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Strategy: Defensive Teams and Fantasy Football

October 26, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Ryan Dodson and Cory J. Bonini

In the NFL, defenses are ranked primarily on how they limit opposing offenses to gains like yardage, third-down conversions or points. In the fantasy world, defenses matter the most in what they can do to opposing offenses. Sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries and, best of all, touchdowns. Touchdowns are what separate defensive team studs from others. A number of leagues also award bonus points for limiting offensive scoring.

In this report, we'll take a look three classes of defense:

Highly drafted defenses that are living up to the billing
Low or non-drafted defenses that have turned in surprising numbers
Highly touted defenses that have disappointed

BUSINESS AS USUAL

These teams were drafted high and rewarding owners with production fairly commensurate to their selection spot. Sadly, this class is smaller than in most years.

Chicago Bears - "They are who we thought they were." Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green's infamous quote says it all. Across the board, the Bears were drafted as the first defensive team, usually somewhere around the sixth round in 12-team leagues. They've racked up two defensive touchdowns, seven interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries and 19 sacks. The sacks have come every week, providing a stable production of points. Additionally, opponents are being held to an average of nine points per game, and that figure includes the 23 points from that wacky Arizona game in Week 6. If you own the Bears, keep them as a start every week. With divisional rivals like Detroit and Green Bay, who they've massacred once already, along San Francisco as well as Miami on tap, things look very good.

Baltimore Ravens - Don't be fooled by the 414 offensive yards Baltimore allowed to Carolina in Week 6. This defense is a juggernaut. Though they have only one defensive touchdown, they are tied for first in interceptions with 11, have 19 sacks and six fumble recoveries. They are third best in the league with only 1,512 offensive yards allowed, a number leveraged upward by the aforementioned Carolina game. They are a must-start the rest of the way after being off in Week 7.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Drafted on average as the third defense, the Steelers are not performing as well, although they should not be categorized as a dud. They have two defensive touchdowns, 11 interceptions and 16 sacks. Unfortunately they also have just one fumble recovery, allowing 21 points and 306 yards per game. Bear in mind that they still have Cleveland on the docket twice, as well as Oakland and Tampa Bay. With Pittsburgh, watch your match-ups and don't hesitate to bring in another team for a one-week fill. However, this is only if you have roster room to keep the Steelers while you do so.

SURPRISE PERFORMERS

These are teams that went low or undrafted in most leagues and are outperforming their selection spot. However, take note that performing to NFL standards and fantasy standards are two different beasts, so two of these teams come with caveat emptor stickers on the window.

Minnesota Vikings - In Vikingland, fans are ecstatic over the defensive turnaround. However, this is depreciated by worry over new defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin getting a promotion after the season. Those fans are always looking for the negative. The positive is so much better: four defensive touchdowns, twice as many as the next team; 15 sacks; three fumble recoveries and seven interceptions. Better yet, games still to be played against teams giving up points to opposing defenses, like San Francisco, Green Bay (twice), Miami, Arizona, Detroit and the New York Jets. This team underwent a makeover in the offseason, and it all starts on defense. With the Bye now done, start the "Men in Purple" every week.

Arizona Cardinals - Despite a 1-6 record, and some recent abysmal showings, this Cards defense shows up to play. They lead the league in fumble recoveries with 11. Combine that with 17 sacks, nine interceptions, upcoming games against Green Bay, Detroit and San Francisco; this is a defense that can give some surprise fantasy points.

Denver Broncos - The Broncos' defense presents a problem for prospective owners. Sure they've given up a league-low 44 points to opposing teams. That's fine if you get bonus points from limiting other teams' point totals. However, in the more common categories by which defenses are measured - interceptions, fumble recoveries and sacks - they really aren't outstanding. They have forced just 10 combined turnovers in six games and racked up a respectable 15 sacks. All three categories are just mid-pack in the NFL. No one really expected this defense to suppress other teams in the way they have, but in the fantasy realm, they are just not productive or consistent enough. Denver is a pick 'em defense, with games against Oakland and Arizona, but they are not strong enough to be an every-week play.

San Diego Chargers - Here's another defense that is performing beyond expectations according to NFL standards, yet present a quandary for fantasy owners. They are second in the league with 23 sacks. However they are mid-pack or below in the categories of interceptions (seven), fumble recoveries (four) and defensive touchdowns (zero). Additionally, losing linebackers Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips for varying amounts of time due to varying reasons will hurt them. As well, defensive end Igor Olshansky underwent arthroscopic knee surgery and is projected to be out until mid-November. These factors, combined with low production in key fantasy categories, make San Diego a match-up play and not a weekly start.

