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Strategy: Exceeding Expectations

September 22, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

One of the key components that separate successful owners from the rest is the way they watch and tweak their roster lineups. (Note that for the definition of successful we mean those owners who appear in the playoff brackets every year and are a consistent threat to take it all.)

This echelon of owners does not simply make moves to make moves. That's bush league. It leads to dropping promising players and chasing last week's stud. You might as well pick your players based solely on stats. Good owners take a look at recent performance and try to project it out over the approaching schedule. They may pick up a player simply for a three-game stretch because of his matchups, or he may be a season-long replacement for someone else who isn't working out. (LaMont Jordan, we're talking to you.)

In this report, we'll take a look at some of the surprise players that have started off to a bang in the first two weeks and provide an outlook for their viability on your roster.

Chicago Bears Quarterback Rex Grossman

Not surprisingly, a number of Bears players will be covered in this report. The team has raised a few eyebrows, not because of a 2-0 start, but due to the way they got both wins. Grossman has been leading an offensive juggernaut. Considering the fact that many owners shied away from him because his injury history and Chicago's lack of offensive firepower lately, this comes as a nice surprise, especially to Bears' fans. Is he worth picking up?

Place in perspective the two teams that allowed Grossman to throw for 551 yards, five touchdowns and have a 71.7 percent completion rating. The Green Bay Packers could very well be the bottom-dweller of the lackluster NFC North division. Their biggest rival for this (dis)honor will likely be the... Detroit Lions, whom Chicago whooped last week. Don't be fooled by Detroit's defensive showing in Week 1. That is looking more like the doing of the Seattle Seahawks than Detroit. The Bears do have some easy defenses they face down the stretch, but that is balanced by a tough three-game jaunt to the East Coast in November.

Bottom line: Watch Grossman this week against a more formidable defense in the Minnesota Vikings at their home. If he still posts solid numbers, he most likely is for real and worth picking up. However, do not plan for him as your quarterback stud. Keep him on the bench waiting for those good match-ups.

New York Jets Quarterback Chad Pennington

Is he back? Is he healthy? How great of a fantasy player was he before he got hurt? That is the crux right there. Pennington has a number of strikes against him: He has never played all 16 games. Ever. He has topped 20 touchdowns only once, and that was in 2002 with 22. He does have a nice completion percentage with 65.4 for his career, but you probably aren't in an accuracy league. The four touchdowns in the first two weeks probably look real attractive right now, but they don't come without risk.

Here's some other knocks against him: He no longer has All-World running back Curtis Martin taking heat off him. He has two rookies, albeit promising, starting on his offensive line. He also plays in a division that has three better-than-average defenses.

Bottom line: If Pennington is floating on waivers and you need depth, he will make a good grab. As long as you understand that those 300-yard games are more likely an anomaly than a trend. He has tough match-ups ahead with Buffalo (twice), Jacksonville, New England and Miami (twice.)

San Francisco 49ers Quarterback Alex D. Smith

Let's talk keeper leagues here. Smith has shown some growth in his first two games of the year. In all honesty though, he had nowhere to go but up after last year's debacle. However, the future does look bright for the former No. 1 draft pick. He has topped 200 yards in both games this year and has thrown a touchdown in each as well. He has emerging offensive threats in running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Antonio Bryant. He will also be going against some weaker defensive teams in the Oakland Raiders, Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams (again), New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers.

Bottom line: Pick up Smith if you really, really need a quarterback. In a keeper league he could be a great "get" this year, but don't be blinded by the easy teams on the 2006 schedule. There is also the Seattle Seahawks (twice), Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos on the horizon. It is these matchups that will prevent Smith from being a reliable starter this year but not, perhaps, the next.

San Francisco 49ers Running Back Frank Gore

In contrast to the guarded advice about his quarterback, we're advocating the pickup of Gore. Chances are someone else in your league has already made the move and will demand a trade. Gore did not receive many carries in 2005 but still managed to turn in a respectable 4.8 yards-per-carry average. In Week 17 he carried the full load, toting the rock 25 times for 108 yards. Now in 2006, with fellow running back Kevan Barlow ensconced in New York, Gore is the starter. His first two games have resulted in 214 yards, three touchdowns and, you guessed it, a 4.8 yards-per-carry average.

Bottom line: Trade for Gore if he's available. Though he has the same challenge as Smith in the defenses he will face, San Fran has already shown a willingness to let him put the team in his back.

Minnesota Vikings Running Back Chester Taylor

If you're someone who simply looks at the statline, Taylor may not impress you thus far: two games, 201 yards, a touchdown and just six receptions. Blah, that's not a No. 1 fantasy back. However, if you have the ability to look past numbers, you'll see Taylor is an upcoming stud. The Vikings have indicated they will place the lion's share of the game on his shoulder, as evidenced by his 31 carries in Week 1, even though he came out of it with a lousy 2.8 yards-per-carry average. He is in an offense that utilizes the running back as part of the passing game and has a passer in quarterback Brad Johnson who is willing to use him. Mostly, he has a road grader offensive line that will pave the way. Oh, and those first two games? They were against top-tier defenses from 2005. Wait until he goes up against some weaker division opponents.

