Fantasy Football Strategy

Strategy: To Trade or Not to Trade: RBs

October 12, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Ryan Dodson and Cory J. Bonini

"Welcome to my nightmare," goes the old Alice Cooper album title. A fantasy owner's nightmare is somewhat different than what Mr. Cooper referred to, but no less horrifying.

For many fantasy owners, not unlike real NFL owners, burning a first-round draft pick on a player who fails to show up week in and week out is enough to drive grown men - or women - into a fetal position. Making the decision to set loose your stud can be tooth-gnashing, garment-rending hard.

In this report, we'll take a look at running backs most likely to be drafted in the first round, their performance thus far and assign a trade outlook for each one.

San Diego Chargers Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson - Tomlinson went as one of the top three draft picks in nearly every league this year, and deservedly so. His 2005 totals of 1,462 yards, 20 touchdowns and 51 catches for 370 yards earned him that right. So far in 2006, he is not quite at that level. His per-rush average is 3.8 yards versus 4.3 from last year. He is on pace to hit 1,300-plus yards, 12 touchdowns and 76 receptions for 440 yards. Games yet to be played against weak run defenses like San Francisco, St. Louis, Cleveland, Oakland and Arizona could increase those projected totals.

Trade assessment: Only if someone offers you the farm.

Kansas City Chiefs Running Back Larry Johnson - The second component of the holy troika of fantasy football, Johnson has logged just two rushing touchdowns on the season. He added a receiving touchdown last week against the Arizona Cardinals before leaving the game with a neck injury. As of this writing, Johnson is listed as probable for the Week 6 tilt at Pittsburgh. On the year he has 331 rushing yards, 20 receptions for 268 yards and the three aforementioned scores. He is on pace for 1,324 yards, 80 catches, 1,072 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. With upcoming games against Miami, Cleveland and Oakland twice (once during a fantasy playoff week), his numbers look to be strong all year long. This is compounded with the fact head coach Herman Edwards loves to run the ball as much as possible.

Trade assessment: Make it the farm and the horses

Seattle Seahawks Running Back Shaun Alexander - Now comes the last of the trinity. Owners who took him with their first pick are probably fretting. Not only has he been injured, his production before the injury was nothing special. So far, he has only managed 187 yards on the season, a 2.9 yards-per-carry average, which is well off last year's mark of 5.1. On top of that, Alexander has not been a strong receiving threat the last few seasons. Currently he is slated to return to action for the Week 7 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, but considering how well they have been shutting down opposing runners, it may not be much of a welcome back party.

Trade assessment: Something seems to be a little off in Seattle, but Alexander's value right now is too low for a stud. Better to hang onto him and re-evaluate in a few weeks.

New York Giants Running Back Tiki Barber - After a career 2005 season in which he rushed for 1,860 yards, Barber is another stud slightly off his beam. He's only on track for 1,392 yards in 2006, although he is pacing 72 receptions and 592 yards. What's more disconcerting to owners is the zero scores Barber has seen. His schedule is filled with strong defensive teams, within and without his division, so anyone expecting him to match last year's performance might be a little disappointed.

Trade assessment: Now might be a good time to toss out some feelers, counting on his stud status to bring attention. Barber doesn't face a porous defense until Nov. 5 against the Houston Texans.

St. Louis Rams Running Back Steven Jackson - Jackson is rewarding owners who grabbed him as their first pick. His 465 yards ties him for first among running backs. As well, his 18 receptions for 184 yards shows he is becoming more integral to the offensive air attack. He is pacing 1,488 yards, although his touchdown totals are still low. His pace in the receiving game is a career high of 58 receptions for 589 yards. Jackson will not face an easy rushing defense until Nov. 26 in San Francisco.

Trade assessment: In Week 6, Jackson goes up against Seattle's No. 4 ranked rushing defense. After his Week 7 Bye, Jackson heads down to San Diego to face the No. 1 ranked rushing defense. If you need to shore up other positions, his value is highest right now. Don't wait until after sub-par performances against these two teams.

Cincinnati Bengals Running Back Rudi Johnson - Like Jackson, Rudi Johnson has made some owners happy so far. His 353 yards and four touchdowns have him on target for 1,412 yards with 16 scores. With just eight receptions for 46 yards, that part of his production is negligible, but he has never been a strong receiver. Johnson also has a tough schedule of run defenses ahead. Under current rankings, only the Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders and Indianapolis Colts are easy marks. However, they don't come into play until after Thanksgiving.

Trade assessment: If you must trade, he has the most value now, during his Bye. Otherwise it's onto a stretch of five games that feature three top 10 run defenses: Atlanta, Baltimore and San Diego. The other two games are not pushovers either, despite the ranking: Tampa Bay and Carolina.

