Fantasy Football Strategy

Strategy: To Trade or Not to Trade: WRs

October 19, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Last week the strategy report dealt with running backs taken in the first and second round of your draft. We assessed their performance to date, took a look down the road at upcoming games and gave a trade recommendation. According to KFFL statistics the article was a hit, so we'll ride that wagon a little further with a similar report this week.

In this article, we will focus on the wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds of most fantasy drafts, review their year so far, and attempt to determine a trade position for each. As with the running back report, all trade recommendations are within the scope of single-year leagues, not keeper formats.

Without further ado, let's roll.

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald - What a nice way to open your season: nine catches for 133 yards. That was Fitzgerald's Week 1 game. Now he's out until November, at least, after injuring his right hamstring. His year-to-date looks like this: 25 receptions, 336 yards and two touchdowns in the five games he played. What's worse for owners? The next two weeks feature soft passing defenses in the Oakland Raiders and Green Bay Packers. These were the games where Fitzgerald should have made his hay. Instead, he'll be watching from sidelines. Week 9 brings the Cardinals' Bye.

Trade Assessment: It's tough to get fair value for an injured player. Some owners may simply choose to hold him and ride out the injury by swapping in waiver pickups for the next few weeks. If you're determined to trade him, his value will likely be highest after the Week 11 game against the Detroit Lions, who have allowed the most passing touchdowns and second most passing yards. Again, that is all depending on Fitzgerald's health.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison - The good news on Harrison is that he's on pace to log 102 catches for 1,414 yards. These will be his best totals since the 2002 NFL season. His current average of 13.8 yards per reception is a half-yard above his career average. Unfortunately, there is bad news. He is only projecting out to three lousy touchdowns at his current pace. That would be a career low.

Trade Assessment: Harrison has a Week 7 game against a Washington Redskins team that has allowed 10 total passing touchdowns in six games. If you need to trade Harrison, wait until after this game, because he faces Denver and New England. Denver has allowed just one passing score and New England just four. The rest of Harrison's year brings a coupe of other tough defenses in Dallas and Jacksonville. However, take note that the Colts go against Houston and Miami the last two weeks of the year, right during championship weeks.

St. Louis Rams wide receiver Torry Holt - Anyone who grabbed Holt as their first receiver is reaping the whirlwind. He has 37 catches, 526 yards and seven touchdowns, three more than the second-place finisher. He's on pace for 99 catches, 1,400-plus yards and 19 touchdowns. Holy smokes! Even better, his schedule holds contests against San Francisco, Arizona, Oakland and Washington - all teams who allow a lot of passing yards, passing touchdowns or both.

Trade Assessment: Don't go crazy here. Unless someone offers you an insane trade deal just ride Holt through the season. You likely won't regret it.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chad Johnson - On the contrary to Holt, there is Johnson. With his 24 receptions, 300 yards and one lonely touchdown, he does not even rank in the top 20 of receivers. A couple of rookies, some low or undrafted players and even a tight end have surpassed him. Games against Carolina, Atlanta, Baltimore (twice) and San Diego paint a pretty bleak outlook from a production standpoint. Wait, it gets worse. During your playoff weeks, Johnson has tilts in Denver and at home against Pittsburgh. Although the Steelers gave up four passing touchdowns in a Week 3 meeting with the Bengals, consider that a bit of an anomaly. They have only given up two other scores through the air, both to San Diego.

Trade Assessment: If you can get good value or shore up a weak area of your team, do it. Johnson is on pace for his lowest totals in receptions, touchdowns and yards per catch since his rookie year.

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Randy Moss - He plays when he wants to play. He just never informed owners before the season that this would be a "no-play” year. Moss is keeping Johnson from hitting rock bottom by occupying that space himself. He has 17 receptions, 222 yards and two touchdowns. This projects out to 54 catches for 710 yards and six scores. Even in 2004, when Moss saw no action in three full games while being effectively inactive in two others, he still racked up 767 yards and 13 touchdowns. How low the mighty have fallen. The Raiders have remaining divisional games against Denver, San Diego and Kansas City (twice), all defenses capable of containing the Oakland air attack - or lack thereof. Even supposed easy games against Arizona and Houston could present problems. That's how bad Oakland has been playing. In five games they have only managed four passing touchdowns; those came against lower-tier defenses in San Francisco and Cleveland.

Trade Assessment: Unload him if you can, but be aware that he has very little value, and set your expectations accordingly.

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Terrell Owens - Ah, what to say about Owens that hasn't already been said? He is second lowest among this receiver group with only 22 receptions for 277 yards. He does have four total scores, but that's a misleading stat. Three of those touchdowns came in Week 6 against Houston. Based on this, his year-end looks like 70 receptions, 886 yards and 13 touchdowns. Not counting last year's debacle in Philadelphia, these totals would be Owens' lowest since 1999. Upcoming opponents in his favor include Washington, Arizona, Detroit and Philadelphia, who is deceptively poor against the aerial attack. Although it should be noted that Owens did no damage against them in Week 5. Other games present some stout passing defenses in Carolina, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

Trade Assessment: Owens will carry trade value simply based on reputation and last week's production. With the New York Giants coming to town in Week 7, followed by Carolina, now might be the time to seek a trade partner.

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith - You've heard this stat, especially after Week 6: The Panthers have been undefeated since Smith started playing this year. He's making an early case for league MVP based on the way he has changed the offense in Carolina. However, no wide receiver since 1940 has won this honor. In the four games he has played, Smith has racked up 31 catches, 450 yards and two scores. At this pace he'll end up with 109 catches for 1,575 yards and eight touchdowns. Don't be surprised if he surpasses the touchdown total, though. The rest of the schedule doesn't give him much relief in the way of weak defenses, but he has shown before that he can twist even the toughest of defenses around his fingers. This is, of course, referring to his showing in Chicago during last year's playoff game.

Trade Assessment: The bottom line with Smith is that you have more to lose than gain by trading him away. Carolina's offense follows his routes and, unless he gets hurt, you can expect fantastic numbers.

There you go - the top seven receivers from the first two rounds of fantasy drafts this year. So far we have two blue chippers leading the way and three former studs turning in disappointing results. Trading studs can be tricky business since beauty truly is in the eye of the beholder. The purpose of this report is to provide objective assessment for trade triggers. Best of luck whether you trade away a stud like Holt or stay with Moss.