Bottom line: He's another player to trade for. In a keeper league Taylor definitely has value as he is young, his offensive line is young and signed through the next few years. That can only bode well for this back.

New York Jets Wide Receiver Jerricho Cotchery

If you like football at all, you have seen the amazing catch-and-run by Cotchery in Week 2 against New England. The third-year player, along with partner wide receiver Laveranues Coles, is off to a fantastic start. Cotchery is averaging six catches, 93 yards and one touchdown per game. It can't last, but it sure is nice to think about, eh? Here's the caveat emptor: unless the J-E-T-S get their ground game going, the passing attack will dry up real quick. They can't play the Tennessee Titans every week.

Bottom line: Grab Cotchery if you can. Coles is listed as questionable as of this writing, which could lead to more targets for Cotchery. However, be aware that the schedule is not kind for the next few weeks, what with teams like the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars coming up.

New Orleans Saints Wide Receiver Marques Colston

Who? If you asked yourself this last week, don't feel bad. The mainstream media wants only to get a piece of running back Reggie Bush when it comes to Saints football. Now there's another rookie making his presence felt. Colston, lined up across from Pro Bowl wide receiver Joe Horn, is averaging four catches, 53 yards and one score per game so far. Newly acquired quarterback Drew Brees seems comfortable throwing to the rookie. Of course, the usual caution applies: This production came against two weaker teams in the Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers.

Bottom line: Before you pick up Colston, take a look at his upcoming schedule. The Saints are facing stiff defensive competition. In fact, based on early season results, the Saints won't face an "easy" defense until early December when San Francisco comes to town. Don't expect Colston to produce like a No. 1 receiver on your roster.

New York Giants Wide Receiver Amani Toomer

Let's see... 12 receptions for 137 yards and two scores? Wow, nice day. Enjoy it, Toomer, because in your 11th year there won't be many more of those to come. For prospective owners: Toomer hasn't had a 100-yard game since Nov. 2004. It has been even longer since he had two touchdowns in one game. In fact, Toomer has never crested a 100 catches in one season and went the entire 2004 campaign without snaring one score.

Bottom line: Pick him up for Bye-week filler or as depth. While fellow wide receiver Plaxico Burress is the go-to guy, Toomer is still getting looks. He's just not a No. 1 receiver anymore. Playing in the defensive-minded NFC East doesn't help much either.

Chicago Bears Wide Receiver Bernard Berrian

Berrian is showing the downfield speed for which the Bears drafted him. His two-game average is a staggering 23.0 yards per reception. Of course, a couple of deep ball touchdowns lever that number upward, and it cannot stay that high. As with Grossman above, Berrian's outlook is tempered by the teams he has scored against thus far. The Week 3 tilt against the Minnesota Vikings will be a telling game.

Bottom line: If you have room on your bench, Berrian could be a good grab. The upside is that he plays against Green Bay and Detroit in the last two weeks of the year, often championship weeks for league playoffs. The downside is that defenses will be tough sledding during the middle of the year, and Grossman has already shown a penchant for using all of his options. This could take away a lot of targets for Berrian if the deep routes are covered.

Chicago Bears Tight End Desmond Clark

We warned you that there were a lot of Bears' players in this report. Clark has racked up 10 catches, 162 catches and one touchdown to top it off. These are numbers that tight end studs like New York Giants tight end Jeremy Shockey or San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates should be holding right now.

Bottom line: Much like the advice given for Grossman and Berrian, be aware that Clark's numbers have been inflated by the competition this early in the year. However, the one thing Clark has as an edge is the outlet option when defenses crowd Grossman. The quarterback has already shown faith in Clark, and when the deeper routes go bye-bye, Clark could be the recipient of more targets. If you're weak at tight end, Clark will make a good pickup.

Chicago Bears Place Kicker Robbie Gould

Of all the Bears' players thus far, Gould could be the best grab. The flash of Chicago's deep scoring strikes has masked a troubling inability to score once inside the red zone. In the first two games of the year, Chicago has had eight total possessions inside their opponents' 20-yard line. Of those, they scored just two touchdowns. Gould was called upon to kick a field goal in five of those trips, and an interception by Green Bay rounds out the total. Again, remember the quality (or lack thereof) in the defenses for both of these games.

Bottom line: Grab Gould if your kicker is weak. He will get more chances as tougher defenses come into play. However, you should know that in 2005 Gould was only three of eight for field goal attempts beyond the 40-yard line. If your league grants bonuses for distance, keep this in mind.

There you have it... Recommendations on a bunch of Bears players with a few others thrown in for good measure! Beyond just looking at these players, this article is designed to provide an outline of how to judge those players that make big splashes for a game or two. Are they bona fide pickups or just one-week wonders? Do some research, check out upcoming opponents and compare it to your current roster. Making good moves is essential to managing a winning team.