Green Bay Packers - Last year the Pack enjoyed an inflated passing defense rank, simply because opposing offenses didn't need to throw the ball against them. They could pummel the Packers with a ground game and win that way. This year things are looking a little more balanced. The "Green and Gold" has logged 18 sacks in six games. Add onto that: two defensive touchdowns, six interceptions and four fumble recoveries. While only the accumulated sacks place the Pack in the top half of the league, they also have favorable match-ups coming down the pike against Arizona, Buffalo, New York Jets, San Francisco and Detroit. All these teams rank near or below average in ball protection. It is likely the Packers are available on waivers in your league. Use them wisely when the match-up presents an opportunity for a few freebie points.

Additional teams worth noting:

Kansas City Chiefs - Five interceptions, six fumble recoveries, 15 sacks

Atlanta Falcons - One defensive touchdown, eight interceptions, six fumble recoveries, 15 sacks

Cincinnati Bengals - Nine interceptions, five fumble recoveries, 15 sacks

SURPRISE NON-PERFORMERS

Now comes the classification to make owners wince. It means you wasted a draft pick and must either live with the performance (lack thereof) or try to fill the hole with another team. Certain teams, such as Tampa Bay, saved themselves from this label by simple virtue of their Week 7 performance.

New York Giants - New York deserves some special analysis here. Their season thus far, from a fantasy defense standpoint, has been rather Jekyll and Hyde. They could be a strong start or merely a fill-in. With nine interceptions, they have a respectable number. However, four of those came against Dallas in Week 7. Two fumble recoveries tie them for second worst in the league. At 18 sacks, they are in the top half of the league, until you realize 13 of those sacks came against Atlanta and Dallas in the last two weeks. So are they good or bad? What's the outlook here?

Owners of the Giants' defense should be able to make hay when they go against teams like Houston, Tennessee, Dallas and even Philadelphia. All of these teams are giving up approximately two turnovers and two sacks per game, plus or minus a decimal. This advice is not without risk though, as linebacker LaVar Arrington is now out for the season with a ruptured Achilles' tendon. If you believe he was an impact player, perhaps the Giants defense is better left as a fill-in. If you noted that his production was nothing special in the first six games, the Giants could be a solid play.

Washington Redskins - You can insert the standard Redskins' free-agent spending joke here, because that's what the defense has really become. They are bottom five in sacks (11) and interceptions (two). They have three fumble recoveries, which keeps them out of the bottom five, but just barely. We could go on and profile upcoming opponents' tendency to limit turnovers and sacks, but you get the idea. Leave Washington off your roster unless you absolutely have no other option.

Carolina Panthers - Defensive end Julius Peppers may be the most athletically gifted player at his position, but even he is having trouble lifting the Panthers' defense. They are in the bottom half of the league for interceptions (six), fumble recoveries (three) and sacks (15). Bear in mind that one-third of their sack total came in Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings. While none of these stats are tooth-gnashing bad, they are made worse by the fact that Carolina was drafted as the second defensive team in most leagues. They get a break in Week 8 when Dallas visits town. The Cowboys are having troubles at the quarterback position, on full display during Week 7 before national audience, and these issues lead to interceptions and sacks. After the Dallas game, don't look for the Panthers to get much help from their opponents. Research the match-ups, but they may not be worth holding on your roster.

Indianapolis Colts - During August the Colts were a trendy draft pick, going as the fifth defense on average. However, that's where it started downhill. To date they have just 10 total turnovers and 10 sacks. These are all insufficient numbers for a drafted defense. The Colts don't get any help over the next couple of games against Denver and New England. Both teams are not giving up much to defenses. However, the four games after that feature teams allowing a lot of sacks or with ball protection problems. If you have the Colts, you may want to pick up another defense for Weeks 8 and 9.

Seattle Seahawks - A brief glimpse at the stat line for Seattle shows 20 sacks on the year. This may have you wondering why they're in the underperforming class. Well, half of their sack total came in just two games, against St. Louis and Minnesota. That, added onto just five interceptions and four fumble recoveries, paints a picture of failed expectations. Seattle was the sixth drafted defense on average but is being shown up by a number of lesser teams. There is still time for the team to produce some respectable fantasy numbers with games remaining against Oakland, San Francisco (twice), Green Bay and Arizona.

Additional teams worth noting:

Buffalo Bills - Five interceptions, two fumble recoveries, 20 sacks

Miami Dolphins - Three interceptions, five fumble recoveries, 17 sacks

New England Patriots - Four interceptions, five fumble recoveries, 14 sacks

Jacksonville Jaguars - Nine interceptions, two fumble recoveries, 13 sacks

With each passing season the advice for managing fantasy defenses has been to play the match-up game. Yet this year, more than any other this decade, has left very few sure things atop the heap; meaning the casual fantasy owner can't just ride out his defense through the year. The match-up game, especially when it comes to defense, requires a new skill set in ferreting out stats. Fortunately many good one-week plays can be found sitting on the waiver wire since team defenses are a creature of reputation, and less savvy owners might ignore a traditionally poor defense such as Arizona.

So sharpen your stat pencil, figure out what kind of points you need next week from your defense and go find the team providing those points on a consistent basis.