Fantasy Football Strategy

Strategy: Rookies and Fantasy Production

October 5, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Well, we've rounded the turn on the first quarter of the season, and it's time to evaluate some of the new bodies on the fantasy landscape. We are talking about rookies, of course. They come in every year, impacting (or not) the game from a variety of positions.

In this report we'll focus on rookies who are starters or have earned significant playing time over the first four games. The recommendations for these players are confined to the immediate future, as we are not gearing this report to keeper leagues.

QUARTERBACKS

Although just one of the following three quarterbacks has been named a starter, they all earn space here simply for the fact that they were high draft picks and have some fans clamoring for their starts.

Denver Broncos Quarterback Jay Cutler - Zero passing attempts, zero completions, zero playing time thus far in three games. He may have looked good in preseason, but the Broncos are riding with quarterback Jake Plummer for now.

Verdict: Cutler has no fantasy value at this time.

Arizona Cardinals Quarterback Matt Leinart - Will he? Won't he? Only head coach Dennis Green knows when Leinart will start. Of course, after the announcement came out of Arizona last week and was retracted the next day, Green named Leinart the starter for Week 5, as well as beyond. With no offensive line, no running game, yet great receivers, what exactly will Leinart do differently than former starter Kurt Warner? He has the weapons around him and has shown the poise, but at the end of the day, Leinart remains a rookie quarterback in the National Football League.

Verdict: Leinart only has fantasy value at this time in very deep leagues or as a No. 3 fantasy quarterback.

Tennessee Titans Quarterback Vince Young - Young received his first start in Week 4 but didn't do much with it, throwing for 155 yards, one touchdown and two picks. Young may have a bright future, but unfortunately head coach Jeff Fisher may not be around to see it. Things are a mess in Titan-land right now and may not get better for the immediate future.

Verdict: Keep an eye on Young. He has minor value as a No. 3 fantasy quarterback in extremely deep leagues.

RUNNING BACKS

On the contrary to the quarterback rookies, there are some running backs worth your time and effort. Don't be surprised to find that they are already sitting on someone else's roster, but if not, pick them up while you can.

Indianapolis Colts Running Back Joseph Addai - The rookie from Louisiana State has yet to start, but he has seen action in all four games so far. In Week 4 against the New York Jets, he logged 20 carries for 84 yards and one touchdown. On the year, he has totaled 207 yards and the one running touchdown. He averages 4.5 yards per carry. As well, he has logged 11 receptions for 72 yards and another touchdown.

Verdict: Addai will be the eventual starter this year, but the team wants him strong for the stretch run. He is good as No. 3 running back or flex player at this time.

Denver Broncos Running Back Mike Bell - After making noise in training camp and the preseason, Bell has fallen off. The starter's nod has been awarded to the other Bell: running back Tatum Bell. On the season, Mike has only gained 114 yards and one touchdown. In the passing game he also used sparingly, totaling five receptions for 42 yards.

Verdict: Mike Bell has little fantasy value at this time except for as a Bye-week filler in deep leagues.

New Orleans Saints Running Back Reggie Bush - Now we come to the big name from this position group. The No. 2 overall pick from the 2006 NFL Draft has found himself a nice niche position down in New Orleans. He is not racking up the yards and scores like many projected he would, but don't take that to mean he has no value. If your league awards points on receptions, that is where Bush currently has value. He may only have 147 yards on the ground right now, but he is averaging just over five catches per game. Bush has recorded 23 receptions so far for 187 yards. It's only a matter of time until the touchdowns start coming.

Verdict: Bush has excellent value as a flex player or as a No. 2 running back on your team, especially with a favorable matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew - This little fireplug raised some eyebrows with his performance against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3: 103 yards, four catches for 32 yards and a score. The speed and quickness of the rookie only added to the highlight reel. Fantasy owners rushed out to pull him off the waiver wire. However, beware of the halo effect. In his other three games, Jones-Drew has only touched the ball seven times for 15 yards. That's in total. The nine catches for 91 yards and two scores shows that he's a part of the game plan but not enough at this stage.

Verdict: He bears watching, especially as the annual Fred Taylor Injury Pool gains steam, in small leagues. However, Jones-Drew has limited value at this time but should be acquired in moderate-to-large formats.

Houston Texans Running Back Wali Lundy - A trendy sleeper pick in August, Lundy was drafted by many an owner trying to decipher the tea leafs that make up the Texans' offensive philosophy. However, the wheels quickly came off the Lundy wagon after two starts to open the season. He lost his starting slot in Week 3 and did not even play in Week 4. That sound you heard was Lundy hitting the waiver pool in leagues across the country.

Verdict: Lundy does not have any fantasy value at this time.

New England Patriots Running Back Laurence Maroney - In contrast to Mr. Lundy, we now have Mr. Maroney, who is showing week after week that he is a viable candidate to start on your squad. During Week 4 he made a splash with 125 yards and two touchdowns. Through the first four games he is averaging 15 carries per game for 74 yards. Against Denver in Week 3, he also logged five catches for 61 yards. On the year, he has totaled 294 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Verdict: Changing of the guard in Patriots-land indicates that Maroney will become more integral to the ground game. Start him if you own him.

