Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

July 25, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Two summers ago, the Detroit Tigers were in position to draft an impact player after enduring a painful 119 loss season in 2003. Even though Long Beach State's Jered Weaver was considered the best pitcher in the draft pool, Detroit selected Old Dominion flame thrower Justin Verlander with the second overall pick in the 2004 MLB Amateur Draft. The Tigers strayed away from Weaver due to contractual demands and because they felt Verlander had more raw talent to develop into an ace. 

Two years later, Verlander has played an integral role in helping the Detroit Tigers to a 67-32 mark, the best record in Major League Baseball. The rookie is having a Cy Young-caliber season after not being guaranteed a big league roster spot entering the final week of Spring Training. The native Virginian's 12 wins and 2.77 earned run average - both of which currently rank second in the American League.  

Table: Justin Verlander's Career Statistics

Year	Club	Level	W	L	ERA	WHIP	IP	K	H	BB	ER	HR
2005	Lakeland	A	9	2	1.67	1.03	86.0	104	70	19	16	3
2005	Erie	AA	2	0	0.28	0.58	33.0	32	11	7	1	1
2005	Detroit	AL	0	2	7.17	1.82	11.0	7	15	5	9	1
2006	Detroit	AL	12	4	2.77	1.15	123.2	80	106	36	38	11

Verlander is a lanky right-hander who stands at 6-5, 200 pounds. There's no secret that Verlander's bread and butter pitch is his exploding fastball. The rookie's four-seam fastball consistently touches the mid-to-high 90s on the radar gun. Occasionally, the 23-year-old will rear back and hit the century mark. Verlander's heater is such an attraction that it's easy to forget that he has two other above-average offerings in his repertoire. His biting curveball and late-moving changeup are both quality pitches, and they frustrate batters who are already rattled by the right-hander's cheese. In terms of stuff, Verlander is the complete package.  

Fantasy players should be a little concerned about Verlander holding up physically through the duration of the season, given his age and the fact he has pitched seven more innings this year than his junior campaign at Old Dominion. Detroit manager Jim Leyland has done an admirable job of limiting Verlander's workload, the rookie has only succeeded 108 pitches in two of his 19 starts. In 16 of those 19 starts, the right-hander has thrown 105 pitches or less. There has been speculation Leyland might change to a six-man rotation in September to depress the youngster's overall usage, but Detroit would need to be assured of a postseason spot for that scenario to happen.

The major complaint about Verlander is the lack of strikeouts he generates for a power pitcher. The rookie currently averages 5.82 strikeouts per nine innings, a mediocre ratio. Coming out of college, the knock on Verlander was his erratic command. In his first two professional seasons, Verlander dispelled that criticism by not giving up many free passes and surrendering fewer base hits than innings thrown. Verlander is still learning the finer nuances of pitching and is using a more methodical approach to retire batters. Verlander is sacrificing strikeouts in order to serve up less walks and trust his defense to make outs. Even though scouts marvel at the quality of his secondary pitches, Verlander has been content sticking with his fastball in unfavorable pitch counts this season. Despite being more predictable than other hurlers, batters are still having a difficult time making good contact with his overpowering four-seamer. 

Verlander's statistics are remarkable regardless of the strikeout rate. Verlander has the stuff, talent and track record to develop into one of the top whiff artists in the long run. That will happen as Verlander refines his command and gains more confidence in utilizing his curveball and changeup as out pitches. His strikeout numbers were healthy in the minors, and it's easy to forget he never pitched at the Triple-A level and had a brief stint in Double-A.

Bottom Line

Right now, Verlander is one of the top five to seven fantasy starting pitchers. Fatigue could be an issue down the stretch for the youngster, but his performance has shown no signs of a dropoff. Due to his immense talent, Verlander should not be soured on in a keeper format because of his strikeout numbers. The sky is the limit. Outside of Minnesota's Francisco Liriano and Seattle's Felix Hernandez, there isn't a better young pitcher in baseball.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

One Day FREE Fantasy Contest - $350 in cash prizes (05/24)
Fantasy baseball players in the news (05/24)
Fantasy football players in the news (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Dee Gordon's problems at bat (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Will Smith, Yordano Ventura, Wil Myers, more (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: How trade talks develop (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Tyler Clippard, J.J. Putz (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Mark Teixeira's ill beginnings (05/23)
Fantasy NASCAR race preview: Coca-Cola 600 (05/23)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/23)