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Z - Impact Analysis

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

June 13, 2006 @ 14:29:34

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By Matthew Scott Carr
Edited by KFFL Staff

The St. Louis Cardinals are living through one of their worst possible nightmares - the loss of their All-Star first baseman Albert Pujols (oblique), who is currently on the 15-day disabled list with a right oblique strain.

An MRI performed last week was inconclusive about the extent of the injury to Pujols' right side and an accurate time table for his return is unclear. Though manager Tony La Russa believes that Pujols will almost definitely be out longer than the 15 days, with some estimates pointing that the slugger could be out as long as six weeks.

The news couldn't be worse for St. Louis, who is barely holding onto their lead in the NL Central, just a game and a half ahead of the surging Cincinnati Reds.

Pujols is the epicenter of the Cardinals offense, batting .308 with a league leading 25 home runs and 65 RBI. Since Pujols' exit during the June 3 meeting with the Chicago Cubs, the Cardinals have lost four of their last six games. But the team's struggles began prior to Pujols' injury, winning just three of their last 10, including being just 3-6 in the month of June.

With Pujols out, the Cardinals have been desperate for a replacement, using a variety of options. Initially, St. Louis put center fielder Jim Edmonds at first, allowing the Gold Glover the opportunity to work his way back into the lineup after suffering a sprained wrist at the end of May, which he had missed five games with. Edmonds just really hasn't been hitting well all season, batting .251 with six home runs and 35 RBI.

The Cardinals then switched to using a combination of first basemen Chris Duncan, who was pulled up from Triple-A Memphis, and veteran Scott Spiezio as Edmonds slowly returned to the outfield. Spiezio was sidelined in early June for seven games with an upper respiratory infection and has never demonstrated a penchant for being a power hitter, with a career .254 batting average and never hitting 20 homers in a single season in his career. So far this season, Spiezio is batting .292 with three home runs and 19 RBI in 96 at-bats.

The re-called Duncan is hardly a threat either, hitting .294 with two home runs and five RBI, and has managed just five hits in his last 10 games, though the majority of those appearances were as a pinch-hitter. He has hit a little better in the past two games where he has started at first base, going 3-for-8 with a run scored.

With Pujols out, the Cardinals have moved third baseman Scott Rolen into the number three slot in the order. Regardless where he has hit, Rolen has been hot lately, getting a hit in 14 of the Cardinals last 15 games and has scored a run in seven of the team's last 10. He's given the hitters behind him ample RBI opportunities, while he has benefited from the success of shortstop David Eckstein. So far this season, batting out of the No. 3 slot, Rolen is hitting .370 with a homer, 10 RBI and nine runs in 28 at-bats. So the move has proven valuable to him, especially without Pujols clearing all the bases.

St. Louis has shuffled right fielder Juan Encarnacion and Edmonds into the No. 4 spot in the order with decent results. Encarnacion has done well so far this month, getting a hit in eight of the team's last 10 outings, including five multi-hit games. He's recorded six RBI since Pujols has gone out (the last seven games) and is batting .279 out of the four spot in the order. His numbers can be really benefit from hitting closer to Eckstein and Rolen.

Edmonds has also done fair, overall, though he is still working his way back from a wrist injury and has really had a lackluster performance so far this year. Since returning to the lineup June 4, Edmonds has only seven hits in 29 at-bats. He's only recorded hits in three of the Cardinals' last 10 games, though three of those were multi-hit games, recording a home run, six RBI and three runs scored during that span. He's been more successful higher up in the lineup, but he is still demonstrating the troubles that have plagued him this season.

Obviously, the Cardinals would be miracle workers if they could pull a player from their bench and have them put up the numbers that Pujols was. And in fantasy terms, his production will be almost impossible to replace.

But, there are some stop-gaps available. Here is a list of commonly available first basemen you may consider plugging into your lineup while Pujols is out:

Name
Team
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG.
Lyle Overbay
TOR
32
9
34
2
.284
Mike Jacobs
FLA
21
8
34
2
.260
Adam LaRoche
ATL
30
10
35
--
.246
Kevin Millar
BAL
27
6
28
--
.240
Ben Broussard
CLE
33
9
33
--
.366
Mike Lamb
HOU
22
5
14
--
.355
Adrian Gonzalez
SD
28
7
23
--
.271

Top Options

1. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays - Overbay has one homer, five RBI and six runs scored in the last 10 games. Over the past month, Overbay is hitting .278 with five home runs, 17 runs scored, 13 RBI and two stolen bases.

2. Mike Jacobs, Florida Marlins - Jacobs has been on a tear lately, recording hits in nine of the Marlins last 10 games, including six multi-hit games. Over the past 10 games he's played, he's hit three homers, scored three runs and recorded six RBI. Over the last month, he's been hitting .333 with four home runs, nine runs scored and 18 RBI.

3. Adam LaRoche, Atlanta Braves - LaRoche has hit safely in seven of the Braves' last 10 games, recording one home run, five RBI and five runs scored. Over the last month, he's hitting .282 with five home runs, 12 runs scored and 16 RBI.



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Author Bio

Matthew Scott Carr

Matthew Scott Carr has been an avid football follower and fan for as long as he can remember. He became involved in fantasy sports in 1999, which transformed an already fanatical sports worship into a full-fledged psycho. Carr joined the KFFL team in 2004.

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