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IDP: Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 9
November 2, 2006
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DEFENSIVE LINEMEN – STRONG PLAYS Jamal Williams, San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns The big defensive tackle is one of the reasons why the Chargers have one of the top defensive lines and defenses in the league. With the team missing some key players in the next few weeks (for example, All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman), Williams will be one of the players needed to step up. He has been playing at an average level for the past four weeks, averaging 5.3 tackles and 0.3 sacks per game. Williams will have a much easier time this week as the Browns offense is allowing 24 tackles, 2.67 sacks and 0.67 fumble recoveries to the position per game. Thus, Williams comes recommended as a strong play, although he is a weak No. 2 or No. 3 defensive lineman. Brett Keisel, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos Keisel has been the top fantasy linemen for the Steelers over the past four weeks, averaging four tackles and 0.3 sacks per game. Those aren’t great numbers, but this week he will have a great chance to improve on them as the Broncos like to run the ball. They are allowing 24 tackles, 1.1 sacks and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game to the position. With those kinds of numbers, expect the Steelers front four to have a big week and Keisel should be a part of that. He is listed as a strong play as a No. 2 or No. 3 defensive lineman. Raheem Brock, Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots The Colts Week 9 match-up with the Patriots has all the potential to be one of the best games of the season. The Patriots will be using a makeshift offensive line that has performed well in recent weeks; however, it will be tough for them to contain the Colts strong defensive front. Brock has been one benefiting from double-teams sent at defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. He is averaging 5.67 tackles and 0.33 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks (three games). With the Patriots allowing 23 tackles, two sacks and 0.33 fumble recoveries per game to the position over the past four weeks (three games); Brock should be considered a strong play as a No. 3 defensive lineman. DEFENSIVE LINEMEN – WEAK PLAYS Jason Taylor, Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears Taylor has been a standout on one of the most disappointing teams this season. Over the past four weeks (three games), he is averaging 8.67 tackles and 1.33 sacks per game. Those are outstanding numbers but it will be difficult for him to reproduce those numbers against an offense that is allowing only 16 tackles, 0.8 sacks, 0.67 fumble recoveries and 0.33 interceptions per game to the position. Because of that, Taylor comes recommended as a No. 1 defensive lineman this week, however, he is a weak a play. Tommy Kelly, Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks Surprisingly, the Raiders are on a two-game winning streak, and it has come largely from their defense. Last week, the defense scored the two touchdowns in the team’s 20-13 win over the Steelers. Kelly has been averaging 5.8 tackles and 0.4 sacks per game over the past four weeks. The Seahawks are allowing just 12 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 0.67 fumble recoveries and 0.33 interceptions to the position. With a match-up like that, Kelly should be viewed as a weak play, although, he is still a No. 1 or No. 2 defensive lineman. Vonnie Holliday, Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears Holliday is the second Dolphins player on this list, and he will have just as much difficulty playing against the Bears as Taylor will. Over the past four weeks (three games), Holliday is averaging five tackles and 0.33 sacks per game. As stated above, the Bears have been tough on this position in only allowing 16 tackles, 0.8 sacks, 0.67 fumble recoveries and 0.33 interceptions per game. Like Taylor, Holliday should be seen as a weak play this week as only a No. 3 or injury replacement at the position. LINEBACKERS – STRONG PLAYS Scott Fujita, New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fujita and the Saints hit a bump in the road last week; however, they are still a notch above the Buccaneers and should be in a position to do well this week. With Buccaneers quarterback Bruce Gradkowski not making many throws down the field, and the Buccaneers offensive line the definition of porous, Fujita should have plenty of opportunities to make plays. Over the past four weeks (three games), Fujita is averaging 11 tackles, 0.67 sacks and 0.33 interceptions per game. The Buccaneers are allowing 30 tackles and 0.5 sacks per game over the past four weeks. With those kinds of numbers being allowed, Fujita is a strong play as a No. 1 linebacker this week. Boss Bailey, Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons With Falcons quarterback Michael Vick actually throwing the ball well, in addition to running it should mean a big day for the Lions linebackers. Vick’s favorite target is tight end Alge Crumpler, which should put Bailey in a good position to make plays. Over the past four weeks (three games), Bailey is averaging 9.33 tackles per game. The Falcons are allowing 26 tackles, 0.67 sacks and 0.33 interceptions per game to the position. Combine those two sets of numbers and Bailey comes recommended as a strong play as a No. 1 linebacker. Kawika Mitchell, Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams If the Rams had a top-15 defense, they would probably be one of the top teams in the league. However, they don’t and their offense is being forced to carry the team. This bodes well for Mitchell, who is averaging 5.5 tackles and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game in four weeks, to have a big game this week. The Rams are giving up 30 tackles, 1.67 sacks, 0.33 fumble recoveries and 0.33 interceptions per game over the past four weeks (three games). Mitchell should