Eric Gagne, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers

April 12, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Bryce McRae
Edited by KFFL Staff

The Story So Far

Los Angeles Dodgers relief pitcher Eric Gagne was hoping his injury troubles would be over this season.  Last year he appeared in only 14 games all season, still notching eight saves in eight opportunities, but he opted to have season ending surgery on a nerve in his left elbow June 24, 2005. 

After recuperating and looking good through spring training, Gagne was ready to resume his role as the Dodgers' closer.  However, once the season was underway, Gagne confided to Dodgers trainer Stan Johnston that he was still experiencing pain in the elbow he had surgery on last year.  Apparently the nerve they moved last year was "jingling" (how he described it) and it made him jump every time he threw a pitch.  Gagne saw a specialist and they decided he needed have surgery on the elbow for the second time in the last year. 

The surgery wasn't the same as last year; this one would remove the nerve rather then just moving it.  Early guesses had him missing the whole year but a post-surgery prognosis put his return date closer to six to eight weeks.

What this means for the Dodgers (and your fantasy team)

It is impossible to say how Gagne will pitch when he returns.  Some scouts had said that his velocity this spring was down from what it had been in the past.  He was only topping 90-91 miles per hour instead of the faster stuff that he threw in the past.  He also has two curveballs, which are deadly, and a breaking ball that keeps hitters honest.  But his bread-and-butter pitch was his fastball, which used to hit as high as 98 miles per hour during the beginning of each season. 

However, the loss of velocity could also be due to Gagne pitching with the injury, and once he comes back, with all discomfort gone, he could be back to the Gagne that recorded 152 saves from 2002-2004.  When he is on, he is one of the most efficient closers in the majors, as evidenced by his 96 percent save rate over the time period.

Also note that Gagne would lose velocity on his fastball in the latter parts of each season, regardless of whether he was injured or not.  The fact he kept saving games and was dominant despite this loss of speed gives us an indication that even with the loss of "heat" on his fastball he can still perform the closer job more then ably.

Gagne will be able to throw again in approximately three weeks, and he could be back by mid-June, but in all likelihood it won't be until well after the All-Star break that he is healthy and pitching well.  This would be perfect for the Dodgers, who have high hopes for the playoffs. As long as they can stay in playoff contention, he should be in perfect condition if they make it.

However, this could spell disaster for your fantasy team.  By the time he returns and is healthy, you'll be so far behind in the saves category it won't make much of a difference that he is back.  However, Gagne should still hold decent trade value once he returns.

The Dodgers acquired relief pitcher Danys Baez from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the offseason, hoping to use him as a set-up man for Gagne, or as a closer in case Gagne wasn't fully healthy.  The latter came true and he has been thrust into the role as closer for the time being.

Baez saved 41 games last year for the Devil Rays after being acquired from Cleveland Indians.  He has a good fastball that can reach the mid to upper 90s but he needs to throw more strikes and develop his second and third pitches if he wants to climb into the elite closer category.

If you have Gagne on your team, look to pick up Baez if he is available, if not then you might take a look at relief pitcher Yhency Brazoban.  The converted outfielder has a good fastball that continually reaches 95 miles per hour, in addition to a slider which can reach the high 80s.  Brazoban was the reason why Dodgers general manager Paul DePodesta felt he could include reliever Guillermo Mota in a trade with the Florida Marlins during the 2005 season.  Brazoban has good potential as a closer and he could get a shot, but for now he will be used mainly as the set-up man for Baez.  If Baez fails however, Brazonban should be the next in line for the closer position.

Summary

The Gagne injury definitely hurts your fantasy team, but he is not worth cutting.  He should have a high value after the All-Star break and if you can find a decent stop-gap until then you will be sitting pretty.  It also helps his injury came this early in the season as there are still numerous closer positions that are up for grabs in the league (for example, Boston Red Sox relief pitchers Keith Foulke and Jon Papelbon are battling for the closer position there).  You should be able to scour the waiver wire and find at least one player who is in position to get saves, depending on the size of your league.

Pick up Baez if he is available and as a backup option go for Brazonban (who has already been given one save opportunity since Gagne went down).  It is hard to know how Gagne will pitch when he comes back.  He is still young (turned 29 in January 2006) so his body should be able to rebound from it.  Hold onto him, sign someone to fill the hole and pay the dividends in the home stretch of the season.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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