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IDP: Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 7
October 19, 2006
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - STRONG PLAYSTy Warren, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills The big nose tackle will be coming off a Bye week and facing the division-rival Bills. With the bad weather from last weekend carrying into this weekend's tilt (showers are being predicted), it looks to be a ground battle between the two teams, and that should provide plenty of opportunities for Warren to rack up tackles. In the past four weeks (three games), Warren is averaging 4.33 tackles, 0.33 sacks and 0.33 fumble recoveries. Also helping him this week will be going up against a Bills defense that has allowed the most fantasy points overall to the position in the last four weeks. They are allowing opposing defensive linemen to average 23 tackles, 2.6 sacks, 0.8 fumble recoveries and 0.3 interceptions per game. Everything points to Warren having a big week, as such, he should be viewed as a strong play as a No. 1 defensive lineman. Warren Sapp, Oakland Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals Despite going through "the worst time of his life" in Oakland this season, Sapp should have a smile on his face as he is up against a Cardinals team that is reeling from a monumental collapse last week against the Bears. The Cardinals will have a new offensive coordinator this week, so it will be harder to predict how their offense will be to this position, but you can't argue with the numbers they have allowed opposing lineman the past four weeks (17 tackles, 1.9 sacks and 0.5 fumble recoveries per game). Over the past four weeks (three games), Sapp is averaging 6.33 tackles per game. Those aren't great numbers but this is a week to play the match-up. Consider Sapp a strong play as a weak No. 2 or solid No. 3 defensive lineman. Pat Williams, Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks The final strong play listed here makes up one part of the Williams tandem at defensive tackle for the Vikings. The heavier of the two (at 317, he outweighs his counterpart, defensive tackle Kevin Williams, by 13 pounds), Pat Williams is averaging 2.67 tackles and 0.33 sacks per game over the past four weeks (three games). This week he will be up against an offense that is allowing 21 tackles, 2.33 sacks, 0.33 fumble recoveries and 0.33 interceptions per game over the past four weeks (three games). Thus, Williams should be considered a strong play as a No. 3 defensive lineman. DEFENSIVE LINEMEN - WEAK PLAYSJustin Smith, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers Smith has been a fantasy stud for the Bengals so far this season, averaging 10 tackles and 0.67 sacks per game over the past four weeks (three games). The sixth-year University of Missouri alum is on pace to have a career year, as he is only 3.5 sacks shy of his career high (8.5), and he is on pace to destroy his career high in tackles by almost 20. However, the points could come a bit tougher for Smith this week as he is against a defense which is allowing only 17 tackles, 0.5 sacks and 0.8 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks. Thus, while he is considered a lower-tiered No. 1 defensive lineman this week, he is also a weak play. Jared Allen, Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers Last week was another embarrassing loss for the Chiefs as they went down to the Steelers 45-7. It doesn't figure to get much better this week as they are up against one of the top teams in the NFL. The 6-foot-6, 270-pound defensive lineman has been one of the bright spots on the team, as he is averaging 4.67 tackles, 0.33 sacks and 0.33 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks (three games.) Combine him with defensive tackle Tamba Hali, and the Chiefs have half of a solid, young defensive line. That line will be put to the test this week. They will be up against an offense which is allowing only 21 tackles and 0.67 sacks to the position per game over the past four weeks (three games). It will be tough for Allen to put up good numbers this week, and thus he should be viewed as a weak play as a No. 2 defensive lineman. Simeon Rice, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles The former defensive rookie of the year is off to a poor start this season (at least by his standards,) as he is averaging only 3.33 tackles and 0.33 sacks per game over the past four weeks (three games.) Rice will also find it tougher to make plays with the loss of defensive tackle Anthony McFarland to the Colts at the trading deadline. Making matters even worse is he will be up against an offense allowing just 15 tackles and 1.8 sacks to the position per game. As such, Rice comes recommended as only a No. 3 defensive lineman this week and a weak play. LINEBACKERS - STRONG PLAYSKawika Mitchell, Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers This match-up fits all the criteria for a strong IDP play: a great offense against the position, a weak defensive that is giving up a lot of points and a linebacker that should be right in the middle of it. Over the past four weeks (three games), Mitchell has averaged 9.33 tackles, 0.33 sacks and 0.33 fumble recoveries per game. He is up against an offense that has been allowing 29 tackles, 0.67 sacks and 0.33 interceptions per game over the past four weeks (three games). Because of all that, Mitchell comes recommended as a strong play as a solid No. 1 linebacker. Ian Gold, Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns Cleveland's tight ends have gained the third-highest amount of fantasy points (10.7 per game) over the past four weeks (three games.) Although they are in the lower half of the league for rushing attempts with 24 per game, Gold comes recommended as a strong play because he will likely be covering the tight ends on passing downs. Over the past four weeks (three games,) Gold is averaging 7.67 tackles per game. With the Browns giving up 24 tackles, 1.33 sacks, 0.33 fumble recoveries, 0.33 safeties and 0.33 touchdowns to the position over the past four weeks (three games). Because of this, Gold should be viewed as a strong play as a weak No. 1 or No. 2 linebacker. Lemar Marshall, Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts Marshall comes recommended largely because of a good match-up this week. The Colts are a high-passing offense (they rank 10th in attempts per game,) which should put Marshall in position to pick up more tackles, as he should be left in coverage a lot of the time. Over the past four weeks Marshall has been a tackling machine, averaging 7.8 tackles and 0.1 sacks per game. The Colts offense is allowing opposing linebackers to average 33 tackles and 0.33 fumble recoveries per game over the past four weeks (three games.) Marshall comes recommended as a strong play as a mid-tier No. 2 linebacker. LINEBACKERS - WEAK PLAYSMichael Boley, Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers For Boley this week, his status is all about the match-up. He is averaging 8.33 tackles and 