Atlanta Falcons Running Back Jerious Norwood - Jerious is one letter off of “serious," and you just knew he was a serious threat with his 78-yard touchdown scamper in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals. Atlanta has essentially come out and said that they will win on the ground, skipping fancy tactics like throwing the forward pass. As of this writing, though, Norwood is only peripheral to that philosophy. He averages just six touches per game although his yards-per-carry average is a gaudy 8.3 yards.

Verdict: May make a good flex player, but his production is too spotty at this time to rely upon. He bears watching over the next few weeks.

San Francisco 49ers Running Back Michael Robinson - The former college quarterback gained some attention in Week 3 when he scored twice, but a closer look at the stat line shows five carries for 29 yards in that game. A season total of 11 carries for 41 yards tells the rest of the tale. Even though fellow running back Frank Gore has had trouble holding onto the ball in goal-line situations, he will still receive the lion's share of work. Robinson may only get a few chances during a game in short-yardage downs.

Verdict: Robinson is not worth starting as the production is too unpredictable.

New York Jets Running Back Leon Washington - Washington took some heat from his Week 4 decision to run the ball out of the end zone, but he had no choice. The only other option was giving up a safety as he had already bumbled the ball into play. In any event, Washington has only received limited opportunities in the last two weeks to show his potential. His 17 carries for 58 yards testify to that. A crowded backfield means that Washington has a long climb up the depth chart this year.

Verdict: Washington has little-to-no fantasy value at this time.

Carolina Panthers Running Back DeAngelo Williams - Williams saw significant action during Week 2 with 14 carries for 74 yards and one touchdown. However, that single game exceeded his production for the other three games combined. Carolina has a history of health issues at the running back position, so this would be Williams' best bet to start. He is likely already on the roster in many leagues, but if you can pick him up to hold, that's a move that could pay dividends. So far he has 135 yards, one touchdown and a 5.4 yards-per-carry average.

Verdict: Williams has good value as a flex player in most leagues.

WIDE RECEIVERS

A seventh-round draft pick anchors this position group and is outperforming nearly all the receivers selected before him. Who said evaluating players is an exact science?

New Orleans Saints Wide Receiver Marques Colston - Owners who took a flier after Week 1 on this wideout have been rewarded with surprising production. Colston is averaging four catches and 84 yards per game. On the year he has 20 catches, 336 yards and three touchdowns. That production did not come at the expense of poor teams either, as he totaled 12 receptions, 229 yards and one touchdown in two contests against stout defenses: the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. Better yet, in a number of leagues he is counted as a tight end, surpassing all others from that position and giving lineup flexibility.

Verdict: Colston must start as he is taking over the No. 1 receiver slot in New Orleans.

New England Patriots Wide Receiver Chad Jackson - Jackson has been inactive for two of the Patriots' four games due to a hamstring injury suffered in training camp. His totals on the year are four receptions for 51 yards and one touchdown.

Verdict: Jackson has little-to-no fantasy value at this time in most formats.

Green Bay Packers Wide Receiver Greg Jennings - After training camp concluded, Packers fans were high on this rookie, and thus far he has not disappointed. Matter of fact, he has been the lone bright spot on a dismal team. His current totals of 15 receptions for 259 yards and two touchdowns seem unworthy of such attention, but consider that he did not start Week 1, only receiving one catch for five yards in that contest. Otherwise he is averaging nearly five catches for 87 yards and one touchdown per game.

Verdict: Jennings is an excellent No. 3 receiver, as he will have games in which he produces like a No. 1 receiver.

TIGHT ENDS

Houston Texans Tight End Owen Daniels - Daniels perked up the ears of prospective owners by scoring a touchdown in consecutive weeks, adding on four catches for 45 yards in one of those weeks. Don't be fooled, however. If you pick up Daniels, even as Bye-week filler, he will likely disappoint. He gained no catches in Week 4. His totals for the year are a measly five receptions, 47 yards and two touchdowns. It's an excellent touchdown ratio per catch but nothing to count on.

Verdict: Daniels has little fantasy value at this time.

San Francisco 49ers Tight End Vernon Davis - He fulfilled the promise of his potential in Week 1 when he logged five catches, 37 yards and a touchdown. That made owners look favorably on Davis, but he has not done anything since. To be fair, he does have a broken leg and is expected to be out of action through October.

Verdict: Davis is a reasonable candidate to stash on the roster, especially for a deep team, if you have the room without sacrificing other positions of need.

Dallas Cowboys Tight End Anthony Fasano - Fasano has started all three games but receives little offensive attention. He has only three catches for 39 yards thus far.

Verdict: Fasano holds no fantasy value at this time.

Jacksonville Jaguars Tight End Marcedes Lewis - Lewis made waves, much like Vernon Davis, during the NFL Combine for his freakish size. However, that has not translated over onto the field yet after missing time with a high ankle sprain early on. Lewis did not see his first pass until Week 4, and even then he gained just two catches for 40 yards.

Verdict: Little to no fantasy value at this time.

Whew. Who would have thought so many rookies warranted this much attention? A good number were drafted by owners before the season. Some have panned out, some have surprised and others have disappointed. If you own any of these rookies or are looking to flesh out your roster, we hope this report has provided some guidance.