Francisco Liriano, P, Minnesota Twins

May 19, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By James Eberspacher
Edited by KFFL Staff

That thumping noise you may have been hearing is opportunity knocking. Before you run to the door and risk pulling a hammy, sit down because it is not for you. Rather the opportunity knocking is for Minnesota Twins pitcher Francisco Liriano.

If you are beginning to experience deja vu we're not surprised, this is the third impact report on Liriano in less than a year. However, this one is different. Different because Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has benched pitcher Carlos Silva and inserted Liriano into the starting rotation. Apparently Gardenhire finally realized his hard stance on not shaking things up in the rotation is not going to keep the Twins in the hunt in the American League Central.

In this report, we will take a brief look at Liriano's rise from prospect to finally landing a spot in the rotation. We will enlighten you - or refresh your memory - on what kind of stuff Liriano possesses. More importantly, we will prognosticate on the impact this move will have in the fantasy world.

FRANCISCO SANTANA

No, that's not a typo. It is simply a quick way to describe what type of skills Liriano has. The 22-year-old lefty shows good presence on the mound at 6-foot-2 and 201 pounds. However, it is his array of pitches that have drawn the most comparisons to Twins starting ace Johan Santana. With four pitches in his repertoire, Liriano is a powerful but crafty pitcher. His fastball reaches well into the 90s, but he also throws a slider, a changeup and a curve with similar mechanics. It's no wonder he struck out 33 batters in only 23.2 innings in starting duty last September.

Another similarity to Santana includes the way the Twins have handled Liriano. The Twins like to develop pitchers slowly to make sure they have what it takes to be successful at the Major League level. After they received Liriano in the deal that sent current Chicago White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants, he spent two seasons in the their minor league system (2004-05). Late last season, Liriano received spot starts after the Twins were out of the post-season race. This season, Liriano was in a race with starting pitcher Scott Baker during spring training but lost the race and landed in the bullpen as a middle reliever. While Baker seems to have the potential to be a quality starter for the Twins, he simply doesn't compare to the upside potential of Liriano. However, his stint in the bullpen was probably due to the Twins wanting to bring him along slowly rather than Baker beating him out for the fifth spot in the rotation.

THE RISE TO THE ROTATION

In the previous section, we briefly mentioned Liriano's minor league career with the Twins in 2004-05. In 2004, with Single-A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain, Liriano experienced command issues and didn't post astronomical numbers, evidenced by his 1.38 WHIP at Fort Myers and 1.56 WHIP at New Britain. However, he did throw a total of 174 strikeouts in 156.2 innings.

In 2005, Liriano started the season with New Britain but wound up with the Triple-A Rochester club. His command issues seemed to correct themselves as he posted a respectable 1.25 WHIP while striking out 92 batters in 76.2 innings. At Rochester, Liriano became one of the biggest pitching prospects in baseball. With a 9-2 record, 1.78 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 112 strikeouts in 91 innings, Liriano was about as masterful as any pitcher could possibly be.

Late in the 2005 season, Liriano was called up to perform for the Twins. In bullpen and starting duties, Liriano performed admirably, even though his numbers don't reflect that. He did continue his wizardry of strikeouts, but got knocked around a bit.

Table: Francisco Liriano Stats with the Twins in 2004-05

Year	Team	Level	W	L	ERA	WHIP	IP	K	H	BB	ER	AVG
2004	Fort Myers	A	6	7	4.00	1.38	117.0	125	118	43	52	.269
2004	New Britain	AA	3	2	3.18	1.56	39.2	49	45	17	14	.287
2005	New Britain	AA	3	5	3.64	1.25	76.2	92	70	26	31	.242
2005	Rochester	AAA	9	2	1.78	0.88	91.0	112	56	24	18	.177
2005	Minnesota	MLB	1	2	5.70	1.10	23.2	33	19	7	15	.221

As Liriano entered spring training with the Twins before the 2006 season, he was locked in a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation with Baker. Liriano spent most of his time competing in the World Baseball Classic, eventually lost out to Baker and landing in the bullpen. Liriano found a mix of success and struggles in that duty. His successes came in the form of one win, one save and 32 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. His struggles found him in the forms of a WHIP of 1.39 and an opponent batting average of .293.

Table: Francisco Liriano 2006 Stats

Games	W	L	SV	IP	H	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	AVG
12	1	0	1	22.1	27	8	4	32	3.22	1.39	.293

Liriano gained valuable innings out of the bullpen mopping up the messes starting pitchers like Silva, Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse left behind. Silva became the first casualty of the starting rotation with Lohse following close behind. After going 2-6, with an ERA of 8.80, a WHIP of 1.70 and allowing batters to hit a Ty Cobb-like .363 average, Silva was shelved in favor of Liriano.

KNOCK... KNOCK... KNOCK...

As opportunity knocks for Liriano, the same should be said for fantasy squads that own him. If you've been patient and kept Liriano on your team, you should finally be rewarded for your effort. The obvious effect is the amount of innings he will get as a starting pitcher. Along with those innings should be a high number of strikeouts and hopefully some wins along the way.

Of course, as a young pitcher, Liriano will likely get knocked around at times. While his control improved greatly last season, he has had some difficulties at times this season. All you need to do is take a look at his WHIP and opponents' average against him this season. Even with a few starts under his belt in 2005 and pitching out of the pen this season, Liriano will go through some growing pains.

Overall, you should expect good things out of Liriano this season. He isn't being compared to Santana simply because he wears the same hat. You can expect high strikeout numbers mixed with some quality wins as long as he stays in the rotation. You should also be prepared for some of those starts to turn awry as he continues to work on location and getting some quality starts (five-plus innings).

One final thing you should be aware of is how the Twins plan on working him into those quality starts. Remember, the Twins don't like to bring along pitchers at a fast pace. Gardenhire has already stated Liriano will only get around 60 pitches in each start as he gets accustomed to higher pitch counts. That means even though he is a starting pitcher now, he will likely only get middle relief type innings in his first few games. After that, expect the Twins to let go of the reins as long as he pitches well.

Liriano has a tremendous upside as a starting pitcher, which we noted last season. If that potential is reached - or even partially achieved - this season, your fantasy team could have a new stud pitcher on its staff.  

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James Eberspacher

James Eberspacher has been Commissioner of a "high performance" fantasy football league since 1994. He has created an entertaining and challenging league by designing a unique scoring system and a creative sense of writing and style. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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