0.33 interceptions per game, which puts him second of the Falcons linebackers for fantasy points per game. However, the Steelers are allowing 30 tackles, and just 0.5 sacks and 0.67 fumble recoveries to the position per game over the past four weeks (three games.) Because of the poor match-up, Boley still should be played as a mid-tier No. 1 linebacker this week; however, he is a weak play. Gary Brackett, Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Redskins Brackett and the Colts will travel to Washington hoping to maintain their perfect start to the season, and while the Redskins haven't played great recently, they haven't been a linebacker's best friend. Over the past four weeks (three games,) Brackett is averaging 14 tackles per game, but it will be hard for him to reach those numbers against an offense allowing only 19 tackles and 0.3 fumble recoveries per game to the position. It is hard to see Brackett accounting for 74 percent of the Colts tackles at the linebacker position next week. Brackett can still be played as a No. 1 linebacker; however, he is a weak play this week. Channing Crowder, Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Crowder and fellow linebacker Zach Thomas have been beasts at the linebacker position this season, with both among the league leaders in fantasy points at the position. Crowder is lining up at the weakside linebacker position for the Dolphins and is averaging 12 tackles per game (a pace that should far exceed the total from his rookie year last season.) However, this week he is against a Packers defense that does not utilize the tight ends or running backs in the passing game as much. They are also throwing the ball the most in the league (41 attempts per game,) so Crowder could find himself away from the ball and unable to make plays. The Packers are allowing only 24 tackles and 0.33 fumble recoveries per game to the position over the past four weeks (three games.) Crowder is still a No. 2 linebacker this week, however, consider him a weak play. DEFENSIVE BACKS - STRONG PLAYSAntoine Bethea, Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Redskins Bethea has stepped into a starting role with the Colts this year in only his first professional season. With both free safety Bob Sanders (leg) missing time this season, it has seen Bethea and strong safety Mike Doss move into the lineup, and both should remain in the starting lineup this week. Even if Sanders does return, one only has to look at the stats to see why Bethea comes recommended this week. Over the past four weeks (three games,) he is averaging 11 tackles per game. Combine that with a Redskins offense that is allowing 31 tackles, 0.67 fumble recoveries and 0.67 interceptions to the position over the past four weeks, and Bethea should be viewed as a strong play as your No. 1 defensive back this week. Marquand Manuel, Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins One would think with Dolphins quarterback Joey Harrington starting now, the Dolphins would be less likely to throw. However, that hasn't been the case as the team has allowed the second most fantasy points (209) to the position over the past four weeks (three games.) With the running game non-existent, Harrington has been forced to throw more and that should benefit Manuel this week. Over the past four weeks (three games,) Manuel is averaging 4.67 tackles and 0.33 interceptions per game. He has also scored one touchdown in that time. This week, he is facing a Dolphins offense which is allowing 35 tackles, 0.3 sacks, 0.3 fumble recoveries and 0.8 interceptions per game. Thus, Manuel should be used as a strong play as a No. 1 defensive back this week. Quentin Jammer, San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Last week the Chiefs were down early in the game and forced to start throwing the ball. That same thing could happen this week when they face one of the best teams in all of football, the Chargers. If it does, expect Jammer to get a lot of work as the Chiefs try to make up ground throw the air. Over the past four weeks (three games,) Jammer is averaging 4.33 tackles and 0.33 interceptions per game. In that same period, the Chiefs are allowing 25 tackles, 0.33 sacks, 0.33 fumble recoveries and 0.67 interceptions per game to the position. All of this points to what could be a huge week for the Chargers defense, and as a part of that, Jammer comes recommended as a strong play that should be used as a top-tier No. 2 defensive back. DEFENSIVE BACKS - WEAK PLAYSRonde Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles The defensive half of the Barber twins will be in tough against the Eagles this week. The Eagles offense currently ranks second from the bottom in fantasy points allowed per game to the position over the past four weeks at 31. They are allowing just 21 tackles and 0.4 sacks to the position over the past four weeks. Barber is also the top cornerback on the Buccaneers, so if the Eagles are throwing the ball lots, don't expect them to look his way as much. A lot of the Eagles passing also goes to the running backs and tight ends, positions typically not covered by cornerbacks. Despite the poor match-up, Barber, who is averaging 10 tackles per game over the past four weeks (three games,) should still be viewed as a No. 1 defensive back, although he is a weak play this week. Donovin Darius, Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans The hard-hitting safety has been an integral part of a Jacksonville defense that is among the best in the league. Over the past four weeks (three games,) Darius is averaging seven tackles per game. This week he is up against a Texans offense which has been tough on opposing defensive backs. They are allowing among the lowest tackles per game at 20, and are also allowing only 0.33 sacks, 0.33 fumble recoveries and one interception per game. The Jaguars have the potential to shutout the Texans this week. However, because of the poor match-up, Darius comes recommended as a weak play as a mid-tier No. 2 defensive back. Brian Dawkins, Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dawkins' numbers are down this year as he has yet to register a sack and only has one pass defensed, while his tackles are on pace to finish just below his 2005 total. However, he is still the leader among the Eagles secondary and is averaging 6.3 tackles and 0.3 interceptions per game over the past four weeks. The Buccaneers got their first win last week, but quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is still at quarterback, and the team is not expected to throw as much with him. At least they won't throw downfield, which is where Dawkins usually lurks. Over the past four weeks (three games), the Buccaneers are allowing 27 tackles and 0.67 interceptions to the position. Consider Dawkins a weak play as a No. 3 or Bye-week replacement this week. Check out these other reports....
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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies. Other reports you'll enjoy.... |
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