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Z - Impact Analysis

Eddie Guardado, RP, Cincinnati Reds

July 10, 2006 @ 14:29:34

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By Joshua Ellis
Edited by KFFL Staff

On July 6, the Seattle Mariners traded relief pitcher Eddie Guardado to the Cincinnati Reds for pitching prospect Travis Chick.  Guardado made his debut in 1993 with the Minnesota Twins as a starter but it was later realized that the ninth inning would become his domain.  After nine seasons of mediocre starting and middle relief pitching for the Twins, Guardado was named the teams' closer for the 2002 season.  Over the next four years, two with the Twins and two with the Mariners, Guardado racked up 140 saves with an ERA under 3.00.  Guardado entered the 2006 season again as the go-to guy in the ninth for the Mariners.  Things didn't go as smoothly this year though.  In 28 appearances this season, Guardado was 1-3 with a 5.48 ERA.  He was also just five-for-eight in save opportunities.  His lack of production made manager Mike Hargrove use relief pitcher J.J. Putz in save situations.  Putz has responded by taking full advantage of the opportunity.  He is 1-0 with a 2.23 ERA and 15 saves in 17 chances.  Guardado began to collect dust in the Mariners bullpen and they decided to look for a trade opportunity for the 36-year-old. 

The Reds, who are having a surprisingly good 2006 campaign, have had a lot of trouble with the back end of their bullpen.  Relief pitcher David Weathers began the season as the man in the ninth inning.  He has a 5.22 ERA, has only converted on nine of 15 save opportunities and has been battling shoulder tendonitis.  The Reds subsequently turned to early season sensation, relief pitcher Todd Coffey to close games.  He has a 3.20 ERA with seven saves in nine chances, but in his last 11 appearances Coffey has allowed nine runs in 11 innings, which has frightened the Reds coaching staff into believing that he isn't the right guy for the job.  So when Guardado became available, a proven closer, they jumped all over it.  After the trade was made, Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky was quoted as saying of Guardado "He lives for the ninth inning. He loves the pressure of being in that situation, and we're going to give him that opportunity."   This indicates that Guardado will be the closer in Cincinnati.

Chick, the player the Reds gave up for Guardado, is a 22-year-old pitcher who has yet to appear in a regular season major league game.  He was selected in the 14th round of the 2002 entry draft and hasn't reached Triple-A yet.  Chick has spent this season with Double-A Chattanooga and has a 4.61 ERA.  His career minor league ERA is around 4.40 so it appears he is a work in progress before he can make it to the big leagues.

This trade affects Guardado's fantasy value in a significant way.  In Seattle, Guardado was washed up for the season, eating innings here and there with very little fantasy value.  But in Cincinnati, Guardado is now on a good team and has been promised by the general manager a chance to close games.  This trade gives Guardado new life with the move to the National League and a clean slate for his new season.  Guardado has a chance in Cincinnati to record a lot of saves.

The trade will have an adverse affect on the owners of Coffey though.  A lot of fantasy owners may have picked him up for the save opportunities and his early season sparkling ERA, but Guardado may be making Coffey a set-up man instead of a closer as Coffey has had a rough go of it as of late.  Coffey has seen his value in all leagues take a hit.

This trade should help the Cincinnati starting pitchers because now the team with the highest bullpen ERA in the National League has a more dependable option to close out games.  Cincinnati also has 13 blown games this season.

Since the trade, Guardado has already made one appearance for the Reds where he had a perfect inning with one strikeout.  In most leagues where every closer is pretty much taken, Guardado has the opportunity to be a nice free agent pickup for the second half of the season.   



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Author Bio

Joshua Ellis
Joshua has been a KFFL contributor since 2006.

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