Matthew Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

June 30, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Joshua Ellis
Edited by KFFL Staff

It is often the case when big league players get hurt or need rest for a team to recall a ballplayer from the next highest league, Triple-A, to replace them.  The talent Los Angeles outfielder Matthew Kemp showed in his time with the Double-A Jacksonville Suns prompted the Dodgers organization to have Kemp forgo the Triple-A and jump straight to the major leagues.  Kemp was the 181st overall pick of the 2003 draft, where he was selected straight out of high school.  He went directly to rookie ball the summer of his draft and had an immediate impact.  In the shortened 42 game season, Kemp hit .270 and also stole seven bases.  Kemp began to progress through the Dodgers farm system because of the promise he showed at the plate and also at all three defensive positions in the outfield.  He played the next season in Single-A Columbus where he showed he was not only a player that could hit for average, but also for power.  Kemp went on to hit .288 and belt 17 home runs in 111 games.  That performance was good enough for Kemp to be promoted to high Single-A Vero Beach for 11 games to finish the season.  At Vero Beach, Kemp batted .351 in 37 at-bats.  In 2005, Kemp spent the entire season with Vero Beach in the high Single-A league.  A .306 average with 27 home runs made Kemp one of the best prospects in the Dodgers organization.  He also began showing an ability to steal bases.  Prior to the 2005 season with Vero Beach, Kemp had just 14 stolen bases in 23 attempts.  In his first full season with Vero Beach, Kemp had 23 stolen bases in 29 attempts.  As he continued his climb up the farm system, the next stop was at Double-A Jacksonville.  At Jacksonville it was more of the same from Kemp.  In 48 games with the Suns, Kemp hit .327 with seven home runs.  The trend of stealing bases successfully also continued as he swiped 11 bags in just 13 attempts.  Overall, the offensive statistics Kemp exhibited in the minor leagues and his versatility in the outfield made him the Dodgers' pick to promote to the major league club. 

One player that is similar to Kemp and comparisons can be drawn from is Atlanta Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur.  Francoeur was a rookie sensation in 2005 right when he got his call up from the minor leagues.  The similarities between Francoeur and Kemp are uncanny.  Francoeur was selected 23rd overall in the 2002 draft directly out of high school.  Like Kemp, Francoeur had successful campaigns in rookie ball which he was then promoted to Single-A, then high Single-A and finally Double-A.  Francoeur and Kemp both made the jump from Double-A to the major leagues.  Their stats in the minor leagues are also very similar.  This table will illustrate the similarities in the minor league careers.

Table: Matthew Kemp and Jeff Francoeur minor league stats

Player	AB	Hits	HR	RBI	SB	CS	SO	BB	Avg.
Matthew Kemp	1,236	371	53	216	46	17	267	80	.300
Jeff Francoeur	1,413	399	53	222	46	21	261	88	.282

Francoeur and Kemp have had similar starts to their major league careers as well.  The beginning of Francoeur's career had people talking about him as a future Hall-of-Famer.  Thirty-five games into his season, Francoeur was hitting .362 with ten home runs and 30 RBI.  He was then tabbed by Sports Illustrated as "The Natural" when he was featured on the cover.  Francoeur's season then took a turn for the worse and he hit just .236 with four home runs and 15 RBI in his final 35 games.  Francoeur has also begun the 2006 season off to a slow start.  He is hitting just .254 this season, but he has 15 home runs.

Kemp is off to a Francoeur-like start to his major league career as well.  He hit .333 with seven home runs in his first 22 games of the season.  This start called for comparisons as "The next Manny Ramirez" much like Francoeur's nickname as "The Natural" , but a slump the past few games have made some people back off those statements.  Kemp has since gone 0-for-10 in his last three games, dropping his average to .295 on the season.  Many times new players in the major leagues have success early in their careers because their opponents haven't had an opportunity to scout them and determine how to get the player out.  Once the new player has enough film on him, other teams can find ways to get the player out.  This is what happened to Francoeur and it may be what is happening to Kemp.  He started hot, teams figured out how to pitch to him, and now he's struggling.  The pressure is also on for Kemp.  Fellow outfielder Andre Ethier is also having a very productive season.  Kemp outplayed Ethier for the starting spot, but the Dodgers may go back to playing Ethier more consistently.  In his first season, Ethier is hitting .323 with four home runs in 130 at-bats.  If Kemp doesn't begin hitting soon, Ethier may step in and take the bulk of the playing time.

For owners of Kemp, we will issue a warning.  He began the season on a tear but has since gone into a slump.  Kemp showed in his early time as a starter that he can be an asset to your team's batting average, power numbers and stolen bases but he may just be another Franceour-esque phenom bust.  Give Kemp some time to see if his slump is because he's not hitting well because of circumstances under his control or if his slump continues because of other major league teams figuring out a way to pitch to him.  This is truly a high risk high reward situation.  If things don't begin to pan out with Kemp, go out and find a more consistent option.  Don't wait too long for Kemp to work his way out of the slump as the chances of him turning things around completely and becoming a solid contributor are not superb, this season at least.  In keeper formats, Kemp is as good of a prospect as there is right now.

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Joshua Ellis
Joshua has been a KFFL contributor since 2006.

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