Washington Redskins Running Back Clinton Portis - With 313 rushing yards and four touchdowns, Portis is on track for 1,252 yards and 16 touchdowns. He is also pacing to have his best statistical receiving year with a projected total of 468 yards. Playing in the rough and tough NFC East, he still has six more games against division opponents who can all stop the run, but that doesn't start until Week 9.

Trade assessment: If you want to trade out Portis, wait until his Week 8 Bye. He will be coming off games against Tennessee and Indianapolis. This will be your chance to receive top dollar in trade.

Oakland Raiders Running Back LaMont Jordan - Somehow, some way, Jordan has managed to gain 4.2 yards per rushing attempt, despite everything else that has gone wrong with that team. The answer to how this could b: a 59-yard run. Jordan has 61 carries for 254 yards on the season. However, if you remove the 50-yard scamper, Jordan's average dips to 3.3 per carry. Still, his current production will only net owners a projected 1,016 yards on the season and four measly scores. Not what anyone had in mind when they took him in the bottom half of Round 1. Things won't get much better with remaining games against tough run defenses within the division: Denver, San Diego and Kansas City.

Trade assessment: Trade him if you can, but be aware that Jordan holds little value right now, if for no other reason than the perception that Oakland is a mess.

Philadelphia Eagles Running Back Brian Westbrook - To start or not to start, that is the question Westbrook owners have faced the last couple of weeks. After being a game-time scratch against Green Bay in Week 4, he was an uncertain play in Week 5. Even with an ailing knee, Westbrook has gotten off to a solid start in 2006, logging 289 yards on 55 touches and 217 yards on 22 receptions. Oh, and don't forget the six total scores he's had so far. Projected out, you're looking at 1,156 rushing yards and 88 catches for 868 yards. The touchdowns project out to 24 in total. Obviously, he won't reach the touchdown mark, but the other totals are conceivable if he remains healthy.

Trade assessment: Westbrook remains an uncertain start. His own coach has come out and indicated his injury status is a week-to-week thing. Add that onto the tough divisional defenses he has to face, and it might be a good time to dangle Westbrook as trade bait. Make sure it's a solid offer, though.

Arizona Cardinals Running Back Edgerrin James - Oh for the love of money, Edge, look what you've done! That could be what James is saying to mirror after the year he's had so far. He has an average of 3.1 yards per rush, lowest of his career. He has a projected yardage total of 1,098, his lowest since 2002 and is on pace for six touchdowns, also the lowest since 2002. The upside is that he has games against weak run defense teams like Oakland, Green Bay, Detroit, St. Louis and San Francisco. The downside is that he also has to face teams like Chicago, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle and San Diego.

Trade assessment: If you need depth and have depth in other positions to offer, James might make a decent trade. However, you will definitely have to play to his matchups.

Miami Dolphins Running Back Ronnie Brown - So much promise for the 'Phins in training camp - so much despair now. Brown is feeling the brunt of the team's problems at the quarterback position. He has yet to break open a 100-yard game. His current per-rush average is down over a yard from last year. He is on pace to log 890 yards and 10 touchdowns. The bright side is that he's much more involved in the passing game, projecting out to 64 catches for 490 yards. Additionally, he has some favorable matchups down the line: New York Jets (twice), Green Bay, Detroit and Indianapolis.

Trade assessment: Miami is experiencing offensive line troubles, which directly affect Brown. If you wish to trade him, wait until after the matchup with Green Bay in Week 7. He should have decent enough numbers from that game to up his value somewhat.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Back Carnell Williams - Watch that first step, Cadillac, because it's a doozy. So it was, from such a promising rookie year to this: one lone touchdown, backed up by 218 yards. His year projects out to 872 yards and four touchdowns. That's the good news. The bad news? He plays in the tough NFC South, which features two tough run defenses in Carolina and Atlanta. He has four more games against the defenses of the NFC East, who all rank in the top half of the league for rushing yards allowed. Oh, and don't forget the occasional game against Chicago and Seattle. There is no easy defense until late December when he goes to Cleveland.

Trade assessment: Williams is coming off an impressive performance in Week 5 when he logged 111 rushing yards. This may be as high as his value gets. The change in quarterback position throws too much uncertainty on how defenses will play the Tampa Bay run game, but it's a good bet that Williams will have some tough sledding ahead. If you can get something decent for him to shore up your team, pull the trigger.

That about wraps it up for this report... There may have been other running backs that snuck into the first round of your league, such as Dallas Cowboys running back Julius Jones or Buffalo Bills running back Willis McGahee.

However, the backs covered in this report were consensus first rounders on many draft boards. Trading out a poor performing high pick is never an easy thing. It is better that they should turn the corner and start producing like a stud. Your job as an owner is to determine if - and when - the turn will happen. If not, you must obtain as much market value as possible. This report is designed to provide forecasting for those stud running backs that are, and aren't, living up to their billing.