be seen as a strong play this week and is considered a No. 2 linebacker. LINEBACKERS – WEAK PLAYS A.J. Hawk, Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills The Packers first-round draft pick has really come on in the past four weeks (three games). Over that period, he has been a tackling machine, averaging 12 tackles and 0.33 sacks per game. However, it will be tough for him to keep pace with those numbers this week as the Bills are only allowing 25 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 0.67 fumble recoveries and 0.33 interceptions to the position over the past four weeks (three games). Hawk comes recommended as a No. 2 linebacker; however, he is a weak play this week. David Thornton, Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars The former Indianapolis Colts linebacker will find it tough to get going against the second worst fantasy offense against the position. The Jaguars are only allowing 18 tackles, 0.5 sacks and 0.33 fumble recoveries to the position over the past four weeks (three games). Part of that comes from a passing game which emphasizes throwing the ball deep and to the outside, taking the ball away from the linebackers. Thornton is putting up solid numbers in his first season with the Titans. He is averaging 7.67 tackles per game over the past four weeks (three games). He is a weak play as a No. 2 linebacker. DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins It might be surprising to see Ware ranked so low this week, despite him averaging seven tackles, 0.6 sacks and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks. However, this is all about the match-up, as the Redskins are allowing only 22 tackles to the position over the past four weeks (three games). Those are striking numbers, especially if you had planned on starting Ware this week. He should be considered as no better than a No. 3 or injury-replacement linebacker, and a weak play at that. DEFENSIVE BACKS – STRONG PLAYS Carlos Rogers, Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Rogers has only played two games in the past four weeks, however, in those games he has averaged 7.5 tackles and 0.5 sacks per game. This week he will get his first shot at Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, and it could be a field day for Rogers. He is the No. 1 cornerback on the Redskins and will likely be covering wide receiver Terrell Owens all day so expect quite a few balls thrown his way. The Cowboys are allowing 33 tackles, 0.3 sacks and 1.5 interceptions to the position over the past four weeks. Pencil Rogers in as a No. 1 defensive back and a strong play this week. Juran Bolden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints The cornerback starting opposite Ronde Barber on the Buccaneers, he should get quite a few balls thrown his way as the Saints will try to avoid throwing to Barber. Bolden has performed well over the past four weeks, averaging 6.8 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game. The Saints have been allowing 30 tackles, 0.33 fumble recoveries, 1.33 interceptions and 0.67 defensive touchdowns to this position over the past four weeks (three games). With those numbers, consider Bolden a strong play as a No. 2 defensive back. Sammy Knight, Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams With both defenses largely non-existent the past four weeks, it would be logical to figure this game will be a shootout. This should benefit Knight, who is averaging 5.5 tackles per game over the past four weeks, as he should be in position to rack up tackles. The Rams might only be allowing 15 tackles per game to the position over the past four weeks (three games), however, it should be a high-scoring game, and there could be lots of opportunities to make plays. Knight is only a No. 3 or injury-replacement defensive back. However, he is a strong play. DEFENSIVE BACKS – WEAK PLAYS Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos Polamalu is one of the most versatile defensive backs in the league. He's able to come up and stuff the run or drop back and pick off passes, he has the uncanny ability to be where the ball is. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 8.3 tackles and 0.5 interceptions per game. That puts him up among the league leaders in fantasy value. However, the Broncos have been horrible throwing the ball, allowing only 23 tackles, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.5 interceptions per game to the position over the past four weeks. Thus, Polamalu is still ranked as a weak No. 1 or strong No. 2 defensive back, however, he is a weak play this week. Marlon McCree, San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns McCree made a heads-up play last week, picking up a fumble and then realizing no one had downed him, he rushed it back 79 yards for a touchdown. Over the past four weeks, the sixth-year defensive back is averaging four tackles, 0.3 sacks, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions. Those are solid numbers, although, against the Browns this week it will be tough for him to keep that up. The Browns are allowing 22 tackles, 0.33 sacks and 1.33 interceptions per game over the past four weeks (three games). Because of that, consider McCree a weak play as a No. 2 defensive back this week. Chris Hope, Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars The former Pittsburgh Steelers safety is definitely not having the same kind of team success he had last season, and nor is he having the same kind of personal success. Over the past four weeks (three games), he is averaging seven tackles, 0.33 fumble recoveries and 0.67 interceptions per game. In that same time period, the Jaguars are allowing 29 tackles and 0.33 fumble recoveries per game to the position. Something has to give this week, and that will most likely be Hope. Play him as a weak play as your No. 3 defensive back this week. Check out these other reports....
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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies. Other reports you'll enjoy.... |
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