Roger Clemens, SP, Houston Astros

June 2, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Matthew Scott Carr
Edited by KFFL Staff

Like fellow athletes Michael Jordan, George Foreman and Deion Sanders, Houston Astros starting pitcher Roger Clemens just can't seem to stay retired - it's like a Cher farewell tour.

Ending all the hoopla of "will he or won't he" that began even before spring training, Clemens un-retired for the third consecutive time and signed a one-year deal to rejoin the Houston Astros, worth some $22 million, though Clemens will only see about $12.5 million of that sum because of the prorated terms of the contract.

There really weren't many who believed "The Rocket" would remain in "retirement" this season. Most saw his return as a matter of time and money. The belief was mirrored by the fact he was drafted in most fantasy leagues with owners simply resolved to tucking him away on their bench, waiting for the inevitable announcement - "The Rocket is back!"

Clemens is 43, and will turn 44 by the end of the season, but there is little doubt that he will be effective. Last year he helped lead the Astros to the World Series with 13 wins. He struck out 185 and sported a league-leading and career-best ERA of just 1.87 while holding opponents' batting average to .198, which was also tops in the majors. He would have been a hands down Cy Young candidate last year if he had received better run support from his fellow Astros, who abandoned him, failing to score in seven games in which Clemens allowed three runs or less, including three games in which he allowed just one run, and one game in which Clemens gave up just two hits. There was no greater tragedy in baseball last season than that. Despite a sub-20 win record, Clemens was still arguably worthy of being crowned the National League Cy Young winner.

His return to the Astros this season, after about three minor league starts, will likely push starting pitcher Fernando Nieve out of Houston's rotation. In eight appearances this season, Nieve has been less than spectacular with a record of 1-3 and an ERA of 5.36, though he has struck out 31 in 47 innings pitched.

Clemens has a record of 341-172 for his career, with 46 shutouts and a lifetime ERA of 3.12. His 4,502 strikeouts are second most in MLB history behind Nolan Ryan's astronomical 5,714. Over the past three seasons, Clemens has averaged 16 wins, 198 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.92 per year. Over the past four years, his ERA and WHIP have gotten progressively better, going from 4.35 and 1.31, respectively, in 2002, to an ERA of 1.87 and a WHIP of 1.01 last season.

Last season, Clemens allowed just two or more earned runs in only five of his 32 starts, and recorded two earned runs or less in 16 of his last 20 starts.

So, if for some beguiling reason he's available in free agency, it would be prudent to acquire him. If someone's willing to part with him, it might be worth formulating a trade. From a fantasy standpoint, even if he doesn't record double-digit wins, which is likely with Houston's current struggles, his historically low ERA and WHIP, and his average of nearly seven strikeouts per outing are still valuable.

There's some speculation the reason Clemens decided to rejoin the Astros this late is because he just can't handle 200-plus innings worth of work anymore. He is often attacked for his performance in the postseason, and wants to remain fresh for Houston this season, if they are able to rally and make a push towards an appearance in October. With the Astros, Clemens is 4-2 in the postseason with an ERA of 4.60 and 29 strikeouts in 41 innings.

The addition of Clemens will again give the Astros an intimidating 1-2-3 punch with starting pitchers Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte, the same trio that anchored Houston's World Series run in 2005. But they might not be as fearsome as last season's incarnation.

The problem is, Oswalt has struggled as of late, and hasn't recorded a win since May 3, posting just one victory in his last seven starts. Pettitte is struggling, his ERA ballooned at 5.65, and the only thing keeping it below 6.00 is a complete game shutout against the Colorado Rockies on May 14.

The flailing continues as the Astros have only won three of their last 10 and are sitting at .500 on the season, 7.5 games behind the division leading St. Louis Cardinals.

One provision for Clemens' return this season was the team he signed with would have to be a definite postseason contender. At this point, the Astros don't really look like one.

Clemens and the Astros are targeting June 22 against the Minnesota Twins as the Rocket's official 2006 debut. Depending if that date holds true, if Clemens' isn't hobbled by injuries, he'll see about 15 to 20 starts this season.

The Astros are in desperate need of something and hopefully the excitement Clemens' return will undoubtedly garnish (his first minor league appearance sold out the 9,000 seats in about half an hour) will provide them that. They are near the bottom of the league in batting average (.256), runs (248) and ERA (4.62) and even ace closer Brad Lidge has struggled, though he has managed to lower his ERA to 5.26 with five consecutive scoreless innings.

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Matthew Scott Carr

Matthew Scott Carr has been an avid football follower and fan for as long as he can remember. He became involved in fantasy sports in 1999, which transformed an already fanatical sports worship into a full-fledged psycho. Carr joined the KFFL team in 2004.

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