Fantasy Football Strategy

Strategy: Underachieving Studs

September 14, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Do you remember the feeling when you discovered you were in the top three slots for your fantasy draft? Oh, the joy. For sure one of the "Big Three" fantasy studs would be the anchor to your team this year. The chances of you becoming champion just increased by securing one of these three on your roster. That's how strong they were last year. For those of you living under a rock, the Big Three to which we refer are:

Seattle Seahawks Running Back Shaun Alexander
Kansas City Chiefs Running Back Larry Johnson
San Diego Chargers Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson

Coming into the 2006 season these were the premier players to nab. Experts may have disagreed on the order in which they should be drafted but very few disputed their placement at the top. However, all three came with some question marks, albeit minor. For the sake of accuracy, let's quickly recap those issues.

Seattle Seahawks Running Back Shaun Alexander

Free agency news this spring centered on the Minnesota Vikings offering a poison pill contract to left guard Steve Hutchinson. We don't need to rehash the details. Suffice to say that the end result was Alexander losing a significant cog from the line that had bulldozed the way for his record-setting 2005 season. Pundits asked: "Will Alexander be able to find the same success behind a lesser line?"

Kansas City Chiefs Running Back Larry Johnson

Much like Alexander, Johnson lost a major component of his offensive line during the offseason. In this case it was left tackle Willie Roaf to retirement. Many of Johnson's yards, when he was racking up nine consecutive 100-yard games to close out last year, came along the left side. Would the loss of Roaf hinder Johnson's ability to run on that side?

San Diego Chargers Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson

Tomlinson's case is a little different. He has a new quarterback under center: Philip Rivers. Rivers has never started a game and is essentially a third-year rookie. Would Tomlinson's numbers be affected by a novice passer? Would defenses simply stack the line once they discover Rivers is not a passing threat?

So that was then. Three blue chip stud running backs... For most owners it was not a question of whether they would take one in the first three picks, but who? Lucky you... you got yourself one, the pivot point around which the rest of your team would just chip in filler points. Week 1 could not come fast enough.

Well, it did, and the aftermath has left some owners scratching their heads. Only Tomlinson had a game worthy of his status: 131 yards and one touchdown, along with a smattering of catches. Alexander posted a mere 51 yards and no touchdowns, against the lowly Detroit Lions no less. At least Johnson had five catches for 80 yards to couple with his 68 rushing yards.

Are these the numbers you envisioned carrying your team? Can you win a trophy off 50 yards of production each week from your No. 1 player? Do you truly believe Week 1 is a sign of things to come?

Since KFFL is in the business of giving advice, we're going to present three different scenarios for owners who are fretting that their studs suddenly became duds.

1) FULL-BLOWN PANIC

Trade, trade, trade. You could get two players - maybe three or four! - in a swap for Alexander, so pull the trigger. Pick out some other players who scored points this week. Arizona Cardinals running back Edgerrin James logged a touchdown, so his season will be better, right? Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Donte' Stallworth: Well he just needed a better team to strut his stuff, right? Never mind the quality of opponent.

Obviously this advice is tinged with a bit of sarcasm. It definitely is targeted to the crowd who bets it all on Red 19. Following this scenario is an extremely high-risk move. Your player may be in a down swell, but are you confident in knowing who else will blow up this year, after just one week of play? What if you guess wrong? Think about it. Here's another thing to consider: As the requestor of a trade, you are at a slight disadvantage in terms of bargaining power. If other owners sense that you are desperate to move a stud because of one week's worth of performance, that could really lead to some blood in the water. Don't count on coming out ahead in this scenario.

2) STRATEGIC PLANNING

A number of players who were afterthoughts, late rounders or even undrafted, made some noise in Week 1. New England Patriots running back Laurence Maroney, San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore, New York Jets wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marques Colston and New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs are just a few. In small leagues, many of these players may still be available. Larger leagues will have them sitting on the bench and likely require a trade.

In any event, if Week 1 has you nervous about your stud, you can make background moves to acquire some promising bench players. Quality depth allows more flexibility in setting your roster come the weekend, provides a safety blanket should your stud fall flat and could eventually become trade bait back to another owner. This is just good fundamental strategy regardless of your current record. If you don't have good depth, make these moves anyway.

3) WEATHER THE STORM

Rookie owners make hair-trigger moves. Rookie owners do not look at the big picture. These are pitfalls that lead to notches in the loss column.

A veteran owner understands that even blue chip players will have down weeks. That the down week came in the first week of the season doesn't change the mindset of a veteran owner. While no one likes starting off 0-1, there is, to utilize a trite phrase, "there is a lot of football left to play." To place it in perspective: Half the owners in every league are 0-1 right now. Panicking and making bone-headed trades will only bring on 0-2. Alexander, Johnson and Tomlinson achieved their lofty status not by posting big numbers in a couple of games but over the course of a season or more. There's a track record behind them. That's what matters, because it indicates that of any players, these three will regain their form and soon.

This last scenario is KFFL's recommendation. One week of play is not enough evidence to toss out the best player on your team. A couple more games need to occur before making judgment. So hang in there, owner boy. Scrap the idea of a perfect season and aim instead for the championship trophy, for when you loft it high, no one will care that you started 0-1.