important that you correctly decipher the numbers that lie before you as they pertain to matchups.

The common perception is that the Baltimore Ravens have an obstinate defense across the board, but a close look reveals their weakness to be the secondary. However, that is like saying Scarlett Johansson isn't as pretty as Jessica Alba - a matter of opinion. The difference between the Ravens' run defense and pass defense through the first seven weeks was the matter of fourth place to seventh place, respectively.

Naturally, one would think that the team can't be exploited through the air too easily. Apparently New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees didn't receive the memo. In Week 8, Brees threw for 383 yards and three scores against this vaunted defense. Was this an aberration of sorts? Perhaps.

A better example of statistics being as honest as a Washington lobbyist is what opposing offenses have done to the Indianapolis Colts this season. The Colts, through eight weeks, own the league's top pass defense against the wide receiver position by allowing just 105 receiving yards per game. Sounds pretty gnarly, huh? "I bet Jason David, Nick Harper and the rest of the defensive backfield is enjoying great success by shutting down enemy wideouts." Not so fast, Mr. Pigskin Prognosticator. The Colts are not being thrown against, and it has zero to do with a ghoulish secondary. It has everything, however, to do with the team allowing 150 yards per game rushing to opposing running backs, on a per-game basis, this season.

Sometimes statistics tell white lies. Well, it is fairer to say they don't always show the full picture, sometimes manipulating along the way. Experienced fantasy owners put on their Sherlock Holmes getup, know where to look and are able to see through this tomfoolery.

Play the Injury Game

This one bites owners week in and week out. The running back they were counting on to lead the way is listed as "questionable" and at game-time is pulled to rest, leaving a gaping hole in their lineup.

You have to put on your coaching hat in order to have a chance of correctly assessing a player's status. First, determine what his injury is. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick with a hamstring strain is affected significantly more than Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Byron Leftwich, whose game is not based on any movement whatsoever.

Second, determine risk versus reward factor. Is it a non-conference game? On grass or in a dome? Players are more likely to suck it up when facing division rivals, because those are the losses that can really screw up seeding. Coaches are more likely to protect players when there is risk of further damage.

Third, determine the history of injuries. Certain players earn a reputation as warriors due to their willingness to play with pain.

Lastly, determine the importance of the game to the overall schedule. While players like to say that in a 16-game stretch every game is more important than the last, it simply isn't true. For proof, look no farther than the late December games. Each year there is a team that sits a number of starters, because they have already been locked in or locked out of the playoffs.

This may be a little early, but let's follow the tracks to where they lead. If you have a player whose team has clinched, and he's listed as questionable, it's a good bet he sees very little time. Conversely, if your player's team is on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth, the likelihood of him playing is much greater.

Look, predicting success for your team based off the production of National Football League players is not like a proven mathematical formula, otherwise it would be called... math. Any number of factors can creep in and change things.

Not all your playing decisions will be as easy as the example above. This report is designed to remind you of some fundamental tenets of fantasy football. For the novice players, especially, these tenets are invaluable guides when setting the gameday roster.

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Kenneth Humphrey

Ken Humphrey has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

Cory J. Bonini

Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

Follow him on Twitter @CoryKFFL

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